SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No, the Euro parallel doesn't run at 12z. Yesterday it didn't run at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yesterday it didn't run at all It seems to be running sporadically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That was a notable forecast discussion put out by the NWS State College, PA. earlier. For new people it is a great read for classic pattern snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Possible yes... Likely no, if this was a 1 or even 2 model storm to this point, I'd say yes... Model concensus is overwhelming, the pattern is ripe, all the ingredients are there in terms of High pressure weakening and a closed of low... No reason at this point IMO to think this will go OTS.. Not saying it isn't possible, but there isn't any evidence to support that solution Model consensus certainly would seem to make a major shift in storm evolution less likely, although it's always possible that some of the key initial conditions, which are critical to model accuracy (and whose errors propagate through every forward time increment in the models), are either inaccurate or were poorly sampled - and since these ICs are presumably all identically fed into every model, one could imagine all the models see the same resulting error. Unlikely, but possible. I posted this yesterday, but received no comments. It's at least interesting that last night's models and this morning's models, presumably all fed identical (or close to it) initial conditions, provided near consensus last night vs. widely divergent outcomes today. Obviously, the physics, chemistry and thermodynamics (and key assumptions about each) used in the models are somewhat different, as are the numerical methods used to "solve" the large number of resulting differential equations over time, since these non-linear systems can't be truly "solved" mathematically and require numerical approximations (as are grid spacing and numerical interpolation routines to flesh out the 3-D space) - the question is why such a significant divergence in outcomes today vs. yesterday? Any pros out there care to comment? Also, at 0Z tonight, will we know which model predicted the 12 hours from 7 am to today to 7 pm tonight best and would we then say that model X was garbage, but model Y was spot on? Do they do diagnostics on how each model run performed, for the next 12/24/etc. hours? Pretty sure I've asked this before, but not sure I got an answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I posted this yesterday, but received no comments. It's at least interesting that last night's models and this morning's models, presumably all fed identical (or close to it) initial conditions, provided near consensus last night vs. widely divergent outcomes today. Obviously, the physics, chemistry and thermodynamics (and key assumptions about each) used in the models are somewhat different, as are the numerical methods used to "solve" the large number of resulting differential equations over time, since these non-linear systems can't be truly "solved" mathematically and require numerical approximations (as are grid spacing and numerical interpolation routines to flesh out the 3-D space) - the question is why such a significant divergence in outcomes today vs. yesterday? Any pros out there care to comment? Also, at 0Z tonight, will we know which model predicted the 12 hours from 7 am to today to 7 pm tonight best and would we then say that model X was garbage, but model Y was spot on? Do they do diagnostics on how each model run performed, for the next 12/24/etc. hours? Pretty sure I've asked this before, but not sure I got an answer... I disagree with 1 main point... only 1 model was "widely divergent" and the euro wasn't even all that much different from it 00z, continued to show strong confluence as it has.. The GFS was off slightly on the 06z but came right back full force with 12z.... And the GGEM, as I've been saying for days, has not moved since last Friday.. Same output.. 2 times a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Less optimistic for NYC slow lovers. NWS siding with the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Less snow potential attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 taunton MA AFD notes only the easternmost section of the vort may have been sampled and that it may not be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Less optimistic for NYC slow lovers. NWS siding with the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Less snow potential attm. How do u side with 2 models that are night and day.. Even the ensembles look nothing like the euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Less optimistic for NYC slow lovers. NWS siding with the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. Less snow potential attm. What makes this really intellectually lazy is that who the NWS sides with has nothing to do with snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can anyone distill in English for non-model readers what's going on? I apologize for the confusion... but I'm confused. Low confidence in what will happen in the nyc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z Parallel.... Delete when necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS looks a tad more amped through 42, location of the shortwave looks identical to 12z... anybody care to take the pbp from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GFS coming in. Slightly more confluence, but I like the trough orientation. Have to see if it digs too far like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS looks a tad more amped through 42, location of the shortwave looks identical to 12z... anybody care to take the pbp from here? It looks pretty much the same so far. I doubt we see a euro type solutio here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GFS coming in. Slightly more confluence, but I like the trough orientation. Have to see if it digs too far like the Euro. It looks more amped up and about the same regarding the confluence to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Confluence is nearly identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS looks much better than the Euro. The confluence is quite a bit further Northeast than the Euro at 00z Friday which is a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It looks more amped up and about the same regarding the confluence to me. The ridge is very slightly flatter than 12z... might not dig as much, but it's definitely more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Trough is sharper on this run and its recovering quicker once past Arkansas. Heights look much better than the 12z ECM, but we'll see. I wouldn't be shocked to see a southward tick this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Closes off in nearly the same spot as 12z. The trough is a bit sharper as the energy is a bit more amped up. That's the only real difference I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 One thing to emphasize during the PBP. Despite just about everyone's assumptions, there's NO evidence that trend is relevant in assessing model output. I.e., the best way to make a forecast is to consider all the model runs you have, weighting more recent runs accordingly, but you don't see any signal by giving any weight to "trend". I.e., take 'trend' for what it really is - illusory signal that just happens to be random walk lined up in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The big changes are in eastern Canada. If the heights don't recover, then it's going to get pretty dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The big changes are in eastern Canada. If the heights don't recover, then it's going to get pretty dicey. Closed 500mb low over KY shifted SW by a few miles. Maybe a tick more than just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS closes off in KY/TN This is the critical point. That ULL needs to gain some latitude 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Okay, good. The low is gaining lat as it moves ENE instead of the due east like the ECM had. Snowing in EWR by 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hr 81 light snow to NYC mid Atlantic and snj getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Okay, good. The low is gaining lat as it moves ENE instead of the due east like the ECM had. Snowing in EWR by 81 Yeah this is nothing like the Euro. If the Euro hadn't made such a big shift I would have just considered this noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 84 is where the difference is. No comparison to the 12z ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 snowing into ewr by hr 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 09z Saturday mod snow to NYC door step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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