UnionWeatherWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just woke up... And all I got to say is wow.. GGEM is a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is a much sharper cut off on the GGEM than the GFS on the Northern side. I kinda buy the sharp cutoff on the northern side of the snow shield. These massive STJ-driven systems usually have confluence north of them that dry up the northern end of the snow. Jan 1996, PDII, Feb 2010, Dec 2009, and so on had sharp cutoffs. It's key that the S/W over Maine/Nova Scotia trends towards getting out of the way. That's what's causing the dry air to come down around it and the solution like the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting Probably convective feedback associated with the strong convection and vort max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The confluence is still pretty strong on the GEM. It just gets out of the way just in time for our subforum. New England misses out. Then we do really well with the overrunning since it has no where to go but that can easily change. This isn't a win just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting The two-low idea might be feedback driven to some extent. Models often try to blow up lows over the Gulf Stream that rob from the nearer to the coast system. I think that did happen during Juno last winter, which robbed NYC of the crippling snowstorm they were expected to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If the GFS verifies verbatim the Jersey shore will be crippled. High tides, storm surge, 4 inches of liquid in the form of rain and snow, 60 mph sustained winds gusting to 70+ i'm sure for 40 hours? This may reach evac level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The confluence is still pretty strong on the GEM. It just gets out of the way just in time for our subforum. New England misses out. Then we do really well with the overrunning since it has no where to go but that can easily change. This isn't a win just yet. Not even close. Does anybody know how the confluence on the 0z GGEM compared to it's previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Within 3 days now....looks like tucked in low to delmarva then ene is the way we're going...good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The two-low idea might be feedback driven to some extent. Models often try to blow up lows over the Gulf Stream that rob from the nearer to the coast system. I think that did happen during Juno last winter, which robbed NYC of the crippling snowstorm they were expected to get. Therefore which low should we follow? The one Close to coast or the one east of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's key that the S/W over Maine/Nova Scotia trends towards getting out of the way. That's what's causing the dry air to come down around it and the solution like the 12z Euro.Exactly brother. Rgem alluded to this earlier.. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 20 + on the GGEM for NYC with more to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Therefore which low should we follow? The one Close to coast or the one east of it? Usually the low driven by the upper level dynamics near the 500mb low wins out (in my experience, hehe). I remember Boxing Day and Dec 2009's storms having similar scares and the feedback-driven lows either didn't happen or not like the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not even close. Does anybody know how the confluence on the 0z GGEM compared to it's previous run? GFS trended better with it. GGEM trended worse with it actually a bit. We still cash in but we now need to watch those trends. Let's see what the EURO does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gem=no mixing issues at all minus maybe montauk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tomorrow's 12z suite will be very important. The onshore system will be fully sampled and integrated into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 18z GFS Para is rolling in... http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160119 18 UTC¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is actually slightly south east of the GFS.. Perfect set up for the city.. Sharp cut for us NW... Model noise right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting, every 00z run in gem, the storm precipitation shifted south, every 12z run it shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How did the 0Z UKMET run go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How did the 0Z UKMET run go? Came further north and tucked in but not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting, every 00z run in gem, the storm precipitation shifted south, every 12z run it shifted northEvery off hour GFS 06/18z has been south, every main OP 12/00z has been north massive hits... Coincidence? Idk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Again cmc has 2 lows. Gfs tried that idea as well this run interesting The top analog for this one (96) had a similar feature. Actually if you read the official NWS write-up on it there were several lows to the east of the storm at various points of its evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM great run, however, within 2 days the northern extent of the 6" snow line has moved from northern Maine to central Connecticut lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can someone explain this to me..... GFS same time frame.. Massive precip shield.. Low placement and strength, and high placement Now GGEM nearly identical low placement and strength, high placement, and a MUCH less pronounced precip shield, especially wester/norther edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can someone explain this to me..... GFS same time frame.. Massive precip shield.. Low placement and strength, and high placement image.png Now GGEM nearly identical low placement and strength, high placement, and a MUCH less pronounced precip shield, especially wester/norther edge image.png It might be that second low to the east that the model places because of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It might be that second low to the east that the model places because of convection. It has to be.. I mean the High to the north is slightly south of the GFS but it wouldn't effect the northern fringe that significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM great run, however, within 2 days the northern extent of the 6" snow line has moved from northern Maine to central Connecticut lol The GGEM tends to be over amped in the medium range so it's likely come back to reality a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can someone explain this to me..... GFS same time frame.. Massive precip shield.. Low placement and strength, and high placement image.png Now GGEM nearly identical low placement and strength, high placement, and a MUCH less pronounced precip shield, especially wester/norther edgeimage.png Check into the h5 and h7 (I don't have time to look right now) , and look for differences there. Also, QPF are notorious for having issues. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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