dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Eastern LI has taint issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol so which is it..are their mixing issues No mixing issues West of the city, the R/S line gets very close to NYC for a short time but never quite makes it before collapsing back East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The usual mixing spots no one mixes in north or north central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Those snow totals are low for long island are there mixing issues? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NYC could easily pull 18+ out of that GFS run... If snow growth good and no mixing occurs... Close to 2" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Much further south with everything. Major change Looks good at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here comes the Canadian Pain Train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No, not half in the city. Not even close. Maybe Montauk Point, but that's even iffy. South from Monmouth Beach is a different story though. NE wind from there south goes over a long stretch of warm water. The snow map posted from Storm Vista if it's just 10:1 gets the city 10 inches. Doubt that's reliable though. Of course now the Canadian is probably going to come in south and smash all our snow dreams lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've been through a lot of storms, and regardless of what the GFS outputs, that's not going to mix in the five boroughs outside of (maybe) JFK. Manhattan, most of Brooklyn, most of Queens, and north shore would be fine. Especially with a nice cold antecedent airmass and good dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The surface gets to maybe 34-35 degrees on the GFS in Nassau/Queens but the rest of the profile stays below freezing. The real rain or mixing issues is where 850's creep above freezing for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If the low stalls near Ocean City, MD for a time like the GFS has it, it will be there long enough to wrap warm air in for the immediate coast on Long Island. The hope is if it does make it there, it moves east from there quickly, and if it does stall in a bad spot, that the precip mostly stops since there would also likely be a dryslot there. But holy- GFS has over 65 mph SUSTAINED winds on the NJ shore at the height of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also N+W sections cash in with higher ratios, 1.0-1.5 LE for most in the LHV 12/15:1 type ratios would be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The snow map posted from Storm Vista if it's just 10:1 gets the city 10 inches. Doubt that's reliable though. Of course now the Canadian is probably going to come in south and smash all our snow dreams lol.Nope its coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EarthlightI seriously just got chills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The heights are so much higher on the GFS and GGEM on the east coast. There's much less confluence on the GGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow.... The confluence gets out of the way just in time. Insane 500mb dynamics. This is gonna be a good one. Strap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Those snow totals are low for long island are there mixing issues? ?? It would help if people read before asking the same questions. Yes, there are mixing issues, mostly in Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wxbell has 19 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is a huge storm for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No, not half in the city. Not even close. Maybe Montauk Point, but that's even iffy. South from Monmouth Beach is a different story though. NE wind from there south goes over a long stretch of warm water. There are 0 mixing issues anywhere close to the city. The 0 like collapses S of AC Early on it will rain in AC but N of 195 it S plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is another insane solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wxbell has 19 inches for the city. Mind posting the whole graphic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is another massive hit as well, hasn't changed since Friday still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow.... The confluence gets out of the way just in time. Insane 500mb dynamics. This is gonna be a good one. Strap in. Yeh man. That got modeled in and the modeled saw the confluence and ran E. That feature relaxed tonight , so the center comes NE and crawls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Already 1.50" LE on the GGEM by 18z Saturday and the CCB hasn't even developed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is another massive hit as well, hasn't changed since Friday still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Canadian is just a monster hit. Both the CMC/GFS have had the confluence kicking out quicker than the 12z runs. We really need to see this continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mind posting the whole graphic? http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/2016012000/nyc/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nyc_20.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is a much sharper cut off on the GGEM than the GFS on the Northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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