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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Stolen from the MidAtlantic thread - ya think there might be a good WAA thump with this one?

USA_PWATI_clm_084.gif

The setup looks good for some sort of big initial overrunning here. It's tough to know if that will happen, even as the event is beginning because models often will miss it. When I looked yesterday, the soundings were very Virga hostile in what was the 87-93 hour period when the snow was off to the south in southern NJ, if that held up we would snow relatively quickly

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12z NAM is similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. It's further north and stronger than the last two GFS runs.

 

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

 

Notice how the upper air has already closed itself off in Kentucky at hr 84. If you extrapolate this run further, you're likely looking at 24+ inches in Eastern PA and Maryland and 12+" for NYC.

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I really wish we wouldn't examine the Nam at HR84... Especially since HR 84, isn't even to the east coast yet...

Not being an A-hole either, just a lot of readers that look to this for good info, and posting Nam snow charts is NOT good info at 4 days away from event

The NAM amped rule is tricky in this event because it's bias could be causing it to both dig heavily like the Euro but at the same time not be occluding the low fast enough once the system closes off. So one or both could be at play due to the model's tendencies beyond 60 hours

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The NAM amped rule is tricky in this event because it's bias could be causing it to both dig heavily like the Euro but at the same time not be occluding the low fast enough once the system closes off. So one or both could be at play due to the model's tendencies beyond 60 hours

I agree, we also ALL know the nams gonna print out outlandish QPF numbers by Thursday AM for atleast 1 run

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Important to remember that the storm is first hitting the west coast today, so I wouldn't expect models to start to align until tonight at 0z, maybe even 12z tomorrow.

Also, I keep hearing suppression...as many smarter than me have pointed out, the less snow in the NYC area vs DCA isn't suppression, it's the loss of dynamics.

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Exactly! 2 years ago I do believe we had a blizzard, beast she was! Wet had heavy snow for hours then around midnight east end got an hour of rain, with 10 inches already on ground and power already out. Then back to all snow,heavy in fact, and everything was a thick mess! Snow, ice snow... Power out till at least 10 am.... I'll take all snow over anything wet inbetween!

...remember that well..turned to rain here in eastport too..major tree damage..aborvities took

a beating..we had thunder snow right before the c/o..NWS discussion blamed the c/o on "latent heat"

from the lightening..unreal!!

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Important to remember that the storm is first hitting the west coast today, so I wouldn't expect models to start to align until tonight at 0z, maybe even 12z tomorrow.

Also, I keep hearing suppression...as many smarter than me have pointed out, the less snow in the NYC area vs DCA isn't suppression, it's the loss of dynamics.

Great post! Thank you!!

All about when and where this thing closes off.

BTW, are you the same poster from TriState and the old Bill Evans board?

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Would think with the +5 anomaly waters off the coast that the trend is in the more northerly/westerly direction with respect to track. Time will tell, of course, but I think the late jog NW on the models for the Sunday storm is a pretty decent barometer for what happens here as well.

Edit: Not at all liking the way this looks for coastal flooding. Beaches are going to take a beating from this.

Full moon. This is the beast nor'easter i knew was coming this winter

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