Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 don't get wrapped up in qpf. the mid levels are great This needs to be pinned somewhere. Everyone needs to tell themselves this when looking at the stupid qpf panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Soundings are amazing.... KFRG (SW Suffolk) gets to 33.4 at height of storm that drops back in upper 20's... strong HP north pressing down keeping all layers in snow making -3C to -6C ...sustained 30-35 knot winds going NE half way through storm... 1.91" precip... all snow... KISP (Central Suffolk) gets to 34.2 before dropping back into upper 20's... snow making layers -3C to -6C during event. 30-35 knot sustained winds. ...all snow Even KMTP (Eastern LI) stays all snow as the cold high is just pumping cold air into the moist air..they do get to 36/37... but stays all snow (???), and plenty of precip, 2.34"... SUSTAINED 48 KNOT WINDS... Temps may be over played as the snow intensity, and very cold aloft layers should cool the column all the way down, although east wind for a while will try and overcome that. If this were to verify, probably 45 to 50 mph gusts western LI, 65 mph gusts eastern LI, insane... there would be 15'+ drifts. ...Just one run, it will change. Double barrell lows seem a bit odd, and for LIers, if that storm hangs too close off Del Marva and does not move ENE you still can get some rain in... All likelihood the east end even with this set up might get a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Could someone tell me if this is correct: An earlier/ further south cutoff would mean the best dynamics are felt further south, and the storm loses its poleward motion earlier. A later/further north cutoff brings better dynamics north, but introduces a greater threat of mixing/rain to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I see most people talking about 10:1 like we should do better, won't the high winds be a damper on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS Ensemble Mean Max Res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I see most people talking about 10:1 like we should do better, won't the high winds be a damper on that? In general, snow events in this area frequently produce ratios around 12 to 13:1 when they do not occur with a very marginal setup. This one may end up 10 to 1 due to strong winds but it may begin as 12 or 13 I think initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS Ensemble Mean Max Res So the Op is about double the ensemble mean for the City, meanwhile there must be some insane members for VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That GFS would make everyone... Happy.... Keep in mind those maps are 10:1, Bernie Rayno touched on why ratios should be higher near 15:1... Even for wind driven coastal section with the dynamics in place Don't underestimate what high winds do to perfectly fine dendrites. I had 15" of snow with 1.64" water equivalent in the blizzard last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't underestimate what high winds do to perfectly fine dendrites. I had 15" of snow with 1.64" water equivalent in the blizzard last January. It's a known fact that strong winds limit ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Don't underestimate what high winds do to perfectly fine dendrites. I had 15" of snow with 1.64" water equivalent in the blizzard last January. Only 15"? I was in Huntington right after that storm and there was way more then 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's a known fact that strong winds limit ratios.That's what he said... Although once the CCB starts cranking ratios should increase somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Soundings are amazing.... KFRG (SW Suffolk) gets to 33.4 at height of storm that drops back in upper 20's... strong HP north pressing down keeping all layers in snow making -3C to -6C ...sustained 30-35 knot winds going NE half way through storm... 1.91" precip... all snow... KISP (Central Suffolk) gets to 34.2 before dropping back into upper 20's... snow making layers -3C to -6C during event. 30-35 knot sustained winds. ...all snow Even KMTP (Eastern LI) stays all snow as the cold high is just pumping cold air into the moist air..they do get to 36/37... but stays all snow (???), and plenty of precip, 2.34"... SUSTAINED 48 KNOT WINDS... Temps may be over played as the snow intensity, and very cold aloft layers should cool the column all the way down, although east wind for a while will try and overcome that. If this were to verify, probably 45 to 50 mph gusts western LI, 65 mph gusts eastern LI, insane... there would be 15'+ drifts. ...Just one run, it will change. Double barrell lows seem a bit odd, and for LIers, if that storm hangs too close off Del Marva and does not move ENE you still can get some rain in... All likelihood the east end even with this set up might get a mix. Thanks for this! Excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Onshore . http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z JMA is also a major hit widespread 1.5-2"+ city and jersey get pounded with almost 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z JMA is also a major hit widespread 1.5-2"+ city and jersey get pounded with almost 2 feet What about UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Only 15"? I was in Huntington right after that storm and there was way more then 15" Yup, that was it. No one wanted to believe me at the time. Believe me, there's a slant sticker somewhere in my subconscious but I really didn't get more than 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I see most people talking about 10:1 like we should do better, won't the high winds be a damper on that? A lot will also depend on where the snow growth is. A ratio between 11:1 and 13:1 might be reasonable (and one should probably start at the lower figure until one gets closer to the system). During the January 1996 blizzard, the ratio for NYC was 9.4:1, but there was a period of sleet involved. At the same time, Boston saw a ratio of 18:1 during the January 2005 blizzard. So ratios that exceed 15:1 are not impossible during verified blizzards. Considering that this storm will be tapping a lot of Gulf moisture and the climatology of Miller A storms, the 11:1 to 13:1 idea seems far more likely than 15:1. Of course, it's still too soon to be very sure until we have a much better idea about what's happening in the snow growth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Onshore . http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Which will be the first model to run with this new onshore data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run should be more suppressed unfortunately. Confluence is even stronger and the vort is way too amped. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run should be more suppressed unfortunately. Confluence is even stronger and the vort is way too amped. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Yup, digging even further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0.0 on the Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro is a total disaster for the Western half of the sub-forum. Significant snow barely makes it into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0.0 on the Euro lol are you serious?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We do clip the CCB from EWR-east 3-6 for costal sections less north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 are you serious?!? No. But it's awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well, that's a total whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not gonna sugar coat this run. It's horrible. What's even worse is that it looks exactly like the UKMET. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 are you serious?!?AO pushes it down, positive NAO allows it to escape. I don't think we can completely discount this solution. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2-4" for the immediate coast, and I am talking East of the GSP in NJ and 1-2" back into the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The site crashed for good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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