Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 LI does have some mixing issues on 18z That's one thing I'm not too worried about at this point. If I was on the east end, then yea maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 We certainly could dry slot. I hope not. I will really start paying attention to that stuff 48 hrs and in. Exactly. It's 5 days out. Nobody should even be thinking about mixing, dryslot, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/nUUH4pA.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm not sure C/E LI would see more than 3-6" or so from this verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The dry slot near the center is a sign of a mature system with a well developed CCB. If the system stalls too close to the coast, a temporary dry slot is certainly possible. Also this run had some warmer air that would limit totals some especially South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 10-20" up to Albany... If wed night is still going strong, I'm all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'm not sure C/E LI would see more than 3-6" or so from this verbatim Yea? What guidance supports that "verbatim"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 And then sit under wrap around snows for hours and hoursVerbatim on the GFS run you're fine, but if it stalls sooner you might not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yea? What guidance supports that "verbatim"?SV only has most of Suffolk in the 4-8" range but my guess is the North shore would do quite well in the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Verbatim on the GFS run you're fine, but if it stalls sooner you might not be. I know i am fine, which is why the posts to the contrary are incorrect. Everyone looks to cash in, East, West, North, South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Winds are really strong along the coast. It snows from Friday through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 10-20" up to Albany... If wed night is still going strong, I'm all in We need all the players on the field. 12z Wed runs should tell the tale. Great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eye candy with "pretty colors" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eye candy with "pretty colors" lol Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seems like a strange solution to have eastern pa cash in like that unless the coast was going to change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 January 23th is also a full moon Coast flooding will be a problem too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Beautiful Looks like a small storm... ROLL EYES!!! Anyone thinking that based upon the GPS output that LI is only going to get 3-6" based upon some silly snow map needs their head examined.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks like a small storm... ROLL EYES!!! Anyone thinking that based upon the GPS output that LI is only going to get 3-6" based upon some silly snow map needs their head examined.. Agree. We all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 No one is changing to rain. Stop looking at snows maps. The 0 line is well S of L I with over an inch of liquid w 55mph wind gusts. It is there and probably along the NJ coast you would see blizzard warnings if the guidance stood. The heaviest axis may fall to your west but the banding too does not get figured out until we are within 24 hours. Do not use Snow maps for this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This CIPS analogs are finally out. They are insanely proliffic. Here is the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 List of analogs The most prolific NE blizzards are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Only a 2.5 foot surge is necessary to reach moderate coastal flooding since we have the high astro tide Saturday. That's a major problem because if the low tucks into the coast like that , the onshore flow would be ripping. Could be major to severe coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seems like a strange solution to have eastern pa cash in like that unless the coast was going to change to rainThe storm's dynamics max out over E PA, WV, MD and VA on this run. East from there the low stacks and dynamics become spottier along with a possible dry slot. Look up Jan 25, 2000 to see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The storm's dynamics max out over E PA, WV, MD and VA on this run. East from there the low stacks and dynamics become spottier along with a possible dry slot. Look up Jan 25, 2000 to see what I mean. Oh I remember but not everyone dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 this is one of the most impressive nor'easter wind forecasts i've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Major tidal flooding would start in the 3-4 foot surge range. That could easily be reached with an onshore flow of 45-55kt coinciding withe the time of high tide. I can remember being in the West End of Long Beach for the March 93 storm. The surge came in and floated the whole snowpack like icebergs. What didn't melt refroze in irregular shapes as the cold air came in behind the storm. I remember that too, one of my first weather memories. I could definitely see some bad coastal flooding happening, especially with a more tucked in and stalled low which would mean more of an onshore flow. The back bays for sure I can see taking it on the chin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 this is one of the most impressive nor'easter wind forecasts i've seen 50+ knot winds right into the Jersey Shore and south shore of LI. That's definitely enough to create a nasty surge and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The storm's dynamics max out over E PA, WV, MD and VA on this run. East from there the low stacks and dynamics become spottier along with a possible dry slot. Look up Jan 25, 2000 to see what I mean. Or boxing day for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 List of analogs The most prolific NE blizzards are here. How the heck are there two 1998 analogs there? That was one of the crappiest winters ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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