wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the 16th, it was modeled to off of Florida coast, only on the 17 did it like the storm up here idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The JMA was a partial cave to the Euro idea as well. It's not as bad but the low kicks due East from VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm noticing that the ridge out West is collapsing on most of the guidance as the system cuts off, thus making it a more progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's completely different than the Stormvista maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Boy we're right on the edge of the significant snow on the 12z Euro. Would only take a slight shift back north to be in good shape, but obviously we have to hope that the south trend doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The JMA was a partial cave to the Euro idea as well. It's not as bad but the low kicks due East from VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's completely different than the Stormvista maps. Please elaborate on how it is different... since most of us do not have access to the Stormvista site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No cliff jumping yet guys/gals. It's one model run and just the OP. Still in good shape. Seems like everything this year has gone NW of track. European hasn't had such a hot year. Seems to struggle with El Niño Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No cliff jumping yet guys/gals. It's one model run and just the OP. Still in good shape. Seems like everything this year has gone NW of track. European hasn't had such a hot year. Seems to struggle with El Niño Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Suppression is always a possibility in southern stream driven El Nino storms, especially in a generally progressive pattern with resistance from the north via confluence. I wasn't a fan either of the NW winds aloft over New England on the Euro as the low sits on the Carolina coast. That would definitely cause a sharp northern edge, where dry air causes the snow shield to hit a wall and dry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know what the QPF output is indicating but the 500mb low tracks from VA beach due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I suspected this would happen as the models get better sampling on the storm. And be warned that, though the Euro, NAVGEM, and Ukie are in a seemingly separate camp from the GFS and RGEM/GGEM for now, the GFS has been building up more and more confluence to the north in the past 3 runs. You can easily see a more OTS solution beginning to form in those runs, and this could be start of the GFS's trend towards a more Euro-like solution. That's the reason why we got so much snow on the 12z GFS; the main core of snowfall was roughly to the west and north of us in the past 5-6 runs, and now, with the storm being shifted to the south and east, we're now part of the main snowfall core. However, this isn't good news, as if the trend continues, the totals will slowly fall to a much lesser amount. It might return in later runs and give us the foot of snow we're all hoping for, but things aren't looking very good as of now. Just my interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Please elaborate on how it is different... since most of us do not have access to the Stormvista site. I already posted that. 4"+ contour doesn't begin until you're near ACY in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 12z GEFS mean also shifted South a bit from 06z run but it wasn't a major shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 1.89 QPF (mostly snow) to ACY and points south. This would cripple the jersey shore, coupled with the hightides, probably the worst flooding since Sandy given the projected winds. Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know what the QPF output is indicating but the 500mb low tracks from VA beach due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gotta get rid or minimize that SW diving into SE Canada. That seems like a significant wild card that bears watching and really crippled the ability for Heavy Snow to come North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It crawls / occludes and heads E like the GEM/UKIE/GFS I do not want to be without the Euro . I don`t care what the others show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The JMA was a partial cave to the Euro idea as well. It's not as bad but the low kicks due East from VA beach. It has 1.75 of qpf at NYC how is that a cave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has 1.75 of qpf at NYC how is that a cave? It`s not - Check out the precip panels GEM/GFS/JMA all the same . The UKIE will do the same thing - 96/120 hours looks like it heads NE then E . It too ends ups in the same spot as the GFS 24 hours later after coming off OBX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's completely different than the Stormvista maps. Those totals in Virginia and NC are like a 1 in 500 year event, you just know this is going to end up further north. Obviously these events occur once in a great while but I'm always wary of forecasting events that go strongly against climo and that type of snow event down there is virtually unheard of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did the euro use data with the storm onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I suspected this would happen as the models would get better sampling on the storm. And be warned, that though the Euro, NAVGEM, and Ukie are in a separate camp from the GFS and RGEM/GGEM, the GFS has been building up more and more confluence to the north in the past 3 runs. You can easily see a more OTS solution beginning to form in those runs, and this could be start of the GFS's trend towards a more Euro-like solution. That's the reason why we got so much snow on the 12z GFS; the main core of snowfall was roughly to the west and north of us in the past 5-6 runs, and now, with the storm being shifted to the south and east, we're now part of the main snowfall core. However, this isn't good news, as if the trend continues, the totals will slowly fall to a much lesser amount. It might return in later runs, and give us the foot of snow we're all hoping for, but things aren't looking very good as of now. JMHO. This post is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did the euro use data with the storm onshore? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It crawls / occludes and heads E like the GEM/UKIE/GFS I do not want to be without the Euro . I don`t care what the others show . How did that work out for Juno? Juaquin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It crawls / occludes and heads E like the GEM/UKIE/GFS I do not want to be without the Euro . I don`t care what the others show . Not sure what point you're trying to make here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How did that work out for Juno? Juaquin? Every model fails , but the Euro has cut precip down at KNYC 3 out of it`s last 4 runs .That should get ones attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In the January 1996 storm the ECMWF suppress the storm for a few runs than brought it back to NYC.Not to question you Mike, but wasn't that real old technology in the Euro at the time? The upgrades after 20 years should have made it vastly better today right? Or is it still liable to do the same thing it did with the blizzard back in 96? And it has been a steady southern trend on the Euro. This wasn't just a one run burp. It has moved progressively south every run since Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Did the euro use data with the storm onshore? No, not until 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not sure what point you're trying to make here. I think he is politely saying we're toast, PHL-NYC. This is a Mid-Atl storm. Let them enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.