weatherfreeeeak Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 They come out at 3. Anyone have updates on them yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From what I heard, The EPS looks great through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The EPS is definitely more NW with the placement of the LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From what I heard, The EPS looks great through NYC. Actually looks a little better than 12z. NYC Metro area and south is solidly in 12"+ on the mean, 15"+ over central Jersey. The mean is probably slightly further south, but overall not much change to my eyes. There's good clustering of the members until about 00z on Sunday when there's some divergence, one camp starts to pull away ENE, the other, larger, group is west of the mean (and a few stragglers headed SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 College Park thinks the OP 0z Euro may have had initialization issues due to it using slightly older data than the GFS. THE LOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS PLAGUED BY CONCERNS WITH THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND ULTIMATELY MORE SOUTHWARDCROSSING THE APPALACHIANS COMPARED WITH MOST OTHERSOLUTIONS...WHICH HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATIONALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 4/5. TRACING THE LOW TO ITS PRESENTLOCATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS THE ECMWF TO BE A BIT SLOWINITIALLY WHICH MAY HAVE TO DO WITH ITS OLDER INITIALIZATION ANDGREATER RELIANCE UPON PRIOR FIRST GUESS FIELDS VERSUS THE GFSWHICH IS MORE RECENT AND OFTEN MORE SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS INOBSERVATIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 College Park thinks the OP 0z Euro may have had initialization issues due to it using slightly older data than the GFS.Well then. Looks like we may have to toss the 00Z Euro and see what the 12Z Euro will put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z quick update : Hair colder. Really looks good dc-Balt-philly nw-NYC. Long wood gardens PA or somewhere down that way looks like a jackpot. That's moved further NE. Especially against overnight euro. Tight tight gradient far NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 College Park thinks the OP 0z Euro may have had initialization issues due to it using slightly older data than the GFS. Is part of that cut off? Seems like they're referencing the 12z EC. I don't see mention of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z was not a good run for NW guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z was not a good run for NW guys Got a feeling from what little came out here overnight that this storm is trending south, but I can't read models...how far NW do you mean? Big Jim says NW of NYC seems ok, I am SW a bit from Manhattan. Seems like MA is the place to be, though we should not be outta the game. How far NW are you? Could not sleep much do to other reasons, so am up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z was not a good run for NW guys By the way I normally stick to banter, but those folks ain't up yet...always appreciate your input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Got a feeling from what little came out here overnight that this storm is trending south, but I can't read models...how far NW do you mean? Big Jim says NW of NYC seems ok, I am SW a bit from Manhattan. Seems like MA is the place to be, though we should not be outta the game. How far NW are you? Could not sleep much do to other reasons, so am up... I would say anyone north of Rockland county, sharp cutoff again.... We've seen these flip flop over the last couple days tho, this started out a southern trend, came back north yesterday... If the 12z and tonight's 00z are similar I'd be concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 30 miles is the difference between 3" and 15" on the 06z GFS.... Not sold on that right of cutoff, especially with a weakening high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Regardless of how this plays out in the end, I think the city will be good for at least a 12" snowfall. If the heaviest snow stays just to our south then I don't see much more then that, a slight shift north could add several more inches onto that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I would say anyone north of Rockland county, sharp cutoff again.... We've seen these flip flop over the last couple days tho, this started out a southern trend, came back north yesterday... If the 12z and tonight's 00z are similar I'd be concerned well I would say that still sounds like a huge spread thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Regardless of how this plays out in the end, I think the city will be good for at least a 12" snowfall. If the heaviest snow stays just to our south then I don't see much more then that, a slight shift north could add several more inches onto that. Thanks we are in the same vicinity so I usually pay attention to your observations. Guess we'll know more in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z GFS looks nice, 1.5" - 2.0" QPF and plenty cold for the metro... http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z GFS looks nice, 1.5" - 2.0" QPF and plenty cold for the metro... http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif Impressive snowfall totals. On the 6z GFS the h5 doesn't close up so in consequence it keeps the storm moving. NYC gets 15-20 inches on this run with much less as you head north into Southern NY state. I would say it's a step to last nights euro but not quite as dramatic. The 12z model runs will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How are the winds around the city on Sat? Would a blizzard warning be issue based on the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Read that the new European para has low On the benchmark with much more snow for NYC on north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sometimes the OP Euro is a little fast to close off 500 mb lows. The ensemble mean is further north since it takes longer to close off. The ensemble mean is closer to the GFS. ps2png-atls06-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-n5oxeE.png ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-9WMB3w.png Is it right in saying the GFS has been more consistent with track vs Euros wobbling a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is it right in saying the GFS has been more consistent with track vs Euros wobbling a bit? GFS has done the most wobbling especially with the northern precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is it right in saying the GFS has been more consistent with track vs Euros wobbling a bit? If you wanna look at consistency, the GGEM has been unchanged since Friday nights runs... Nobody really seems to mention that tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How are the winds around the city on Sat? Would a blizzard warning be issue based on the 06z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Today will be key to see if everything holds serve. At this point we are only about 84 hours away so some fine tuning will need to be done over the next couple days. As it stands the NYC area to around 50 miles north look to be in a good place at this time. Areas to the South and South West look to be in a pretty sweet spot at this time. Let's see how things play out today. Remember it's our first big potential of the season. So if it brings 6, 12 or whatever we should all still be excited because this winter will still have more systems over the next 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Read that the new European para has low On the benchmark with much more snow for NYC on north and east.It's better for NW areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The pros are not discussing snow totals and neither should we. Sampling will be much better late tonight into tomorrow. The WPC is evidently worried about p-type issues at the coast. Despite DC hitting the jackpot in the recent models, the WPC probability forecast accounts for the possibility for a further NW track. NYC has a higher probability of snow than DC. Also, their QPF forecast has us in the 2" range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 LOW ENTERING THE TN VALLEY ON DAY 3 IS PLAGUED BY CONCERNS WITHTHE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND ULTIMATELY MORE SOUTHWARDCROSSING THE APPALACHIANS COMPARED WITH MOST OTHERSOLUTIONS...WHICH HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATIONALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 4/5. TRACING THE LOW TO ITS PRESENTLOCATION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS THE ECMWF TO BE A BIT SLOWINITIALLY WHICH MAY HAVE TO DO WITH ITS OLDER INITIALIZATION ANDGREATER RELIANCE UPON PRIOR FIRST GUESS FIELDS VERSUS THE GFSWHICH IS MORE RECENT AND OFTEN MORE SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE SHIFTS INOBSERVATIONS. THUS...THE SYSTEM IN THE EAST IS NUDGED MOSTLYTOWARD THE 18Z GFS WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANSAND A LITTLE ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD. Yeah but that's referencing the 12z run, not the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The Euro ensemble mean is still NW of the OP and closer to the GFS at 0z. I still haven't seen the 0z new Hi res euro which is set to go operational in March. Agreed, but it is something to note that they made that comment about 12z and then 0z comes out like it did.Kind of negates the "18z gfs had new data the 12z euro didn't" argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 For some perspective, with NYC, along with DCA, PHL, and BOS in the hunt for 10" or more of snow, it should be noted that the only January storm since 1950 that produced 10" or more in all four cities is the January 1996 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.