snywx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 You have to be careful what you wish for the 12Z Canadian if it verifies will cause precip type issues in the southern half of the metro and points south and east Someone is gonna be left out. Its either the northern sections smoke cirrus or the southern areas taint. Very tough for all areas to cash in on the same system. The Euro was very close to fringing the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just for the record, I didn't bash you. If you took it that way, I apologize, it wasn't my intention. I seriously dont understand you half the time tho. You say "a 6 inch storm in the month of January will be hard to come by" thus not truly making a call and being correct whether or not it happens. Forky on the other hand made a call that he supports and is very easily understandable. Again, I just have a tough time deciphering your posts, nothing personal. I respect what you do here and the time you put in. Thank you. my best DT NO WARNING CRITERIA FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE METRO!!!!! fack me http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 my best DT NO WARNING CRITERIA FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE METRO!!!!! fack me Couple days of work this week and before you know it, its almost end of the week. Thats how i approach these events at this stage on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Close to 1.75 QPF on the GGEM ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And depending on how cold it gets we could see 2ft of snow. The more colder it is the more snow fall amount per every 1" of rain rite? Sorry im learning based on what others are typing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Keep in mind the current ocean temps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 my best DT NO WARNING CRITERIA FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE METRO!!!!! fack me http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html Thank you tommy e. I respect your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 my best DT NO WARNING CRITERIA FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE METRO!!!!! fack me http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html can you please explain ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I usually wouldn't keep this thread around until tomorrow but we need a win badly here. This is not a banter thread. Keep all banter in the banter thread. This thread is for pattern discussion leading up to this weekend and for model runs. Any bickering will lead to warnings or worse. Thanks in advance for behaving. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This was GGEM, keep in mind this is 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Close to 1.75 QPF on the GGEM ensemble mean Gfs ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Isentrophic Life - Good observation about the taint issue. One of the analogs for this is the 2/11-12/1983 event. I experienced that storm in NW Suffolk Cty on LI. While the immediate NYC area received several hours of heavy thundersnow where I was the snow was mixed with snow grains for a good portion of the night. I did total 17.5". What was really significant about that event where I was was the strength of the wind. This is a feature of the event that has not been well documented (at least not that I have seen). I had many hours of winds gusting to 55 - 75 MPH (These were measured wind velocities). In my recollection this was one of if not the most strongest storm in terms of wind that I ever experienced ( and that includes a few hurricanes). I had a roof mounted downeaster weather station at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Gfs ensembles? Use this link http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Use this linkhttp://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html To my eye, pretty impressive agreement on something substantial. Virtually every run has something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just me or does the euro look better than the GFS at 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 129 12z euro big time mid Atlantic snowstorm going on...light snow to NYC. Surface low over SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 132 closed low tons of over running snow for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just me or does the euro look better than the GFS at 500? More consolidated and it closes off at 500mb in a good spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 136 06z Saturday heavy snow Baltimore to Phl crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Huge hit for the area on 12z euro over a foot for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 If the euro is correct NYC is above normal snow by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 989 off Delmarva and still strengthening? Lol I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snows for well over 24 hrs on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hr 144 has .5-.75 in a 6 hr period. CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro is still too close of a call for those of us north and west of metro, good trends thus far, LOTS of time to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro is 12-18" verbatim not including ratios, for most jersey/NYC,Long Island, 6-8 north and west, less the further from coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 JMA is a beast. Sub 986 mb!! Nearly identical track/location as Euro. Impressive signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro is still too close of a call for those of us north and west of metro, good trends thus far, LOTS of time to goThe Euro op and EPS keeps coming in south of the GFS and Canadian ops and their ensembles' tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Euro looks beautiful. 12+ for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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