UnionWeatherWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18Z GEFS are SOUTH 12z. Trend is clear and alive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Models don't have trends. We make trends of models. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ridge out west looked much better, it's just that pesky s/w rotating around the PV extending into New England. Heights are having trouble recovering, but it must be emphasized that these s/w tend to move very quickly and that while models are picking up on it right now, if this feature is is in a different position than expected later tonight, the new model suite could very easily 'trend' back towards a more northerly solution. Edited for a typo and to correct wording Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wait for the 0z runs before anyone panics. Its been what, 7+ consistent runs before today of similar outcomes? Then today happens and we suddenly have a "trend" south? If models havent handled the energy coming in correctly absolutely nothing any model has put out the last week matters at all. Relax lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GEFS Doesn't look like Feb 2010 to me. This is still precip from an ensemble mean at a little more than 4 days out. It's trimmed on the northern side, but from LI south it's pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Exactly, but that's trend forecasting, which has never been shown to have any skill. There's no evidence that the model going 50mi south at 6Z increases the odds of it going an additional 50mi south at 12Z, other than the fact that models get more accurate the closer you get to the event (though that's not that big of an effect over a 6 hour interval at this range). Put differently, it's almost as likely that the 12Z run would shift back north. This run didn't change the blended mean. It's a classic example of a hold-serve. Exactly. The models at 12Z don't "know" anything about the model runs 12 hours earlier. They're independent "events" with completely independent data inputs. Obviously humans can see the differences from run to run and say they're "trends" but that's just pattern recognition and not a true trend (like if one sees temperatures getting warmer, on average, every day in March - that's a real trend with a real underlying physical explanation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ridge out west looked much better, it's just that pesky s/w rotating around the PV extending into New England (as earthlight pointed out). Heights are having trouble recovering, but it must be emphasized that these s/w tend to move very quickly and that while models are picking up on it right now, if this feature is is in a different position than expected later tonight, the new model suite could very easily 'trend' back towards a more northerly solution. Edited for a typo and to correct wording Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk This is a great point about the s/w feature in E. Canada. If that clears faster...could be totally different outcome than currently depicted Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Upton THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS HOWEVER WITH THE EXACT DETAILS...AND IF YOUTOOK THE 12Z ECMWF...PORTIONS OF THE CWA WOULD GET A DUSTING OF SNOWTOTAL OUT OF THE EVENT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A SLOWER AND MORESLY TRACK...AND WHAT IS CONCERNING FOR SNOW LOVERS IS THAT THIS ISVERY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ADDING TO MODEL CREDIBILITY. THEGFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED ANDWITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE MAINDIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA IN THE INITIALDEVELOPMENTAL PHASE OF THE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z versus 12z... One can easily see the precipitation shield has shrunk, bit the heavier amounts moved north towards long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Exactly. The models at 12Z don't "know" anything about the model runs 12 hours earlier. They're independent "events" with completely independent data inputs. Obviously humans can see the differences from run to run and say they're "trends" but that's just pattern recognition and not a true trend (like if one sees temperatures getting warmer, on average, every day in March - that's a real trend with a real underlying physical explanation). Again, the importance of personal/social interpretation of what appear to be clear scientific facts, which will have little bearing on how many gallons of milk will be sold or how many snowblowers will be purchased by tomorrow afternoon....because people by now have heard BIG SNOW and 96 already....but thank you both for clarifying this important fact, each run is not a trend but an independent sample, correct? And yet something tells me even professionals are guilty of seeing a trend; we are hardwired for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One lone member Northwest of the mean surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The hysteria has already started: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/weather-service-textbook-east-coast-snowstorm-could-resemble-all-time-greats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The hysteria has already started: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/weather-service-textbook-east-coast-snowstorm-could-resemble-all-time-greats/ I don't think that's fair - the article is balanced and objective. Frankly, somebody quoted what Kocin wrote this morning and there was a great and subsequent bowing to The Oracle. When the Washington Post does the same thing, that doesn't render it "hysteria". I've head a LOT of complaining about the media relative to this storm and I have to say that, from the coverage I've seen and read, everyone has been very careful to point out the level of uncertainty that exists at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GEFS Max res has NYC right on the edge of 6"+ and it gets really ugly NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will either continue south and put everyone here out of it or the north trend will start, it won't stay as is. There are enough factors in play that will make it trend north I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will either continue south and put everyone here out of it or the north trend will start, it won't stay as is. There are enough factors in play that will make it trend north I believe. Agree here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This will either continue south and put everyone here out of it or the north trend will start, it won't stay as is. There are enough factors in play that will make it trend north I believe. What are those factors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ray in SNE says the para EC is better for them, an even foot in Boston... Anyone have access, how's it look down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm is down to 16" from about 18-20" on recent previous runs. There is about 1/3" less precip. but it is all snow at a 13:1 overall ratio. It also starts precip. 3 hrs. later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ray in SNE says the para EC is better for them, an even foot in Boston... Anyone have access, how's it look down here? May have been looking at 00z. No one can find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18Z Cobb Snow Algorithm is down to 16" from about 18-20" on recent previous runs. There is about 1/3" less precip. but it is all snow at a 13:1 overall ratio. It also starts precip. 3 hrs. later. Talk about not seeing the forest through the trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This will either continue south and put everyone here out of it or the north trend will start, it won't stay as is. There are enough factors in play that will make it trend north I believe.[/quote Allot of reputable meteorologists are expecting a correction north. It can't be stated enough that things are not set in stone yet. Anyone talking in certainty is in for disappointment. I think the only thing that's close to certain is we see our biggest snow fall so far this year and DC gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ray in SNE says the para EC is better for them, an even foot in Boston... Anyone have access, how's it look down here? It hasn't been run since 00z Ray is wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This model is literally like flushing a couple million down the toilet every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ray in SNE says the para EC is better for them, an even foot in Boston... Anyone have access, how's it look down here?Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its clearly to early to make any pronouncements but should the current trends continue this will be 2010 all over again. We shall see, but it certainly is looking like we all underestimated the possible confluence and what it can do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Its clearly to early to make any pronouncements but should the current trends continue this will be 2010 all over again. We shall see, but it certainly is looking like we all underestimated the possible confluence and what it can do I think it'll be worse than that if it continues. PHL will likely get squat and DCA may even be somewhat fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seawind Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just wondering if this storm would be considered a Miller A or a Miller B? I saw mention on one post that this storm was easier to forecast in the longer term being a Miller A; but also saw mention of redevelopment off the coast being a key which sounds more like a Miller B. Trying to learn the dynamics going on with this storm however it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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