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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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The ridge out west looked much better, it's just that pesky s/w rotating around the PV extending into New England. Heights are having trouble recovering, but it must be emphasized that these s/w tend to move very quickly and that while models are picking up on it right now, if this feature is is in a different position than expected later tonight, the new model suite could very easily 'trend' back towards a more northerly solution.

Edited for a typo and to correct wording

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Wait for the 0z runs before anyone panics. Its been what, 7+ consistent runs before today of similar outcomes? Then today happens and we suddenly have a "trend" south? If models havent handled the energy coming in correctly absolutely nothing any model has put out the last week matters at all.

Relax lol.

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Exactly, but that's trend forecasting, which has never been shown to have any skill.  There's no evidence that the model going 50mi south at 6Z increases the odds of it going an additional 50mi south at 12Z, other than the fact that models get more accurate the closer you get to the event (though that's not that big of an effect over a 6 hour interval at this range).

 

Put differently, it's almost as likely that the 12Z run would shift back north.

 

This run didn't change the blended mean.  It's a classic example of a hold-serve.

 

Exactly.  The models at 12Z don't "know" anything about the model runs 12 hours earlier.  They're independent "events" with completely independent data inputs.  Obviously humans can see the differences from run to run and say they're "trends" but that's just pattern recognition and not a true trend (like if one sees temperatures getting warmer, on average, every day in March - that's a real trend with a real underlying physical explanation).  

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The ridge out west looked much better, it's just that pesky s/w rotating around the PV extending into New England (as earthlight pointed out). Heights are having trouble recovering, but it must be emphasized that these s/w tend to move very quickly and that while models are picking up on it right now, if this feature is is in a different position than expected later tonight, the new model suite could very easily 'trend' back towards a more northerly solution.

Edited for a typo and to correct wording

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This is a great point about the s/w feature in E. Canada. If that clears faster...could be totally different outcome than currently depicted

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Upton

 

 

 

THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS HOWEVER WITH THE EXACT DETAILS...AND IF YOU
TOOK THE 12Z
ECMWF...PORTIONS OF THE CWA WOULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOW
TOTAL OUT OF THE EVENT. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER AND MORE
SLY TRACK...AND WHAT IS CONCERNING FOR SNOW LOVERS IS THAT THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDING TO MODEL CREDIBILITY.
THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED AND
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA IN THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENTAL PHASE OF THE STORM.
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Exactly.  The models at 12Z don't "know" anything about the model runs 12 hours earlier.  They're independent "events" with completely independent data inputs.  Obviously humans can see the differences from run to run and say they're "trends" but that's just pattern recognition and not a true trend (like if one sees temperatures getting warmer, on average, every day in March - that's a real trend with a real underlying physical explanation).  

Again, the importance of personal/social interpretation of what appear to be clear scientific facts, which will have little bearing on how many gallons of milk will be sold or how many snowblowers will be purchased by tomorrow afternoon....because people by now have heard BIG SNOW and 96 already....but thank you both for clarifying this important fact, each run is not a trend but an independent sample, correct? And yet something tells me even professionals are guilty of seeing a trend; we are hardwired for it.

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I don't think that's fair - the article is balanced and objective.

 

Frankly, somebody quoted what Kocin wrote this morning and there was a great and subsequent bowing to The Oracle. When the Washington Post does the same thing, that doesn't render it "hysteria".

 

I've head a LOT of complaining about the media relative to this storm and I have to say that, from the coverage I've seen and read, everyone has been very careful to point out the level of uncertainty that exists at this point.

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This will either continue south and put everyone here out of it or the north trend will start, it won't stay as is. There are enough factors in play that will make it trend north I believe.[/quote

Allot of reputable meteorologists are expecting a correction north. It can't be stated enough that things are not set in stone yet. Anyone talking in certainty is in for disappointment. I think the only thing that's close to certain is we see our biggest snow fall so far this year and DC gets hammered

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Its clearly to early to make any pronouncements but should the current trends continue this will be 2010 all over again. We shall see, but it certainly is looking like we all underestimated the possible confluence and what it can do

I think it'll be worse than that if it continues. PHL will likely get squat and DCA may even be somewhat fringed

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Just wondering if this storm would be considered a Miller A or a Miller B? I saw mention on one post that this storm was easier to forecast in the longer term being a Miller A; but also saw mention of redevelopment off the coast being a key which sounds more like a Miller B. Trying to learn the dynamics going on with this storm however it turns out.

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