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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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There is a much sharper cut off on the GGEM than the GFS on the Northern side.

I kinda buy the sharp cutoff on the northern side of the snow shield. These massive STJ-driven systems usually have confluence north of them that dry up the northern end of the snow. Jan 1996, PDII, Feb 2010, Dec 2009, and so on had sharp cutoffs. 

 

It's key that the S/W over Maine/Nova Scotia trends towards getting out of the way. That's what's causing the dry air to come down around it and the solution like the 12z Euro. 

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Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting

The two-low idea might be feedback driven to some extent. Models often try to blow up lows over the Gulf Stream that rob from the nearer to the coast system. I think that did happen during Juno last winter, which robbed NYC of the crippling snowstorm they were expected to get. 

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The confluence is still pretty strong on the GEM. It just gets out of the way just in time for our subforum. New England misses out. Then we do really well with the overrunning since it has no where to go but that can easily change. This isn't a win just yet.

Not even close. Does anybody know how the confluence on the 0z GGEM compared to it's previous run?

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The two-low idea might be feedback driven to some extent. Models often try to blow up lows over the Gulf Stream that rob from the nearer to the coast system. I think that did happen during Juno last winter, which robbed NYC of the crippling snowstorm they were expected to get.

Therefore which low should we follow? The one Close to coast or the one east of it?

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It's key that the S/W over Maine/Nova Scotia trends towards getting out of the way. That's what's causing the dry air to come down around it and the solution like the 12z Euro.

Exactly brother. Rgem alluded to this earlier..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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Therefore which low should we follow? The one Close to coast or the one east of it?

Usually the low driven by the upper level dynamics near the 500mb low wins out (in my experience, hehe). I remember Boxing Day and Dec 2009's storms having similar scares and the feedback-driven lows either didn't happen or not like the models showed. 

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Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting

The top analog for this one (96) had a similar feature. Actually if you read the official NWS write-up on it there were several lows to the east of the storm at various points of its evolution

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Can someone explain this to me.....

GFS same time frame.. Massive precip shield.. Low placement and strength, and high placement image.png

Now GGEM nearly identical low placement and strength, high placement, and a MUCH less pronounced precip shield, especially wester/norther edge image.png

It might be that second low to the east that the model places because of convection.
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Can someone explain this to me.....

GFS same time frame.. Massive precip shield.. Low placement and strength, and high placement attachicon.gifimage.png

Now GGEM nearly identical low placement and strength, high placement, and a MUCH less pronounced precip shield, especially wester/norther edgeattachicon.gifimage.png

Check into the h5 and h7 (I don't have time to look right now) , and look for differences there. Also, QPF are notorious for having issues.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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