jan17 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Figure some people would like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just wondering if this storm would be considered a Miller A or a Miller B? I saw mention on one post that this storm was easier to forecast in the longer term being a Miller A; but also saw mention of redevelopment off the coast being a key which sounds more like a Miller B. Trying to learn the dynamics going on with this storm however it turns out. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/1415-Miller-A-vs-Miller-BMiller A vs Miller B Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Figure some people would like this Almost identical to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Almost identical to GFS I was just about to write this lol.. Atleast for the NYC area it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think it'll be worse than that if it continues. PHL will likely get squat and DCA may even be somewhat fringed that's a big WOW even DC I thought they werw right in the middle of the safe zone. In 3 hours and 10 minutes we find out if today's events were a blip or the beginning of a clear and major trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, the good news would be that the further offshore tracks would be better from a coastal flooding standpoint. The 18z GFS keeps the 50+ knot winds well offshore now. There would probably still be blizzard conditions though for coastal sections, especially the NJ coast. 18z GFS wasn't bad for this subforum and would still be a MECS for NYC south and east, but it wouldn't take much more of a suppressed track to make it more for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 that's a big WOW even DC I thought they werw right in the middle of the safe zone. In 3 hours and 10 minutes we find out if today's events were a blip or the beginning of a clear and major trendNam @ 84 is before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, the good news would be that the further offshore tracks would be better from a coastal flooding standpoint. The 18z GFS keeps the 50+ knot winds well offshore now. There would probably still be blizzard conditions though for coastal sections, especially the NJ coast. 18z GFS wasn't bad for this subforum and would still be a MECS for NYC south and east, but it wouldn't take much more of a suppressed track to make it more for many. Or a further N track to be beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know the trend has been south but why aren't more optimistic that the typical north trend with southern stream systems the last 48 hours will happen here? Just seems we often see this south move 3 days out only to see it come back. I know 2010 was bad but this started with a further north look and is coming with more of a sw to ne trajectory then that did. I expect a northward correction in the final 48 hours. As long as this stays close like this your not in a bad spot IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know this might sound lame, but its a whole new ball game tonight with all the players entering the field on the West Coast. Forget any model run prior to 0z, put aside any tick, shift, adjustment, or otherwise. The real tracking begins tonight imho and I have said this all week. Tonights suite with the new data is the foundation for the weekend forecast, not what a model showed 48 hours ago, or even 12 hours ago. Lets see what 0z gives us tonight and take it from there the next 3 days. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know the trend has been south but why aren't more optimistic that the typical north trend with southern stream systems the last 48 hours will happen here? Just seems we often see this south move 3 days out only to see it come back. I know 2010 was bad but this started with a further north look and is coming with more of a sw to ne trajectory then that did. I expect a northward correction in the final 48 hours. As long as this stays close like this your not in a bad spot IMO. I think that Feb 10' storm really did leave quite an impression on us so it's only natural to be concerned with these suppression trends! Hopefully we do get that northward correction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know the trend has been south but why aren't more optimistic that the typical north trend with southern stream systems the last 48 hours will happen here? Just seems we often see this south move 3 days out only to see it come back. I know 2010 was bad but this started with a further north look and is coming with more of a sw to ne trajectory then that did. I expect a northward correction in the final 48 hours. As long as this stays close like this your not in a bad spot IMO. Agreed, looking good imo hoff, too far nw late yesterday, corrected we now, hopefully we get a wobble back...like the last 2 coastal storms trended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think that Feb 10' storm really did leave quite an impression on us so it's only natural to be concerned with these suppression trends! Hopefully we do get that northward correction though.Don't forget the blizzard of 2003 (or 2002?) also was supposed to be way too far south due to that banana high and it eventually just road up the coast. AO is actually trending more positive than I first believed.. May be enough breathing room for this to come up north, even if that pesky s/w attempts to wreek it's habit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I just find it hard to believe that South of the Mason-Dixon line could have a widespread 2'+ of snowfall. While north of there has cirrus clouds. That's super rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ralph, does tonight's suite definitely have the data or might it wait until tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ralph, does tonight's suite definitely have the data or might it wait until tomorrow?From my understanding, the storm will not be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 From my understanding, the storm will not be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk ^^thisA good portion has already begun moving inland though the entire entity will not be fully sampled until 12z wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ^^this A good portion has already begun moving inland though the entire entity will not be fully sampled until 12z wednesday. The big feature with the 00z suite, imho, is the s/w feature that earthlight spoke about which is suppressing the height fields. This feature, while not sampled quite fully either, has huge implications with regards to the eventual evolution of our storm. The 18z Rgem showed this feature being more sheared and quicker than the Euro or Gfs depicted at 12z. Is this just noise, or is the Rgem on to something? That remains to be seen, however, with the Rgem being a damn good short range, I tend to believe we will see a different solution at 00z. Furthermore, the AO is relaxing very quickly (as the AO tends to chat get quickly from my experience) and this is also going to allow less suppression imho. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sref looks great.major lean northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Srefs look nice.. Granted it's the srefs take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonight is rally time. 27 championships style , not like that crap team from queens. The comeback starts now. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sref looks great.major lean northward.What kind of numbers are we talking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The big feature with the 00z suite, imho, is the s/w feature that earthlight spoke about which is suppressing the height fields. This feature, while not sampled quite fully either, has huge implications with regards to the eventual evolution of our storm. The 18z Rgem showed this feature being more sheared and quicker than the Euro or Gfs depicted at 12z. Is this just noise, or is the Rgem on to something? That remains to be seen, however, with the Rgem being a damn good short range, I tend to believe we will see a different solution at 00z. Furthermore, the AO is relaxing very quickly (as the AO tends to chat get quickly from my experience) and this is also going to allow less suppression imho. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk True. If the Euro is overplaying that northern stream feature or if it can get out of the way, the storm shouldn't have an issue amplifying enough to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sref looks great.major lean northward. They really got horrendous after that upgrade where they incorporated the NMM with ARW members. I think one of them has a severe north bias but I forget which one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonight is rally time. 27 championships style , not like that crap team from queens. The comeback starts now. Good luck Forecast or trying to psych-out the models? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Tonight is rally time. 27 championships style , not like that crap team from queens. The comeback starts now. Good luck We're in desperate need of a Scott Brosius pinch hit 3 run homer in the bottom of the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We're in desperate need of a Scott Brosius pinch hit 3 run homer in the bottom of the 8th Ill take Tino Martinez game tying grand slam please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is there a way you guys post images when you talk about a specific model showing a depiction ion. It would help us weenies that are not really experienced with model searching and reading in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not that it matters much for this model but the 00z NAM initialized with most of the energy still offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know the trend has been south but why aren't more optimistic that the typical north trend with southern stream systems the last 48 hours will happen here? Just seems we often see this south move 3 days out only to see it come back. I know 2010 was bad but this started with a further north look and is coming with more of a sw to ne trajectory then that did. I expect a northward correction in the final 48 hours. As long as this stays close like this your not in a bad spot IMO. Arent the computer models better now than when pdII and 96 trended north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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