Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's pretty much Feb 5-6, but even further south. Really hope it trends back to what the rest of the guidance says Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hoping it is wrong like it was wrong last year. If it's wrong again it will be dethroned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Obviously we all need to start breathing again as I hear not breathing isnt the best of ideas. By tonight the storm will be fully sampled, if multiple modeals continue with this solution by 1 am tonight then we can start getting nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has to do with the confluence over NE. This run is stronger than the 00z, thus the suppression. If that doesn't relax in subsequent runs, then places north of NYC will smoke cirrus Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2-4" for the immediate coast, and I am talking East of the GSP in NJ and 1-2" back into the NW burbs. Still a solid hit for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro is a possibility that can't be discounted. If the trough digs too much and closes off too soon, it will be nudged ENE out to sea by what's behind it and will stay suppressed. In the "what could go wrong" book, this is definitely one possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run was so far South that DC almost got left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It has to do with the confluence over NE. This run is stronger than the 00z, thus the suppression. If that doesn't relax in subsequent runs, then places north of NYC will smoke cirrus Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk it has to do with the s/w digging into the gulf of mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro may still be dig happy. We'll see on the 00z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hoping it is wrong like it was wrong last year. If it's wrong again it will be dethroned.Last year it was wrong just on the phrase and that was a different type of storm. This is a southern stream s/w with significant STJ interaction. This is the Euro bread and butter. Even if it's early on the phase, it's seeing the storm skipping out to sea because of the NAO changing positive pretty quickly. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The UKMET did the same thing. Dug well South and then up and out. Nobody here would see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Model fun again. Why do I even bother more than 24 hrs before a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Still a solid hit for Long Island. It's a terrible run for 75% of the area and mediocre for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The UKMET did the same thing. Dug well South and then up and out. Nobody here would see anything.If that combo is shown again at 00z, I would start taking it seriously. Those two models in unison are very very tough to beat. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ugh, what a disastrous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its still a SECS for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Its still a SECS for many Anybody have a map to show this?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0.75" QPF line barely south of the south shore barrier islands on the Euro. This would probably be a 4-6" event for Long Island, maybe, considering how sharp the north ends of these usually are. QPF was overmodeled on 2/5/10 as well for the NYC area. Again, that's if you take the Euro verbatim as shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gfs ensembles look great. See what euro ensembles show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I get more snow than manhattan on the euro 6+. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0.75" QPF line barely south of the south shore barrier islands on the Euro. This would probably be a 4-6" event for Long Island, maybe, considering how sharp the north ends of these usually are. QPF was overmodeled on 2/5/10 as well for the NYC area. Again, that's if you take the Euro verbatim as shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JM: which way you leaning? GFS or Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAVGEM is very similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah for sure. Will be super interested in what the Ensembles show and Para. Does the para run today? GFS/GGEM vs. Euro/UKMET Game on. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS/GGEM gives me close to 2' and the EC/Ukmet gives me overcast skies lol.. I know where my money is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Despite the Euro showing around an inch liquid up to about Monmouth, SV maps don't show 4"+ until you're near ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 In the January 1996 storm the ECMWF suppress the storm for a few runs than brought it back to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So basically we went from great model consensus to a battle... I like having the GGEM on our side with it's great track record of late. When do the EURO ensembles and PARA come out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 wasn't the Euro also way OTS with the system we got this past Sunday at this time frame? is this comparable to that at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Enough with the one liners. Whine or gloat in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.