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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Hadn't seen the WPC discussion from Paul Kocin posted yet.  I know most here know who he is, but for those who don't he's the former "winter weather expert" at TWC, and the guy how literally wrote (along with Uccellini) the 2-volume book entitled Northeast Snowstorms and developed the NESIS system for rating the impact of NE snowstorms.  Again, doesn't mean a major or historic snowstorm is a certainty, but it's definitely looking more likely with each model cycle - if the models continue to show this kind of output after the major players are all onshore, then it's time to get serious about this one.    

 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016
 
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016
 
HIGHLIGHTS...
 
LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.
 
IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.
 
IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
 
TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.
 
IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.
 
CONFIDENCE...
 
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.
 
KOCIN
 
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is anyone concerned about the GFS idea of the storm never really making it to the BM? Seems like after the stall, the storm is shunted eastward. Maybe it won't matter in the long run, but i thought i'd ask. 

40/70 is for new england... our BM is east of atlantic city

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Hadn't seen the WPC discussion from Paul Kocin posted yet.  I know most here know who he is, but for those who don't he's the former "winter weather expert" at TWC, and the guy how literally wrote (along with Uccellini) the 2-volume book entitled Northeast Snowstorms and developed the NESIS system for rating the impact of NE snowstorms.  Again, doesn't mean a major or historic snowstorm is a certainty, but it's definitely looking more likely with each model cycle - if the models continue to show this kind of output after the major players are all onshore, then it's time to get serious about this one.    

 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016
 
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016
 
HIGHLIGHTS...
 
LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.
 
IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.
 
IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
 
TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.
 
IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.
 
CONFIDENCE...
 
THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.
 
KOCIN
 

 

Better hope February 5-6 2010 doesn't verify

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/06-Feb-10.html

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Not getting excited until Thursday 0z runs. Euro and Ukie not on board with the big snow amounts for our area. The energy is still in the pacific and any small changes at 500 will shift those totals.

agree here, a slightly different orientation of that CCB would result in significant differences in snowfall rates, either for the better or worse obviously, depending on one's location

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Big run coming up for king Euro. I'm still nervous what it might show even though NWS said it was initializing errors. If it corrects itself north then I'll be all in. Just trying to temper my excitement for now.

The Euro and Ukie have been in their own camp on this storm and are a lot different than the CMC and GFS. Should be interesting to see what the Euro does and moreso the EPS later on
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