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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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It has to do with the confluence over NE. This run is stronger than the 00z, thus the suppression. If that doesn't relax in subsequent runs, then places north of NYC will smoke cirrus

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it has to do with the s/w digging into the gulf of mexico

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Hoping it is wrong like it was wrong last year. If it's wrong again it will be dethroned.

Last year it was wrong just on the phrase and that was a different type of storm. This is a southern stream s/w with significant STJ interaction. This is the Euro bread and butter. Even if it's early on the phase, it's seeing the storm skipping out to sea because of the NAO changing positive pretty quickly.

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The UKMET did the same thing. Dug well South and then up and out. Nobody here would see anything.

If that combo is shown again at 00z, I would start taking it seriously. Those two models in unison are very very tough to beat.

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0.75" QPF line barely south of the south shore barrier islands on the Euro. This would probably be a 4-6" event for Long Island, maybe, considering how sharp the north ends of these usually are. QPF was overmodeled on 2/5/10 as well for the NYC area. 

 

Again, that's if you take the Euro verbatim as shown here. 

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0.75" QPF line barely south of the south shore barrier islands on the Euro. This would probably be a 4-6" event for Long Island, maybe, considering how sharp the north ends of these usually are. QPF was overmodeled on 2/5/10 as well for the NYC area.

Again, that's if you take the Euro verbatim as shown here.

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