Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion

[David-LI]

Every model fails , but the Euro has cut precip down at KNYC 3 out of it`s last 4 runs .That should get ones attention 

Euro had me close to 40 inches for probably 5 straight runs or more last year. That should get ones attention also...

[SouthCoastMA]

Most solutions have the storm heading E at some point, just need to get it far enough North before that motion commences.

[PB GFI]

Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

The Euro has cut precip down at KNYC 3 out of it`s last 4 runs .That should get ones attention .

 

I would fell more comfortable not seeing that evolution over the last 48 hours . 

[SnoSki14]

Those totals in Virginia and NC are like a 1 in 500 year event, you just know this is going to end up further north. Obviously these events occur once in a great while but I'm always wary of forecasting events that go strongly against climo and that type of snow event down there is virtually unheard of

Yeah wow what a historic event that would be for them. A lot of mets noted suppression being the biggest issue, and it was my fear too. No need to jump to conclusions yet but there's additional information being introduced that's causing it  to swing further south. It's not out of the question that NC and Viriginia get hammered with 2-3' of feet while we smoke cirrus. 

[psv88]

Every model fails , but the Euro has cut precip down at KNYC 3 out of it`s last 4 runs .That should get ones attention 

 

Exactly...so relax and breathe

[mikemost]

Any word on if there will be additional balloon launches in the Pacific NW to better sample the SW? I know the NWS has done so in the face of similar threats in the past.

[Morris]

I am more interested in what the new parallel and EPS show over the next few days since the

curent Euro is being retired in March. If the parallel and EPS come south then that will be more

important. But they were both north of the OP ant 0z. The UKMET usually is too far SE at this

point in time as it likes to dig lows pretty far SE.

 

You did have the 12z para yesterday surpressing it.

[Eduardo]

Yeah wow what a historic event that would be for them. A lot of mets noted suppression being the biggest issue, and it was my fear too. No need to jump to conclusions yet but there's additional information being introduced that's causing it  to swing further south. It's not out of the question that NC and Viriginia get hammered with 2-3' of feet while we smoke cirrus. 

 

I may be wrong (I'm only an amateur as well), but I think that the solution depicted by the Euro is a result of its digging the shortwave so deep and so far SW, which isn't exactly the same sort of true suppression we saw on 2/5-6/10.  This causes the storm to occlude further south which, in turn, allows the confluence to choke off the northern extent of the precip shield.

 

I second SnowGoose's point and think we ought to consider this solution for sure, but view it with some skepticism. First, the Euro might not be properly accounting for the anomalously warm water off the eastern seaboard.  Second, climatology does not favor such an extreme event that far south.  And finally, doesn't the Euro have a tendency to hold energy too far SW?  Not sure anybody's pointed that out.....

 

In any event, still plenty of time ahead of us.  Gotta keep a level head and enjoy the ride!  :-)

[Blizz]

I am more interested in what the new parallel and EPS show over the next few days since the

curent Euro is being retired in March. If the parallel and EPS come south, then that will be more

important. But they were both north of the OP ant 0z. The UKMET usually is too far SE at this

point in time as it likes to dig lows pretty far SE.

 

Man I keep hearing these tales about this parallel ECMWF yet never see any sign it exists! 

[PB GFI]

I am more interested in what the new parallel and EPS show over the next few days since the

curent Euro is being retired in March. If the parallel and EPS come south then that will be more

important. But they were both north of the OP ant 0z. The UKMET usually is too far SE at this

point in time as it likes to dig lows pretty far SE.

 

Will really focus on the indi s in 30 mins  . Last nights PARA was great . It matched the other guidance .

 

The OP is alone , I would like to leave it that way. 

[Zelocita Weather]

One run of the EURO has the 12"+ ~ 50 miles to our SE, all the rest of guidance has us in 1-2'. Good to see a slight wobble south in all guidance from yesterday when there was precip/temp issues for many. Still think the bullseye (average spray of all runs for all models) is somewhere close to I-95 from DC - NYC.

[Stormlover74]

The Euro has cut precip down at KNYC 3 out of it`s last 4 runs .That should get ones attention .

 

I would fell more comfortable not seeing that evolution over the last 48 hours . 

It did the same thing inside 48 hours with juno. Kept slashing the back edge of the heaviest snows and moving them east, which was a sign it was caving to the other models. This time it seems strange because its basically on its own with that trend

[IsentropicLift]

Bad news, the confluence is stronger on the 12z EPS mean as well.

[acvyse]

I may be wrong (I'm only an amateur as well), but I think that the solution depicted by the Euro is a result of its digging the shortwave so deep and so far SW, which isn't exactly the same sort of true suppression we saw on 2/5-6/10.  This causes the storm to occlude further south which, in turn, allows the confluence to choke off the northern extent of the precip shield.

 

I second SnowGoose's point and think we ought to consider this solution for sure, but view it with some skepticism. First, the Euro might not be properly accounting for the anomalously warm water off the eastern seaboard.  Second, climatology does not favor such an extreme event that far south.  And finally, doesn't the Euro have a tendency to hold energy too far SW?  Not sure anybody's pointed that out.....

 

In any event, still plenty of time ahead of us.  Gotta keep a level head and enjoy the ride!  :-)

 

Just FYI and I apologize if this seems rude..its not mean to be I swear! Models "holding energy" is incorrect. The model will inherently account for any energy added to the system and propagate that with the forward equations. The equations themselves cannot hold energy in a specific location unless otherwise described in the physical parameterizations (ex. storing energy in sea ice models). The "holding of energy" that may have been noticed may be just the parameterizations the model uses...indeed, they are simplifications of complicated physical processes. Either way, the result in that grid cell will propagate with the rest of the simulation.

 

Also, if the EURO (in this case) is initialized with interpolated SSTs, it will pick up on the anomalous warming off the eastern seaboard.

[Ericjcrash]

Bad news, the confluence is stronger on the 12z EPS mean as well.

That's not good. Individual members will be an interesting look.

[White Gorilla]

From Kocin

"Winter weather expert Paul Jeffrey Kocin, co-author of Northeast Snowstorms, shares the following message.

"Nothing like a new model run (ecmwf) to dampen some enthusiasm. However, and a big however, you can't live and die with each forecast cycle! There are plenty more cycles to run.

So far, there has been really good agreement on the big picture. But those details! Any trends in speed and how far north/south will make or break this forecast. There will likely be an area that looks primo, at least right now. That's likely to be between DC and Philadelphia. Uncertainty increases north and south. North with the possible sharp boundary with little vs lots of snow. That's the case so far NYC and Boston. Uncertainty increases south with mixing issues...Virginia.

Looks like 1-2 feet in the max, 30 possible. Where? You tell me.

This is how these systems typically work. Some are horribly unpredictable (or parts are....) but some are relatively predictable, like this one appears to be, just like Snowmageddon in Feb 2010, one of those cases. We will see.

But it is likely that any trends in speed and north vs south will likely be key in the next few days. My thoughts"

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

[acvyse]

From Kocin

"Winter weather expert Paul Jeffrey Kocin, co-author of Northeast Snowstorms, shares the following message.

"Nothing like a new model run (ecmwf) to dampen some enthusiasm. However, and a big however, you can't live and die with each forecast cycle! There are plenty more cycles to run.

So far, there has been really good agreement on the big picture. But those details! Any trends in speed and how far north/south will make or break this forecast. There will likely be an area that looks primo, at least right now. That's likely to be between DC and Philadelphia. Uncertainty increases north and south. North with the possible sharp boundary with little vs lots of snow. That's the case so far NYC and Boston. Uncertainty increases south with mixing issues...Virginia.

Looks like 1-2 feet in the max, 30 possible. Where? You tell me.

This is how these systems typically work. Some are horribly unpredictable (or parts are....) but some are relatively predictable, like this one appears to be, just like Snowmageddon in Feb 2010, one of those cases. We will see.

But it is likely that any trends in speed and north vs south will likely be key in the next few days. My thoughts"

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

 

Of course. What else is he going to say? However, if the pattern doesn't change the next run or two, then we could be on to something.

[jm1220]

The Euro has a stronger shortwave traveling through Nova Scotia when the low is over the Carolina Coast, which strengthens the confluence more than the GFS and other models. Hopefully that can weaken or get out of the way quicker. That was a factor that killed 2/5/10 north of Monmouth County. At this point that's doable, but I certainly wouldn't want that shortwave to strengthen. The Euro is also digging the trough too much over the South.

[IsentropicLift]

The EPS mean is better than the OP. It would at least bring warning level snows to NW NJ. It isn't as good as 00z however.

[wthrmn654]

The EPS mean is better than the OP. It would at least bring warning level snows to NW NJ. It isn't as good as 00z however.

And rest of area?

[allgame830]

The Euro has a stronger shortwave traveling through Nova Scotia when the low is over the Carolina Coast, which strengthens the confluence more than the GFS and other models. Hopefully that can weaken or get out of the way quicker. That was a factor that killed 2/5/10 north of Monmouth County. At this point that's doable, but I certainly wouldn't want that shortwave to strengthen. The Euro is also digging the trough too much over the South.

 

So are you thinking that the EURO is just too far south with everything and most likely will correct back to the north? but by how much?

[ag3]

And rest of area?

 

6"-12"

[PB GFI]

EPS much better than the OP 

[Morris]

EPS much better than the OP 

 

But quite the step back

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The EPS mean is better than the OP. It would at least bring warning level snows to NW NJ. It isn't as good as 00z however.

Bad news, the confluence is stronger on the 12z EPS mean as well.

Which one is it? Good or bad lol

[allgame830]

EPS much better than the OP 

 

Well that is certainly a good thing... should bring back some sanity to the forum.  In most cases when the mean is opposite the OP... the OP is usually wrong.

[jm1220]

So are you thinking that the EURO is just too far south with everything and most likely will correct back to the north? but by how much?

If I had to give a likelihood, I'd say that there's more of a chance it ends up further north than the Euro has now than not, but we have to watch trends over the next couple of days. Too much confluence has killed chances north of Trenton before.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Well that is certainly a good thing... should bring back some sanity to the forum. In most cases when the mean is opposite the OP... the OP is usually wrong.

The eps is better but still took a pretty decent step toward a southern solution compared to 00z

[PB GFI]

But quite the step back

 

1 inch line runs from Trenton to SI  and just S  of LI 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I think everyone needs to take a breath.. Euro spooked too many people.. The ensembles are FAR more robust than the OP which usually mean the OPS wrong, and I can't think of anytime where the ensembles haven't followed the trend of the OP, we gotta stop paying attention to the latest model as if it's "what's going to happen as of this moment"... It's another piece of the puzzle