Kaner587 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I read a tweet that it did and was another miss to the south. Maybe someone can confirm? If it was indeed another total miss, I'd say it's an extreme outlier right now based on 12z and 18z today 12z euro para not out yet. Right now on wb it's only he 00z which was a complete miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Could be some bad flooding in NJ with a full moon and Near hurricane force winds.Yup. A Full Wolf Moon and near hurricane force winds. It's going to get messy along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yup. A Full Wolf Moon and near hurricane force winds. It's going to get messy along the coast. yea. Hoping folks on NJ coast are paying attention to this storm. They learned their lesson from sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the other hand if it occluded 6-12 hours later the heaviest snows would be further NE but you'd have more mixing issues I'd think. I think everyone wants this to occlude later. Early occlusion also wraps more warm air around the low. Later occlusion might nudge the track a little east, and the coast-for coastal flooding reasons as well as warm air wrapping in-wants the stall/occlude to be offshore. A NE wind would be better than an ENE wind for piling up less water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z euro para not out yet. Right now on wb it's only he 00z which was a complete miss Yeah it's been running late, the 00Z was a good 5 hours late today this one is already almost 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I think everyone wants this to occlude later. Early occlusion also wraps more warm air around the low. Later occlusion might nudge the track a little east, and the coast-for coastal flooding reasons as well as warm air wrapping in-wants the stall/occlude to be offshore. A NE wind would be better than an ENE wind for piling up less water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 CIPS Analogs. #3 =0 Here are the analogs from CIPS for this upcoming storm. They were all big blizzards : 1983, Blizzard of 1996, Feb 2010,Dec 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Here are the analogs from CIPS for this upcoming storm. They were all big blizzards : 1983, Blizzard of 1996, Feb 2010,Dec 2010 It looks really good for your region. Enjoy guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If I could pick a spot I would want to see the 84 hour NAM be based on its usual 84 hour bias, tonight's 00Z is just about ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 If I could pick a spot I would want to see the 84 hour NAM be based on its usual 84 hour bias, tonight's 00Z is just about ideal Care to elaborate please? I'm assuming it's very amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 00z NAM is pretty much where you'd want to see it at this point EDIT: Ninja'd by Goose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is rolling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 And? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Slightly more dug in at 57 hours, otherwise everything looks on point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not much a change in GFS -- little (insignificantly) faster, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Heights look great in the east, trough looks more amplified, but there is also more confluence this run over New England which should help out the metros precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Slightly faster and bit more amped up through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys forky created a model thread for the storm, dont jump over now mid pbp but for the future stuff just head over there if you remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys forky created a model thread for the storm, dont jump over now mid pbp but for the future stuff just head over there if you remember. That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now. Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now. Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off. Agreed. There is little need to divide discussion even further, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now. Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off. I agree if this is the coastalk storm discussion then this where is PBP should go. was tough enough when this thread wasnt pinned, now that it is this would be really confusing and diffusing for dicussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Personally, my suggestion is that model images used as support for points raised should go here and those one wants to save for posterity should go in the dropbox thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Model pbp is the actual worst. I support an analysis/discussion-only thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Complicated and challenging forecast ahead. Sharp cut off of where the heaviest snow falls (mesoscale banding) and the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Personally, my suggestion is that model images used as support for points raised should go here and those one wants to save for posterity should go in the dropbox thread. 'Twas my assumption as well... Now it seems we'll have to click back and forth. Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yup, combine the threads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Colder run for the coast. Perfect for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I see no reason to be concerned with mixing on island. Many times before was suppose to buy never happens,at least not on northern side of island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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