mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro op and EPS keeps coming in south of the GFS and Canadian ops and their ensembles' tracksVerbatim the Euro is more than good enough for your area, but with that evolution there might be a cutoff to the north, doesn't look as string as some of our other storms though as there's no strong HP or particularly strong confluence to the north. But it's still far out so let's see where it goes the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro looks beautiful. 12+ for all. Not all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 the eurowx map is just ridiculous, 20+ inches from WV all the way to CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro op and EPS keeps coming in south of the GFS and Canadian ops and their ensembles' tracks The Canadian is nowhere close to the GFS. Not at 500 or surface. It's in the euro op and parallel camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What scares me is that the 12z ECM was mellowed out by hints of convective feedback at hours 141-150. This could have actually been even stronger than what was shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 What scares me is that the 12z ECM was mellowed out by hints of convective feedback at hours 141-150. This could have actually been even stronger than what was shown. Scared how? That the storm might trend weaker over the next few runs or that the storm could blow up even further? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Scared how? That the storm might trend weaker over the next few runs or that the storm could blow up even further? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Scary exciting. It could have been even stronger this past run without the possible modeling error. Good for those who love crippling snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 In that regard, it will be interesting to see what the new Parallel run does with this. The 12z run of the operational EC looks nearly identical to the 00z Parallel run. Scary exciting. It could have been even stronger this past run without the possible modeling error. Good for those who love crippling snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So far the 12z EPS is coming in better than the 00z so far Lots more agreement on a clean trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Noticeably more amplified this run by 120 More energy in the base of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So close to closing off on the mean which is incredible MSLP/Precip has a monster coming up the coast 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy cow... The EPS mean is something you'd see in a Synoptics class for school. That is just a wicked H5 setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah, the 12z EC ensemble is beautiful. It basically completely agrees with the operational run in terms of track but obviously as a mean this far out, it has much lower snowfall amounts in the 6-9 inch range area-wide and amounts over 1 foot in Western Virginia, Eastern West Virginia and the Boston area. The Control Run has roughly 20 inches in some locations around NJ and NYC and around 30 inches in Northwestern Virginia, west of D.C. and in West Virginia. It basically agrees with the operational run of the model however, just slightly north with the entire track, but almost identical. The main reason the ensemble mean is only showing 6-9 inches in our area is that it only hits our area with roughly half the members. Many of the other members are missing us to the south. So, if the operational run is correct with the track, then more of the individual ensemble members will come in line and snowfall amounts will gradually increase as they do so. Unless of course those half are correct and it does miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Holy cow... The EPS mean is something you'd see in a Synoptics class for school. That is just a wicked H5 setup Yea, it's a huge hit, especially for the coast, it's SE of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 No words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That's really impressive. When it comes to major systems, the Euro does very well even at days 5-7. Not convinced that it'll play out this way until consistency prevails for a few days but I thought it was unlikely we'd leave this pattern quietly with teleconnections lining up and an AO near -5 prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That banana high to the north is something we haven't seen in over a decade. Very interesting trends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Even the JMA is 1-2 feet verbatim, and that's 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Yeah basically the only models missing us to the south right now are the GFS (kind of) and NAVGEM. Not fair though, the UKMET might be doing the same thing. Gotta wait and see what happens. Even the JMA is 1-2 feet verbatim, and that's 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Everyone so quite is the GFS not in our time frame yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Everyone so quite is the GFS not in our time frame yet Tropical Tidbits is only out to hour 78. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS looking really good so far phasing at hr 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z Friday major snow storm going on in DCA to BWi Light snow to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Colder run, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mid Atlantic absolutely crushed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Glad this run stopped taking the primary so far North anyway, that's what I will take away from this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's still snowing at 18z Saturday...what a long event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 987 and jersey/NYC,LI are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Sharp NW cut off on the GFS near EWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 984 east of Delmarva 95 from DCA to Bos crushed Verbatim mid Atlantic does the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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