IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Closes off way SW of the GFS. SW TN vs Northern KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Upper level jet is even better this run. Everything looks amazing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Upper level jet is even better this run. Everything looks amazing so far. What a monster, two closed contours. I almost can't believe what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z para GFS looks like 2"QPF for NYC, LI. EDIT: 1.75+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Taking it's time. Pretty dry North of 195 through 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Taking it's time. Pretty dry North of 195 through 12z Saturday.Uh oh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Finally snows moving in Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is going to be much further south. 500mb low cut-off in a not so great spot, and a bit too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Another monster hit, just a slower evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is going to be much further south. 500mb low cut-off in a not so great spot, and a bit too early. The CCB hammers everyone. The initial dump is further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is going to be much further south. 500mb low cut-off in a not so great spot, and a bit too early. Another monster hit, just a slower evolution. Which one is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Much slower evolution and the SLP was further south Still a big hit. Nothing to panic over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is close to a heartbreaker for the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This run is close to a heartbreaker for the far interior. what's the far interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 what's the far interiorUlster/Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just need the low to close off 6hrs later and we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 There are obviously going to be run to run variations, IMO I think the Euro may be a little slow on this run. Have to see what the ensembles say, but still sounds like a big hit for the NYC metro nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 what's the QPF for the city metro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I'd rather be suppressed at this point as opposed to a coastal hugger. It's easier for these to crawl back north If the EPS are also south, then we may have some work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 what's the QPF for the city metro? KNYC gets about an inch HPN with .8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro qpf bulls eye is NE WV with over 3.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Needs to speed up and not close off so quickly...otherwise we have Feb 5-6 2010 again. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is not going to be like Feb 5-6. The blocking was extreme during that storm. The Euro has a slow bias while the gfs is often deemed more progressive, so split them down the middle and that's probably where we'll end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 euro and GFS very consistent....NYC area is on the fringe right now...we'll see, but 6-12" ain't a bad starting point right now at most. i'm hoping for a northward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is not going to be like Feb 5-6. The blocking was extreme during that storm. The Euro has a slow bias while the gfs is often deemed more progressive, so split them down the middle and that's probably where we'll end up. The problem is how far south the upper low digs and cuts off on the model. That means the snow can only really get so far north before the pattern pushes the cut off low east and out to sea. Also, it occludes too soon and dynamics aren't as good for you guys as they would be for DC and points west. The issue isn't really confluence this time like 2/5/2010. At some point the low is going to get pushed out to sea, because it will be cut off from the main jet stream and won't be able to continue poleward, but the upper low and system as a whole are still being forced east by what's behind it. I wouldn't worry yet, but if models trend this way later today and tomorrow, it's concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The problem is how far south the upper low digs and cuts off on the model. That means the snow can only really get so far north before the pattern pushes the cut off low east and out to sea. Also, it occludes too soon and dynamics aren't as good for you guys as they would be for DC and points west. The issue isn't really confluence this time like 2/5/2010. At some point the low is going to get pushed out to sea, because it will be cut off from the main jet stream and won't be able to continue poleward, but the upper low and system as a whole are still being forced east by what's behind it. I wouldn't worry yet, but if models trend this way later today and tomorrow, it's concerning. I'll get a bit concerned if the ensemble agree. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When do the ensemble come out thanks I'll get a bit concerned if the ensemble agree. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When do the ensemble come out thanks I'll get a bit concerned if the ensemble agree. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk 0330-0400 I believe Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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