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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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No cliff jumping yet guys/gals. It's one model run and just the OP. Still in good shape. Seems like everything this year has gone NW of track. European hasn't had such a hot year. Seems to struggle with El Niño

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Suppression is always a possibility in southern stream driven El Nino storms, especially in a generally progressive pattern with resistance from the north via confluence. I wasn't a fan either of the NW winds aloft over New England on the Euro as the low sits on the Carolina coast. That would definitely cause a sharp northern edge, where dry air causes the snow shield to hit a wall and dry up. 

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I suspected this would happen as the models get better sampling on the storm.

 

And be warned that, though the Euro, NAVGEM, and Ukie are in a seemingly separate camp from the GFS and RGEM/GGEM for now, the GFS has been building up more and more confluence to the north in the past 3 runs. You can easily see a more OTS solution beginning to form in those runs, and this could be start of the GFS's trend towards a more Euro-like solution.

 

That's the reason why we got so much snow on the 12z GFS; the main core of snowfall was roughly to the west and north of us in the past 5-6 runs, and now, with the storm being shifted to the south and east, we're now part of the main snowfall core. However, this isn't good news, as if the trend continues, the totals will slowly fall to a much lesser amount.

 

It might return in later runs and give us the foot of snow we're all hoping for, but things aren't looking very good as of now.

 

Just my interpretation.

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It has 1.75 of qpf at NYC how is that a cave?

 

 

It`s not - Check out the precip panels 

 

GEM/GFS/JMA all the same . The UKIE will do the same thing - 96/120 hours looks like it heads NE then E . It too ends ups in the same spot  as the GFS 24 hours later after coming off OBX . 

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That's completely different than the Stormvista maps.

Those totals in Virginia and NC are like a 1 in 500 year event, you just know this is going to end up further north. Obviously these events occur once in a great while but I'm always wary of forecasting events that go strongly against climo and that type of snow event down there is virtually unheard of

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I suspected this would happen as the models would get better sampling on the storm.

 

And be warned, that though the Euro, NAVGEM, and Ukie are in a separate camp from the GFS and RGEM/GGEM, the GFS has been building up more and more confluence to the north in the past 3 runs. You can easily see a more OTS solution beginning to form in those runs, and this could be start of the GFS's trend towards a more Euro-like solution.

 

That's the reason why we got so much snow on the 12z GFS; the main core of snowfall was roughly to the west and north of us in the past 5-6 runs, and now, with the storm being shifted to the south and east, we're now part of the main snowfall core. However, this isn't good news, as if the trend continues, the totals will slowly fall to a much lesser amount.

 

It might return in later runs, and give us the foot of snow we're all hoping for, but things aren't looking very good as of now.

 

JMHO.

This post is incorrect.

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In the January 1996 storm the ECMWF suppress the storm for a few runs than brought it back to NYC.

Not to question you Mike, but wasn't that real old technology in the Euro at the time? The upgrades after 20 years should have made it vastly better today right? Or is it still liable to do the same thing it did with the blizzard back in 96? And it has been a steady southern trend on the Euro. This wasn't just a one run burp. It has moved progressively south every run since Sunday night
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