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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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This is not going to be like Feb 5-6. The blocking was extreme during that storm. The Euro has a slow bias while the gfs is often deemed more progressive, so split them down the middle and that's probably where we'll end up.

The problem is how far south the upper low digs and cuts off on the model. That means the snow can only really get so far north before the pattern pushes the cut off low east and out to sea. Also, it occludes too soon and dynamics aren't as good for you guys as they would be for DC and points west. The issue isn't really confluence this time like 2/5/2010. At some point the low is going to get pushed out to sea, because it will be cut off from the main jet stream and won't be able to continue poleward, but the upper low and system as a whole are still being forced east by what's behind it. 

 

I wouldn't worry yet, but if models trend this way later today and tomorrow, it's concerning. 

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The problem is how far south the upper low digs and cuts off on the model. That means the snow can only really get so far north before the pattern pushes the cut off low east and out to sea. Also, it occludes too soon and dynamics aren't as good for you guys as they would be for DC and points west. The issue isn't really confluence this time like 2/5/2010. At some point the low is going to get pushed out to sea, because it will be cut off from the main jet stream and won't be able to continue poleward, but the upper low and system as a whole are still being forced east by what's behind it.

I wouldn't worry yet, but if models trend this way later today and tomorrow, it's concerning.

I'll get a bit concerned if the ensemble agree.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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