NortheastPAWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS max res Sorry for jumping in, but where on SV do you get that map? I can only find the view of all North America for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The heaviest banding in this frame is right over NE NJ, NYC, Westchester and up into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At hour 102 roughly,I can foresee thunder snows possibly on the east end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If Euro, Euro Para and rest of 12z guidance matches this, I will start to feel more confident. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The key still remains exactly where the mid-level centers close off because if it happens any sooner, the system will stall further Southwest and any later further East or Northeast. But overall I think the chances of 6"+ along 95 are probably 85% at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 slowly coming on board with the storm I know you said by Wednesday you wil bite My tomorrow the models will really have a good handle on this. The GFS initially had me worried being further south. Then it lifts north and closes off later. Classic Shelacking for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That GFS would make everyone... Happy.... Keep in mind those maps are 10:1, Bernie Rayno touched on why ratios should be higher near 15:1... Even for wind driven coastal section with the dynamics in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Max res is indicating snowfall of at least 0.50" per hour for 21 straight hours. Pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ggem is a huge hit. Similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That GFS would make everyone... Happy.... Keep in mind those maps are 10:1, Bernie Rayno touched on why ratios should be higher near 15:1... Even for wind driven coastal section with the dynamics in place Keep in mind that if those stronger winds verify it would hurt ratios some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ggem is a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GGEM gets the initial overrunning a bit further NE than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If the GGEM verifies we'll be snowing by 00z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ggem is a crush job. Hey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ggem is a hammer job. 983mb east of cape may at 96 slowly drifting ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The stronger surface winds on the GFS was probably due to the stronger confluence to the North helping to compress the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That GFS run was straight model porn... ignore QPF blobs, if that evolution comes to fruition we'll all be buried. Good lord, what a CCB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That GFS run was straight model porn... ignore QPF blobs, if that evolution comes to fruition we'll all be buried. Good lord, what a CCB! 700 mb low just offshore acy... pinch me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The key still remains exactly where the mid-level centers close off because if it happens any sooner, the system will stall further Southwest and any later further East or Northeast. But overall I think the chances of 6"+ along 95 are probably 85% at this range. You may be right but because of the uncertainly you yourself state I believe it is still too early to make categorical snowfall accumulation forecasts. Potential exists, we agree!-time will tell and good luck to you all. You deserve a big one after what you guys have been through so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I know I take a lot of crap sometimes cause I'm Pro-GGEM/RGEM but can I just point out that the GGEM, has NOT changed track by even 20 miles on any single run since 00z Friday... Pretty impressive if it nails the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Cmc looks funky at 102hrs. Has 3 LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 whos got GGEM snow map? I can't access it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GGEM has a warm BL which is completely false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If the GGEM verifies we'll be snowing by 00z Saturday.sorry for the brain fart but when exactly is 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What you can take from the GGEM is that it pretty much agrees with the GFS. After that I wouldn't pay much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 700 mb low just offshore acy... pinch me It's one model run, but that thing takes a slight jog N then NW (!) in the perfect location. Epic U-wind anomalies... it basically snows itself out from PHL to BOS. Reminding me very much of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's one model run, but that thing takes a slight jog N then NW (!) in the perfect location. Epic U-wind anomalies... it basically snows itself out from PHL to BOS. Reminding me very much of 1996. Was just coming here to post about the mid-level similarities to 96 on these runs. Textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 sorry for the brain fart but when exactly is 00z? 7pm Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 7pm Fridaythank you. Thought so. Anyone see the CMC? why 3 lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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