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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Do you guys think the GFS could be too far North. I surely think so. I just don't know but after doing some analysis on the run, something seems off the way the low goes almost Straight North from South Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay. If someone could explain how it just jumps almost straight North after being south that would be great.

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Check into the h5 and h7 (I don't have time to look right now) , and look for differences there. Also, QPF are notorious for having issues.

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H7?

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Do you guys think the GFS could be too far North. I surely think so. I just don't know but after doing some analysis on the run, something seems off the way the low goes almost Straight North from South Carolina to the Chesapeake Bay. If someone could explain how it just jumps almost straight North after being south that would be great.

The dynamics of the closed upper low catch up to it on the coast and jump the low center north. 

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Just absolute frightening scenarios for the Jersey Shore on the GFS maps. Full moon with those winds I gotta wonder if we are venturing into dec 1992 territory.

The best case scenario would be to maybe have the peak winds in the early afternoon on Saturday, when it looks like tides will be low, but yeah, it will be very bad for at least one if not two high tides. Maybe the peak at least could be during a low tide. 

 

The back bays on Long Island as well as the LI Sound areas that flood during noreasters would also have a very rough couple of days. 

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How would canals in Copiague and amityville and the like fare through this??

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I would expect flooding in areas that usually flood if the GFS is right for sure. A southern track like the Euro wouldn't be as bad since the stronger winds and piling of water would be south of the area. 

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