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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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I think everyone needs to take a breath.. Euro spooked too many people.. The ensembles are FAR more robust than the OP which usually mean the OPS wrong, and I can't think of anytime where the ensembles haven't followed the trend of the OP, we gotta stop paying attention to the latest model as if it's "what's going to happen as of this moment"... It's another piece of the puzzle

 

Very much agreed.. too many people live and die by the EURO.  It really is the only one showing this sort of thing.  At least the mean is a warning criteria snowfall for the area.

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I think everyone needs to take a breath.. Euro spooked too many people.. The ensembles are FAR more robust than the OP which usually mean the OPS wrong, and I can't think of anytime where the ensembles haven't followed the trend of the OP, we gotta stop paying attention to the latest model as if it's "what's going to happen as of this moment"... It's another piece of the puzzle

The ensembles have followed the Op several times this year and both ended up wrong. I wasn't going to be swayed too much by the ensembles of this run unless they were insanely NW or SE of the Op.

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Well that is certainly a good thing... should bring back some sanity to the forum.  In most cases when the mean is opposite the OP... the OP is usually wrong.

I'm not seeing the mean as opposite the op, but rather as the mean trending in the direction of the op, but that's what one would expect given identical initialization parameters...that doesn't mean the init parameters are correct however

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The eps is better but still took a pretty decent step toward a southern solution compared to 00z

The 12z EPS is south of the 0z EPS. The consistent moves south is very troubling. I had mentioned this when the threat first started, that suppression was a very real problem. Yesterday, I thought it may have been wrong, but now, there is evidence to support my initial thoughts. Let's see where the 0z runs take us
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Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm.

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Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm.

The NAM isn't even in range for our area yet, but it will be by tomorrow morning.

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Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt.

 

The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm.

 

Noticed that, too. the GFS has it at about 993 mb, the NAM, 997-998 mb.

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I think it's safe to say even if the GFS comes in with 3 to 4 feet that 95% of us will stay up for the king at 1 a.m.

 

If the GFS shows that, I'm throwing it out too. That's not what the models have consistently shown. That'd be a huge jump.

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