RU848789 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hadn't seen the WPC discussion from Paul Kocin posted yet. I know most here know who he is, but for those who don't he's the former "winter weather expert" at TWC, and the guy how literally wrote (along with Uccellini) the 2-volume book entitled Northeast Snowstorms and developed the NESIS system for rating the impact of NE snowstorms. Again, doesn't mean a major or historic snowstorm is a certainty, but it's definitely looking more likely with each model cycle - if the models continue to show this kind of output after the major players are all onshore, then it's time to get serious about this one. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES. COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN. IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE. IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE... THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE. KOCIN http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow Kocin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The last paragraph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 is anyone concerned about the GFS idea of the storm never really making it to the BM? Seems like after the stall, the storm is shunted eastward. Maybe it won't matter in the long run, but i thought i'd ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow. The King of Winter Weather Forecasting has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I like the part where he compares to the past big boys....! But it's all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kocin is a great forecaster but also a great writer for a scientist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wow. The King of Winter Weather Forecasting has spoken. He sure has. TWC misses him greatly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 is anyone concerned about the GFS idea of the storm never really making it to the BM? Seems like after the stall, the storm is shunted eastward. Maybe it won't matter in the long run, but i thought i'd ask. 40/70 is for new england... our BM is east of atlantic city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Huge hit. Back to the idea of 12z yesterday. Euro is on its own as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hadn't seen the WPC discussion from Paul Kocin posted yet. I know most here know who he is, but for those who don't he's the former "winter weather expert" at TWC, and the guy how literally wrote (along with Uccellini) the 2-volume book entitled Northeast Snowstorms and developed the NESIS system for rating the impact of NE snowstorms. Again, doesn't mean a major or historic snowstorm is a certainty, but it's definitely looking more likely with each model cycle - if the models continue to show this kind of output after the major players are all onshore, then it's time to get serious about this one. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016 HIGHLIGHTS... LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES. COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN. IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE. IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY 2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK. IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE... THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE. KOCIN http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Better hope February 5-6 2010 doesn't verify http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/06-Feb-10.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Kocin is a great forecaster but also a great writer for a scientist. Had the pleasure of meeting him, great guy. Sorry mods if this is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is looking like a very high confidence widespread classic monster. Would be the 1st really in 13 years ( Feb 2003). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 40/70 is for new england... our BM is east of atlantic city Southern New England especially, ski country up north likes it tucked right over Cape Cod or BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Solid MECS for most of our area and HECS for parts of central/western Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 17 inches in the city per GGEM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This could be a top 5er! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not getting excited until Thursday 0z runs. Euro and Ukie not on board with the big snow amounts for our area. The energy is still in the pacific and any small changes at 500 will shift those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Big run coming up for king Euro. I'm still nervous what it might show even though NWS said it was initializing errors. If it corrects itself north then I'll be all in. Just trying to temper my excitement for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wasn't the Euro on its own for last year's blizzard too? This run will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not getting excited until Thursday 0z runs. Euro and Ukie not on board with the big snow amounts for our area. The energy is still in the pacific and any small changes at 500 will shift those totals. agree here, a slightly different orientation of that CCB would result in significant differences in snowfall rates, either for the better or worse obviously, depending on one's location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Huge hit. Back to the idea of 12z yesterday. Euro is on its own as of now. My goodness. Is that a 10:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Better hope February 5-6 2010 doesn't verify http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/06-Feb-10.html That was an odd comparison. Different setup. Not sure why he didn't mention '83 instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Jeez, if my memory recalled correctly, we had a big blizzard after Sandy, 2013, big blizzard in 2014, monster blizzard 2015 (especially long island), and now 2016? I'm seeing a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'm very confident we'll get a minimum of 6-10". The stuff beyond will take time to figure. Most storms back off in intensity and impact the closer we get but those rare monsters like PD II or a Jan 96 get more intense/impressive as we approach their arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is assuming 10:1 ratios which I think is underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Great to hear cocin throwing the big boys in the mix. My confidence level for more then 6" is now at 95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Big run coming up for king Euro. I'm still nervous what it might show even though NWS said it was initializing errors. If it corrects itself north then I'll be all in. Just trying to temper my excitement for now.The Euro and Ukie have been in their own camp on this storm and are a lot different than the CMC and GFS. Should be interesting to see what the Euro does and moreso the EPS later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS ensembles look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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