allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think everyone needs to take a breath.. Euro spooked too many people.. The ensembles are FAR more robust than the OP which usually mean the OPS wrong, and I can't think of anytime where the ensembles haven't followed the trend of the OP, we gotta stop paying attention to the latest model as if it's "what's going to happen as of this moment"... It's another piece of the puzzle Very much agreed.. too many people live and die by the EURO. It really is the only one showing this sort of thing. At least the mean is a warning criteria snowfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 But quite the step back It's been mentioned before, but the ensembles will never completely disagree with the OP anyhow, so to see it at least more north, let alone even further south than the OP is slightly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 anyone have snow map for completed EPS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think everyone needs to take a breath.. Euro spooked too many people.. The ensembles are FAR more robust than the OP which usually mean the OPS wrong, and I can't think of anytime where the ensembles haven't followed the trend of the OP, we gotta stop paying attention to the latest model as if it's "what's going to happen as of this moment"... It's another piece of the puzzle The ensembles have followed the Op several times this year and both ended up wrong. I wasn't going to be swayed too much by the ensembles of this run unless they were insanely NW or SE of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 The ensembles have followed the Op several times this year and both ended up wrong. I wasn't going to be swayed too much by the ensembles of this run unless they were insanely NW or SE of the Op. Are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EPS mean is better than the OP. It would at least bring warning level snows to NW NJ. It isn't as good as 00z however. All I meant by this was that the significant snow line went back to NW NJ which was better than the OP. It's implied that it was a good run further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well that is certainly a good thing... should bring back some sanity to the forum. In most cases when the mean is opposite the OP... the OP is usually wrong. I'm not seeing the mean as opposite the op, but rather as the mean trending in the direction of the op, but that's what one would expect given identical initialization parameters...that doesn't mean the init parameters are correct however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The eps is better but still took a pretty decent step toward a southern solution compared to 00zThe 12z EPS is south of the 0z EPS. The consistent moves south is very troubling. I had mentioned this when the threat first started, that suppression was a very real problem. Yesterday, I thought it may have been wrong, but now, there is evidence to support my initial thoughts. Let's see where the 0z runs take us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I stand corrected on the 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Does the Euro EPS have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z JMA is still a foot+ for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z nam looks to be in the GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1-3" is still a nice storm, especially if it's like 3.4", enough to cause a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z nam looks to be in the GFS camp Wouldn't this be the highly anticipated "NAM QPF Bomb"? Or is it too early for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z nam looks to be in the GFS camp Was gonna say that, didn't want to since I've been bashing the NAMs longer term aka 48 and beyond, but it may be necessary to mention to keep people from looking over the bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wouldn't this be the highly anticipated "NAM QPF Bomb"? Or is it too early for that?Too early still for those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM looks nothing like the Euro but it's hard to determine what sort of biases might be at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The nam is 10mb weaker than the GGEM at 06z Saturday but placement is almost identical... Just for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt. The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think it's safe to say even if the GFS comes in with 3 to 4 feet that 95% of us will stay up for the king at 1 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z GFS Parallel just came in and it's a total bomb. 2-3" LE for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt. The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm. The NAM isn't even in range for our area yet, but it will be by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think it's safe to say even if the GFS comes in with 3 to 4 feet that 95% of us will stay up for the king at 1 a.m. If GFS 18z and 00z, and 00z GGEM hold serve tonight, I dont care if the euro goes off the Florida coastline and OTS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanW Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Meh, if we're actually going to talk about the 84 hr NAM, the low is quite a bit weaker and unimpressive compared to the 12z GFS. Snowfall is less too. But hey, it's the long range NAM; I'd take it with a grain of salt. The 18z, and 0z GFS will be far more important in determining the track of this storm. Noticed that, too. the GFS has it at about 993 mb, the NAM, 997-998 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Noticed that, too. the GFS has it at about 993 mb, the NAM, 997-998 mb.GGEM IS 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think it's safe to say even if the GFS comes in with 3 to 4 feet that 95% of us will stay up for the king at 1 a.m. If the GFS shows that, I'm throwing it out too. That's not what the models have consistently shown. That'd be a huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z GFS Parallel just came in and it's a total bomb. 2-3" LE for everyone. I think you meant Euro Parallel, correct? Just want to make sure I'm not living a parallel world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z PARA GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think you meant Euro Parallel, correct? Just want to make sure I'm not living a parallel world. No, the Euro parallel doesn't run at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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