F5TornadoF5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ukmet looks similar to CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The global model QPF is very high, especially at this range and with this consistency. 1.5-2, over and over. This isn't the NAM we're talking about here. (and higher QPF down in DC!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC went from 22 inches to 9 inches in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CMC went from 22 inches to 9 inches in the city. Low placement supports a significant system. Again, QPF is one of the last things we work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Low placement supports a significant system. Again, QPF is one of the last things we work out. Things like mesoscale banding won't be figured out until very close in. The mid levels support a massive event, though. Winds will be tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the CMC, when the low exits the coast, does it actually pull away to the ESE for a while? Not sure I've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Things like mesoscale banding won't be figured out until very close in. The mid levels support a massive event, though. Winds will be tremendous. To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS are even better this run. NYC gets about 1.25" and the low is tucked in like the OP, UKMET, and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GEFS are even better this run. NYC gets about 1.25" and the low is tucked in like the OP, UKMET, and CMC That's an absolutely insane signal for an ensemble mean at this lead time. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is a storm where even if the CCB were to shaft us there would be potential for surprising significant early overrunning snows that aren't exactly showing up and may not show up til the last 12/24 hours. The mid level setup at 87/93 hours looks very good for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GGEM Mean has 1.50 QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is a storm where even if the CCB were to shaft us there would be potential for surprising significant early overrunning snows that aren't exactly showing up and may not show up til the last 12/24 hours. The mid level setup at 87/93 hours looks very good for that Agree the CMC ensembles are 1.5 The duration alone will make it a wet system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GGEM Mean has 1.50 QPF for NYCVery encouraging given the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the strong winds should keep this from being boring at any time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 These big time systems that show up in El Nino years are usually quite wet. Think of Feb 2010 for the DC area/Philly, PDII, Feb 1983, etc. This looks to have some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Courtesy of Doug S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Courtesy of Doug S Look Doug's model page. One of my first bookmarks on my S5's google broswer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 To be honest, that's the one thing that really concerns me here. The beaches and bays will take a big time pounding if there are hours and hours of 50-60+ mph winds slamming waves and a surge into them. Parts of my hometown flooded from the last storm which was significantly weaker than this one could be. I think this will be a wet system overall. It will have a direct tap from the Gulf and El Nino-enhanced Pacific. How high up on the NESIS scale is to be determined, but the depictions now would probably rate a high-end 3 if not a 4. http://ny.usharbors.com/monthly-tides/New%20York-Long%20Island/Jones%20Inlet/2016-01 4.2 on the 23 isn't too bad scroll back on the months and you will see almost 5.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 0% for Long Island. Map must be faulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey guys. I live right on the water southwestern Suffolk. Any thoughts on storm surge and tidal departures? I'm honestly worried with this setup. I'm right on a canal. :-/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey guys. I live right on the water southwestern Suffolk. Any thoughts on storm surge and tidal departures? I'm honestly worried with this setup. I'm right on a canal. :-/ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We'll have a better idea in a couple days but at the very least expect the typical areas of Lindenhurst and Copiague to flood at least moderately. And in Nassau, Freeport. That's only speaking about the south shore back bays/canals. If the winds have a more northerly component, the flooding will be much less IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Moderately meaning? Any idea on feet above normal? I'm in Copiague harbor. Flooded during sandy. But nothing since really. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Moderately meaning? Any idea on feet above normal? I'm in Copiague harbor. Flooded during sandy. But nothing since really. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Your area should be ok then. Minor flooding is possible. But parts of Lindenhurst flood in most coastal storms. Im not about to guess how hide the tide will be above astronomical high tide at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Cool. No problem. Would never hold it against you if you made a guess. Thanks so much either way! Some storm coming! Can't wait!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This is a storm where even if the CCB were to shaft us there would be potential for surprising significant early overrunning snows that aren't exactly showing up and may not show up til the last 12/24 hours. The mid level setup at 87/93 hours looks very good for that For educational purposes: Cold Conveyor Belts, Warm Conveyor Belts, Dry Conveyor Belts. http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter12/warm_cold_conveyor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Cool. No problem. Would never hold it against you if you made a guess. Thanks so much either way! Some storm coming! Can't wait!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You're welcome. I'm sure Bluewave will touch on this tomorrow. The NWS will too eventually. Give it a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Euro looking great through 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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