SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Stolen from the MidAtlantic thread - ya think there might be a good WAA thump with this one? The setup looks good for some sort of big initial overrunning here. It's tough to know if that will happen, even as the event is beginning because models often will miss it. When I looked yesterday, the soundings were very Virga hostile in what was the 87-93 hour period when the snow was off to the south in southern NJ, if that held up we would snow relatively quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z NAM is similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. It's further north and stronger than the last two GFS runs. Notice how the upper air has already closed itself off in Kentucky at hr 84. If you extrapolate this run further, you're likely looking at 24+ inches in Eastern PA and Maryland and 12+" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I really wish we wouldn't examine the Nam at HR84... Especially since HR 84, isn't even to the east coast yet... Not being an A-hole either, just a lot of readers that look to this for good info, and posting Nam snow charts is NOT good info at 4 days away from event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I really wish we wouldn't examine the Nam at HR84... Especially since HR 84, isn't even to the east coast yet... Not being an A-hole either, just a lot of readers that look to this for good info, and posting Nam snow charts is NOT good info at 4 days away from event The NAM amped rule is tricky in this event because it's bias could be causing it to both dig heavily like the Euro but at the same time not be occluding the low fast enough once the system closes off. So one or both could be at play due to the model's tendencies beyond 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The NAM amped rule is tricky in this event because it's bias could be causing it to both dig heavily like the Euro but at the same time not be occluding the low fast enough once the system closes off. So one or both could be at play due to the model's tendencies beyond 60 hours I agree, we also ALL know the nams gonna print out outlandish QPF numbers by Thursday AM for atleast 1 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Important to remember that the storm is first hitting the west coast today, so I wouldn't expect models to start to align until tonight at 0z, maybe even 12z tomorrow. Also, I keep hearing suppression...as many smarter than me have pointed out, the less snow in the NYC area vs DCA isn't suppression, it's the loss of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Exactly! 2 years ago I do believe we had a blizzard, beast she was! Wet had heavy snow for hours then around midnight east end got an hour of rain, with 10 inches already on ground and power already out. Then back to all snow,heavy in fact, and everything was a thick mess! Snow, ice snow... Power out till at least 10 am.... I'll take all snow over anything wet inbetween! ...remember that well..turned to rain here in eastport too..major tree damage..aborvities took a beating..we had thunder snow right before the c/o..NWS discussion blamed the c/o on "latent heat" from the lightening..unreal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Important to remember that the storm is first hitting the west coast today, so I wouldn't expect models to start to align until tonight at 0z, maybe even 12z tomorrow. Also, I keep hearing suppression...as many smarter than me have pointed out, the less snow in the NYC area vs DCA isn't suppression, it's the loss of dynamics. Great post! Thank you!! All about when and where this thing closes off. BTW, are you the same poster from TriState and the old Bill Evans board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Would think with the +5 anomaly waters off the coast that the trend is in the more northerly/westerly direction with respect to track. Time will tell, of course, but I think the late jog NW on the models for the Sunday storm is a pretty decent barometer for what happens here as well. Edit: Not at all liking the way this looks for coastal flooding. Beaches are going to take a beating from this. Full moon. This is the beast nor'easter i knew was coming this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS identical through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS identical through 60. Out to 69, agreed... Maybe a touch more like 0z than 6z, no significant changes that I recognize. I'll defer to the someone else to finish off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The confluence to the Northeast is stronger this run on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The base of the trough is also sharper which would probably mean a further NW track initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The confluence to the Northeast is stronger this run on the GFS. So wouldn't that help with a further North track or no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 500mb low will stay closed this run as opposed to opening up like 06z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Mid Atlantic said its south? Isentropic what's your thought s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So wouldn't that help with a further North track or no?? Stronger confluence means more dry air to the North so a sharper cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I thought it looked a little south at hour60 myself compared to pay few runs, but that's as far as I've loaded so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So wouldn't that help with a further North track or no??It could provide a limit to how far north heavy snow would get. Confluence = sinking air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Precip shield is further South this run thanks to the stronger confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Low a little further south on the coast at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wondering what the role of warmer than normal SSTs will be in influencing track. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hour 84 low deft is south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Shift everything about 50 miles South so far. This could be a very ugly run for the far Northern Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's pretty clearly a bit south. The northern confluence just prevents it from going NW any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The mid-level jet (700mb) strengthens right overhead Saturday afternoon so that's a great signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Once the coastal takes over everyone gets blasted. The biggest difference is the overrunning is South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 BWI-DC corridor gets absolutely crushed. Going to be 3 feet plus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Keep in mind, at hour 78, looked at about 6 past model runs for comparing, the low has been moving up and down left right but it's been really in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The whole area gets walloped by the CCB on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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