bluewave Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just saw the 0z Euro parallel which is going operational in March. It is further NW like the ensemble mean and has heavier snows across our area than the old OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For some perspective, with NYC, along with DCA, PHL, and BOS in the hunt for 10" or more of snow, it should be noted that the only January storm since 1950 that produced 10" or more in all four cities is the January 1996 blizzard.would be very happy ..with 5-10 inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Common model error is what the 0z Euro showed at 96hrs...two lows??? Theres No support for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The parallel Euro gives around two feet for the Lakewood area. A foot fit the city, more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With an abnormally warm December and a slightly warmer than normal January I think sea surface temps are being ignored, at least by more than a few people. Depending on the track why would this not have a fair impact on totals, or possible mixing issues, especially in central to eastern Suffolk county and the Twin Forks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With an abnormally warm December and a slightly warmer than normal January I think sea surface temps are being ignored, at least by more than a few people. Depending on the track why would this not have a fair impact on totals, or possible mixing issues, especially in central to eastern Suffolk county and the Twin Forks? It's all about the track of the storm and keeping a more NE flow along with a closed low CCB passing over us. Remember that the early November 2012 record snowstorm had SST's in the mid 50's and we have mid 40's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For some perspective, with NYC, along with DCA, PHL, and BOS in the hunt for 10" or more of snow, it should be noted that the only January storm since 1950 that produced 10" or more in all four cities is the January 1996 blizzard. I think January 1964 and 1961 came close with DC getting less than 10"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Common model error is what the 0z Euro showed at 96hrs...two lows??? Theres No support for that! I'm more suspicious of the over digging of the shortwave which causes a far south track and the low ultimately closing off well south. This in a winter where nothing has dug as far south as models have projected and has been more north and west than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With an abnormally warm December and a slightly warmer than normal January I think sea surface temps are being ignored, at least by more than a few people. Depending on the track why would this not have a fair impact on totals, or possible mixing issues, especially in central to eastern Suffolk county and the Twin Forks?Upton discusses the warm SSTs in their discussion and how that could have an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 00z Parallel Euro was a very good run for everyone in this sub forum including the far NW interior Counties like Sullivan and Ulster. Conservative SV maps are showing 8"+ for everyone with a gradient over NJ working towards NYC. More closer to Philly (18"+) and less as you move further NE (8-10"+). It's too early to talk numbers specifically but it would appear that a general 12-18" snowfall is on the table with the hardest hit areas approaching 24"+ and the lesser areas receiving closer to 8-12". There could be some mixing issues at the immediate coast but that will probably be mostly limited to the South shore of LI, twin forks and coastal Central/Southern NJ. If I had to make a guess based on the latest guidance, the closer you live to Philly the better off you're probably going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just stating the obvious, but we still have the chance of receiving 5" (or less), or 25" (or more). Anything is possible right now. Any forecasts of 10-20" or so that we may see just show the uncertainty of this event. Remember, the models have been spitting out the snow totals based on where they believe the heaviest banding or "blobs" of heavy precip will fall. However, even models that help to pinpoint these bands have some crazy shifts inside of 10 hours. On models like the GFS and Canadian, for example, the NYC area may go from 23" to 8" in one model run because of where the model places these heavy bands of snow. As long as the pieces still come together each day up until the day this begins, we are good. At that point we can begin to try to take a stab at where these bands will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just stating the obvious, but we still have the chance of receiving 5" (or less), or 25" (or more). Anything is possible right now. Any forecasts of 10-20" or so that we may see just show the uncertainty of this event. Remember, the models have been spitting out the snow totals based on where they believe the heaviest banding or "blobs" of heavy precip will fall. However, even models that help to pinpoint these bands have some crazy shifts inside of 10 hours. On models like the GFS and Canadian, for example, the NYC area may go from 23" to 8" in one model run because of where the model places these heavy bands of snow. As long as the pieces still come together each day up until the day this begins, we are good. At that point we can begin to try to take a stab at where these bands will set up Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just stating the obvious, but we still have the chance of receiving 5" (or less), or 25" (or more). Anything is possible right now. Any forecasts of 10-20" or so that we may see just show the uncertainty of this event. Remember, the models have been spitting out the snow totals based on where they believe the heaviest banding or "blobs" of heavy precip will fall. However, even models that help to pinpoint these bands have some crazy shifts inside of 10 hours. On models like the GFS and Canadian, for example, the NYC area may go from 23" to 8" in one model run because of where the model places these heavy bands of snow. As long as the pieces still come together each day up until the day this begins, we are good. At that point we can begin to try to take a stab at where these bands will set upWhen the hi-res models are in range (save the 84 hr NAM) we will start to nail down where the heaviest banding and CCB will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here she comes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Upton "THERE IS GROWING POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Three-four days out so need to temper our hopes and refine the forecast with time as we get closer. Potential and pattern looks good but data sampling out in the Pacific is just beginning and then we will see how the northern and southern jet streams interact. Current chances for snow as per NWS: Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Nam? Still too early to really tell, but so far looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Three-four days out so need to temper our hopes and refine the forecast with time as we get closer. Potential and pattern looks good but data sampling out in the Pacific is just beginning and then we will see how the northern and southern jet streams interact. Current chances for snow as per NWS: Friday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Up from 60% and 60% respectively on the point and clikc from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Due to the potential impacts of this event being quite severe and the overwhelming concensus for a 6"+ snowfall it wouldn't at all surprise me to see watches hoisted by tomorrow morning. Watches are already in place around KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Due to the potential impacts of this event being quite severe and the overwhelming concensus for a 6"+ snowfall it wouldn't at all surprise me to see watches hoisted by tomorrow morning. Watches are already in place around KY. I would think Wed after 3pm-4pm the 1st watches could be issued, at that point still would be 48 hours away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Stolen from the MidAtlantic thread - ya think there might be a good WAA thump with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Would think with the +5 anomaly waters off the coast that the trend is in the more northerly/westerly direction with respect to track. Time will tell, of course, but I think the late jog NW on the models for the Sunday storm is a pretty decent barometer for what happens here as well. Edit: Not at all liking the way this looks for coastal flooding. Beaches are going to take a beating from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would think Wed after 3pm-4pm the 1st watches could be issued, at that point still would be 48 hours away... Yeah tomorrow morning's too soon but I could see Mt Holly issuing them for their southern zones by then where snow will be under way already Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Orients Nws forecast at moment also increased %. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would think Wed after 3pm-4pm the 1st watches could be issued, at that point still would be 48 hours away...I think they wait until oz wed or 6z thur ..but that's just splitting hairs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Because of where I work, state park, that had some really really high tides last wind event,last week or 2 weeks ago,with a new moon, highest in really a long long time. With this monster, anyone have access to surge maps? I've seen them but have since forgotten where. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Orients Nws forecast at moment also increased %. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. I see that, and you guys also have borderline surface temps which translates to a wet snow event. Caution will be directed for roof tops and tree limbs in your neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I see that, and you guys also have borderline surface temps which translates to a wet snow event. Caution will be directed for roof tops and tree limbs in your neighborhood. Exactly! 2 years ago I do believe we had a blizzard, beast she was! Wet had heavy snow for hours then around midnight east end got an hour of rain, with 10 inches already on ground and power already out. Then back to all snow,heavy in fact, and everything was a thick mess! Snow, ice snow... Power out till at least 10 am.... I'll take all snow over anything wet inbetween! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM through 84. hmm coming right at us??,looking gd so far even far a nam model at 84 hrs lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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