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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Things like mesoscale banding won't be figured out until very close in. The mid levels support a massive event, though. Winds will be tremendous.

To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. 

 

I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. 

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To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. 

 

I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. 

 

 

 

569dc3dab7d5e_ScreenShot2016-01-19at12.0

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This is a storm where even if the CCB were to shaft us there would be potential for surprising significant early overrunning snows that aren't exactly showing up and may not show up til the last 12/24 hours. The mid level setup at 87/93 hours looks very good for that

 

Agree the CMC ensembles are 1.5 

 

 

The duration alone will make it a wet system 

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To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. 

 

I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. 

http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New%20York-Long%20Island/Jones%20Inlet/2016-01        4.2 on the 23 isn't too bad scroll back on the months  and you will see almost 5.0

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Hey guys. I live right on the water southwestern Suffolk. Any thoughts on storm surge and tidal departures? I'm honestly worried with this setup. I'm right on a canal. :-/

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We'll have a better idea in a couple days but at the very least expect the typical areas of Lindenhurst and Copiague to flood at least moderately. And in Nassau, Freeport. That's only speaking about the south shore back bays/canals. If the winds have a more northerly component, the flooding will be much less IMO.

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Moderately meaning? Any idea on feet above normal? I'm in Copiague harbor. Flooded during sandy. But nothing since really.

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Your area should be ok then. Minor flooding is possible. But parts of Lindenhurst flood in most coastal storms.

Im not about to guess how hide the tide will be above astronomical high tide at this time.

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This is a storm where even if the CCB were to shaft us there would be potential for surprising significant early overrunning snows that aren't exactly showing up and may not show up til the last 12/24 hours. The mid level setup at 87/93 hours looks very good for that

For educational purposes:  Cold Conveyor Belts, Warm Conveyor Belts, Dry Conveyor Belts.

 

http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter12/warm_cold_conveyor.html

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Cool. No problem. Would never hold it against you if you made a guess. Thanks so much either way! Some storm coming! Can't wait!!

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You're welcome.

I'm sure Bluewave will touch on this tomorrow. The NWS will too eventually. Give it a couple days.

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