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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Soundings are amazing....

 

KFRG (SW Suffolk) gets to 33.4 at height of storm that drops back in upper 20's... strong HP north pressing down keeping all layers in snow making -3C to -6C ...sustained 30-35 knot winds going NE half way through storm... 1.91" precip... all snow...

 

KISP (Central Suffolk) gets to 34.2 before dropping back into upper 20's... snow making layers -3C to -6C during event. 30-35 knot sustained winds. ...all snow

 

Even KMTP (Eastern LI) stays all snow as the cold high is just pumping cold air into the moist air..they do get to 36/37... but stays all snow (???), and plenty of precip, 2.34"... SUSTAINED 48 KNOT WINDS... 

 

Temps may be over played as the snow intensity, and very cold aloft layers should cool the column all the way down, although east wind for a while will try and overcome that. If this were to verify, probably 45 to 50 mph gusts western LI, 65 mph gusts eastern LI, insane... there would be 15'+ drifts.

 

...Just one run, it will change. Double barrell lows seem a bit odd, and for LIers, if that storm hangs too close off Del Marva and does not move ENE you still can get some rain in... All likelihood the east end even with this set up might get a mix.

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Could someone tell me if this is correct:

An earlier/ further south cutoff would mean the best dynamics are felt further south, and the storm loses its poleward motion earlier. A later/further north cutoff brings better dynamics north, but introduces a greater threat of mixing/rain to the coastal plain. 

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I see most people talking about 10:1 like we should do better, won't the high winds be a damper on that?

In general, snow events in this area frequently produce ratios around 12 to 13:1 when they do not occur with a very marginal setup. This one may end up 10 to 1 due to strong winds but it may begin as 12 or 13 I think initially

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That GFS would make everyone... Happy.... Keep in mind those maps are 10:1, Bernie Rayno touched on why ratios should be higher near 15:1... Even for wind driven coastal section with the dynamics in place

Don't underestimate what high winds do to perfectly fine dendrites. I had 15" of snow with 1.64" water equivalent in the blizzard last January.

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Soundings are amazing....

KFRG (SW Suffolk) gets to 33.4 at height of storm that drops back in upper 20's... strong HP north pressing down keeping all layers in snow making -3C to -6C ...sustained 30-35 knot winds going NE half way through storm... 1.91" precip... all snow...

KISP (Central Suffolk) gets to 34.2 before dropping back into upper 20's... snow making layers -3C to -6C during event. 30-35 knot sustained winds. ...all snow

Even KMTP (Eastern LI) stays all snow as the cold high is just pumping cold air into the moist air..they do get to 36/37... but stays all snow (???), and plenty of precip, 2.34"... SUSTAINED 48 KNOT WINDS...

Temps may be over played as the snow intensity, and very cold aloft layers should cool the column all the way down, although east wind for a while will try and overcome that. If this were to verify, probably 45 to 50 mph gusts western LI, 65 mph gusts eastern LI, insane... there would be 15'+ drifts.

...Just one run, it will change. Double barrell lows seem a bit odd, and for LIers, if that storm hangs too close off Del Marva and does not move ENE you still can get some rain in... All likelihood the east end even with this set up might get a mix.

Thanks for this! Excellent!

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I see most people talking about 10:1 like we should do better, won't the high winds be a damper on that?

A lot will also depend on where the snow growth is. A ratio between 11:1 and 13:1 might be reasonable (and one should probably start at the lower figure until one gets closer to the system).

 

During the January 1996 blizzard, the ratio for NYC was 9.4:1, but there was a period of sleet involved. At the same time, Boston saw a ratio of 18:1 during the January 2005 blizzard. So ratios that exceed 15:1 are not impossible during verified blizzards. Considering that this storm will be tapping a lot of Gulf moisture and the climatology of Miller A storms, the 11:1 to 13:1 idea seems far more likely than 15:1.

 

Of course, it's still too soon to be very sure until we have a much better idea about what's happening in the snow growth region.

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