UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No way with a retreating confluence is this possible correct, especially with that perfect low placement... The cutoff is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GGEM tends to be over amped in the medium range so it's likely come back to reality a bit I agree but it's nowhere near the GFS in terms of northern precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18-20 inches for the city, north to south, on the GGEM. http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2016012000/nyc/cmc_snow_acc_nyc_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Check into the h5 and h7 (I don't have time to look right now) , and look for differences there. Also, QPF are notorious for having issues. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No way with a retreating confluence is this possible correct, especially with that perfect low placement... The cutoff is nuts No. It actually makes complete sense. The storm is smacking into a wall of dry air basically and it increases precip below that wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No way with a retreating confluence is this possible correct, especially with that perfect low placement... The cutoff is nuts A cutoff somewhat similar to that occurred in the Blizzard of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do you guys think the GFS could be too far North. I surely think so. I just don't know but after doing some analysis on the run, something seems off the way the low goes almost Straight North from South Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay. If someone could explain how it just jumps almost straight North after being south that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Check into the h5 and h7 (I don't have time to look right now) , and look for differences there. Also, QPF are notorious for having issues. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk H7?Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree but it's nowhere near the GFS in terms of northern precip Orientation of the trough axis on gfs allows for greater northern expansion of baroclinic leaf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS looks similiar to 18z GEFS. Not as good as the op run. 0.75 QPF for NYC with a sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Orientation of the trough axis on gfs allows for greater northern expansion of baroclinic leaf.Thanks for the explanation brother. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS looks similiar to 18z GEFS. Not as good as the op run. 0.75 QPF for NYC with a sharp cutoff. Has a large cluster north and west of the mean though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS looks similiar to 18z GEFS. Not as good as the op run. 0.75 QPF for NYC with a sharp cutoff. I personally think the GEFS looked much better than 18z.. A decent amount of ensembles are north and west.. I believe the 18z had 1 member north and west of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So whatever this parallel GFS thing is was a good hit Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do you guys think the GFS could be too far North. I surely think so. I just don't know but after doing some analysis on the run, something seems off the way the low goes almost Straight North from South Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay. If someone could explain how it just jumps almost straight North after being south that would be great. The dynamics of the closed upper low catch up to it on the coast and jump the low center north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just absolute frightening scenarios for the Jersey Shore on the GFS maps. Full moon with those winds I gotta wonder if we are venturing into dec 1992 territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC just updated. They threw out the Euro. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just absolute frightening scenarios for the Jersey Shore on the GFS maps. Full moon with those winds I gotta wonder if we are venturing into dec 1992 territory. The best case scenario would be to maybe have the peak winds in the early afternoon on Saturday, when it looks like tides will be low, but yeah, it will be very bad for at least one if not two high tides. Maybe the peak at least could be during a low tide. The back bays on Long Island as well as the LI Sound areas that flood during noreasters would also have a very rough couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WPC just updated. They threw out the Euro. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Brutal. AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL IN THE BLENDING PROCESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Forgive my ignorance but what is a "back bay"? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Forgive my ignorance but what is a "back bay"? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Large bodies of water that experience tides several hours after the ocean front for best example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Forgive my ignorance but what is a "back bay"? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk The best (and largest) example I can think of is Sandy Hook Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What I meant on Long Island were bays like the Great South Bay, Jamaica Bay, Moriches Bay, and parts of LI Sound that flood where the sound narrows and NE winds pile up water. The ocean sides will definitely take a pounding too and suffer severe erosion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How would canals in Copiague and amityville and the like fare through this?? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How did the 0Z UKMET run go? Came further north and tucked in but not there yet Anyone care to elaborate? At 12Z it was kind of Euro/UK vs. GFS/GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How would canals in Copiague and amityville and the like fare through this?? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I would expect flooding in areas that usually flood if the GFS is right for sure. A southern track like the Euro wouldn't be as bad since the stronger winds and piling of water would be south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone care to elaborate? At 12Z it was kind of Euro/UK vs. GFS/GGEM... from the graphics i saw still south ukmet. better maps out soon on the meteo sire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anyone care to elaborate? At 12Z it was kind of Euro/UK vs. GFS/GGEM... At 0Z it's GFS/GGM VS. UK The Euro is about to take the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Pretty noticeable difference so far through 42hrs... Western precip extends further, and storm a bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Def coming in slower through 60hr confluence seems much weaker than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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