NYCGreg Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For what it's worth, last year we saw the Euro make small eastward movements toward the remaining model consensus, not far from what the GFS is doing now. We threw those out as subtle shifts, but we know better now. I'm not saying that is definitely happening here, but I don't see how anyone could discount this as just noise, when any more of a shift south and we are in big trouble. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Even with the GFS pretty much giving us all 10-15 I'm concerned about the south trend. At h5 this was a real nudge to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 here's a few runs from 18z just now to 00z this morning...you can easily see its been up down up down all day.. calm yourselves everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SN21 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Looks like Dec 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I hope you realize that one more shift like that at 00z and you would be close to the Euro solution. Who's to say it doesn't shift north again? This puppy still hasn't been fully sampled. Lots of model runs left before this one is decided... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For what it's worth, last year we saw the Euro make small eastward movements toward the remaining model consensus, not far from what the GFS is doing now. We threw those out as subtle shifts, but we know better now. I'm not saying that is definitely happening here, but I don't see how anyone could discount this as just noise, when any more of a shift south and we are in big trouble. JMHO. And that was a classic example of what I'm trying to say here. Even the Euro depictions last year showed a tight gradient and that we were close to the gradient - on the good side, but close. So any reasonable forecast always recognized that there was a possibility that we might end up on the wrong side of the gradient (and the plumes showed that). It's why its so important in these storms to look not just as QPF but at gradients, and think of it as a mean with a 1SD range around it. You might have a 1.00+-.25, or you can have a 1.50+-1.00. When you're on the northern fringe like we are, you've got a high mean but also high variance. What the 12Z euro added is variance; this run doesn't take that variance away. But our mean is still very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For what it's worth, last year we saw the Euro make small eastward movements toward the remaining model consensus, not far from what the GFS is doing now. We threw those out as subtle shifts, but we know better now. I'm not saying that is definitely happening here, but I don't see how anyone could discount this as just noise, when any more of a shift south and we are in big trouble. JMHO. I concur, we cant self deceive. But I think within 24 hours we will have a far clearer idea so we wait, we have no other choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Candidly, it's SO rare for there to be unwavering consensus so far out (from the vantage point of say last night looking towards Friday night) that I was expecting something like this. I doubt we have the final answer. Would not be surprised to see the Euro and GFS switch up on which is better for the metro area, nor see places expecting 30" end up with rain....or we all miss and the storm goes wide right altogether. It's only Tuesday folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's really elementary that some weenies on here need to be told were 3.5 days away.. Stop hugging each days runs.. Lemme show you something This was Monday's 00z GFS, you guys were all on board, huge snows for every yayaya Here's the next 06z GFS, uh oh was this a tick toward the euro... Look out everyone north of NYC storm cancel alert... Here's todays 12z... Yay storm back on for everyone big hit Andddd here's the 18z.. And.. Well you know the rest I smell...... NO TREND, whatsoever... so can we please calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's really elementary that some weenies on here need to be told were 3.5 days away.. Stop hugging each days runs.. Lemme show you something This was Monday's 00z GFS, you guys were all on board, huge snows for every yayaya image.png Here's he next 06z GFS, uh oh was this a tick toward the euro... Look out everyone north of NYC storm cancel alert... image.png Here's today man 12z... Yay storm back on for everyone big hit image.png Andddd here's the 18z.. And.. Well you know the rest image.png I smell...... NO TREND, whatsoever... so can we please calm down really looking at these images you don't see a trend ???? No one is saying that it will or will not happen, but you really don't see differences from run to run on the images you posted??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't look at this too long, not responsible for the strained eyes of those looking for a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 here's a few runs from 18z just now to 00z this morning...you can easily see its been up down up down all day.. calm yourselves everyone From a layperson's perspective it appears the snowshield is sinking progressively south from run to run despite local perturbations that create pockets of heavier and lighter precip in localized areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 really looking at these images you don't see a trend ???? No one is saying that it will or will not happen, but you really don't see differences from run to run on the images you posted??? Yea 06z is a 50 miles shift south from 00z, 12z is a 50 mile shift north from 06z and now 18z is a 50 mile shift south again.. Do you know what a trend is? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 really looking at these images you don't see a trend ???? No one is saying that it will or will not happen, but you really don't see differences from run to run on the images you posted??? I don't I see a model wavering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yea 06z is a 50 miles shift south from 00z, 12z is a 50 mile shift north from 06z and now 18z is a 50 mile shift south again.. Do you know what a trend is? Lolthen let me clarify my statement the precip field is trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I do believe there could be a sharp northern edge to the heavy snow due to the confluence up north, so whoever gets shafted by that final 50 miles will feel awfully robbed by the end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The past few GFS runs were a bit misleading IMO. We get the big totals, but mainly because of a trend towards a weaker, more southern solution putting us closer into the heaviest snowfall. If this trend continues, our storm will go from a 10-20 inch monster, to an average 3-6 inch dumper. Here are the comparisons of todays 18z and 12z run. Notice how the low is placed more to the south with each run. This isn't a good thing, especially if it continues to show it with better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 then let me clarify my statement the precip field is trending south That doesn't mean it will keep going in that direction though. Things could get sampled and storm get be back in the sweet spot. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From Earthlight~ The biggest difference on this run by far was the changed evolution of the pattern across Eastern Canada. The GFS is now swinging a spoke around a larger upper level low exactly as our storm is amplifying up the Mississippi River Valley. Instead of mid level heights being amplified up the coast as the PVA nears the seaboard, they are actually compressed over New England due to this confluent troughing. This is a huge issue if it is correct and/or trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That doesn't mean it will keep going in that direction though. Things could get sampled and storm get be back in the sweet spot. never said it would just stating where the trends have gone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2 days ago we were talking about a historic storm for the area...now, some areas of the board will struggle to get 6 inches. Definite trend, guys...As of now, DC/Baltimore/Mid Atlantic seems to be the place to be if you want the monster. Obviously things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 being a meteorologist we dont follow too into the 6z and 18z runs Meh, I've never believed that "off run" stuff. Quite a few mets over here actually discussed that myth some time ago, and it was pretty much decided that it didn't have much merit. I wouldn't play into it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z nogaps is a miss... damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 then let me clarify my statement the precip field is trending southQPF is shown to have her poor accuracy this far out. Look at h5 and the lp placement. H5 is my rule of thumb this far out. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not that it really makes much difference but here is the verification chart for the various GFS runs. 18z is currently the least accurate of the bunch, but of course that could very well mean that it is less likely to figure out that the EC was correct and it will catch up on the next run. We just don't know. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/ Meh, I've never believed that "off run" stuff. Quite a few mets over here actually discussed that myth some time ago, and it was pretty much decided that it didn't have much merit. I wouldn't play into it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan17 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 funny thing i have been forecasting 13 years now. I learn new crap every week. I am always open to other opinions. I believe it is way too early. I refuse make snow predictions until 24-36 hours before the event. Everything else is based off trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 QPF is shown to have her poor accuracy this far out. Look at h5 and the lp placement. H5 is my rule of thumb this far out. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Like Superstorm said, I'd be very surprised if the precip field remains that compact with the RH at 500 and 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now I have issues with the precipitation on the GFS With this kind of RH field you would not see the QPF so closely packed into the surface low like the model is showing. There would be an extension to the N and W as the cyclone matures. Doesn't add up THIS^^^^^ anyone that thinks the models "precip" shields are something to look at 3.5 days out, is only a model watcher... No way that northern shield cuts off with dynamics like this.. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Enough discussion about people and how wrong or right they are. Discuss the storm or watch from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 THIS^^^^^ anyone that thinks the models "precip" shields are something to look at 3.5 days out, is only a model watcher... No way that northern shield cuts off with dynamics like this.. Period There's a closed 534dm @ 500mb right off the NJ/DE coast. It also looks like the GFS wants to place a LP right near an area of convection and then shortly gets rid of it (not completely sure if this makes a huge difference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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