Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion

[jm1220]

The high flattens and retreats.. No

Way this is suppressed

Its still far enough out that you can't eliminate any possibility. The most likely outcome right now is significant snow event, but it wouldn't take a lot for the confluence north of the storm to be stronger and push the low ENE faster. Or, the stall can be in a bad place and push warm air into the coast, or there could be a nasty dry slot. I'd wait at least another 24 hours before really getting excited.

[bluewave]

Trying my hardest NOT to weenie here, but I've never seen this much agreement, this far out... Ops, ensembles etc...it's quit insane

 

I guess when the storm signal is big enough, it's easier for the models to see this far out. The Euro locked in 

right around 120 hrs for the February 2013 event and held serve through to the storm. But I can't remember

the last time all the models were showing something similar to this 120 hrs out. The GFS is usually weaker and

more suppressed than the Euro and this time frame with major East Coast storms.

[Morris]

Looking at the mid-atlantic (understanding that there is a chance it doesn't come up the coast,) is there any scenario where they don't get a big storm realistically.

[Superstorm93]

6" probs

 

Contours are the mean 

 

[snowman19]

Is the parallel Euro still showing suppression or did that fold too?

[SnowGoose69]

Is the parallel Euro still showing suppression or did that fold too?

That doesn't come out til 7pm I think

[Morris]

Is the parallel Euro still showing suppression or did that fold too?

 

It doesn't look like it's out yet.

[SnowGoose69]

Looking at the mid-atlantic (understanding that there is a chance it doesn't come up the coast,) is there any scenario where they don't get a big storm realistically.

Yeah if this pulls a March 2001. Many places down there could still get shafted by a northwest move of only a slight bit. Remember that down there near the coast a 040-050 wind isn't exactly good, they almost need to be 010 so they don't have nearly the margin for error on track as up here

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

The mean snowfall on the eps for NYC is a foot yes a foot of snow wow

when you say the mean what exactly does that mean all members see an average of a foot???

[TwcMan]

.

[Rittenhouse]

Biggest issue right now is mixing at the coast. The onshore flow with this storm is something fierce. Areas along I-95 could flip to sleet and/or rain.

[Morris]

Yeah if this pulls a March 2001. Many places down there could still get shafted by a northwest move of only a slight bit. Remember that down there near the coast a 040-050 wind isn't exactly good, they almost need to be 010 so they don't have nearly the margin for error on track as up here

 

Thanks!

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

when you say the mean what exactly does that mean all members see an average of a foot???

Yes it means the average of the sampled ensembles is a foot

[Blizzardo]

I said the same thing in banter about this much agreement this far out. Never seen anything like this before.

[North and West of Town]

I remember that March 1993 was pretty spot-on in terms of models catching it well in advance. I don't think January 1996 was as pronounced, if my memory serves correct. 

[SnowGoose69]

I remember that March 1993 was pretty spot-on in terms of models catching it well in advance. I don't think January 1996 was as pronounced, if my memory serves correct.

Models tends to do better with Miller As and this also doesn't exactly involve phasing of multiple short waves which makes it easier. 1996 was forecast very well by the Euro but the Euro only ran once a day then and people generally didn't give as much credence to it as they do now so it wasn't considered to be a likely solution when it was showing a hit 3-4 days out

[Drz1111]

That EPS looks like a textbook 1996-style storm.

[North and West of Town]

Models tends to do better with Miller As and this also doesn't exactly involve phasing of multiple short waves which makes it easier. 1996 was forecast very well by the Euro but the Euro only ran once a day then and people generally didn't give as much credence to it as they do now so it wasn't considered to be a likely solution when it was showing a hit 3-4 days out

 

Thank you for the reminder! One of those things that Social Media giveth, and Social Media taketh away. My memory is fuzzy from a time when my only outlet was TWC; now, I have this and meteorologists I can follow on FB/Twitter.

[Rittenhouse]

Take yer pick. OP (in blue) is still above the mean. A few ensembles are holding out for a bust, but the rest are slowly coming around.

 

[yhbrooklyn]

Models tends to do better with Miller As and this also doesn't exactly involve phasing of multiple short waves which makes it easier. 1996 was forecast very ,.*well by the Euro but the Euro only ran once a day then and people generally didn't give as much credence to it as they do now so it wasn't considered to be a likely solution when it was showing a hit 3-4 days out

Yeah, the AVN didn't have it until we were within 48 hours.

Edit: or was it the MRF?

[Rjay]

On 1/18/2016 at 4:15 PM, yhbrooklyn said:

Yeah, the AVN didn't have it until we were within 48 hours.

Edit: or was it the MRF?

Pretty sure is what the MRF. It was quite progressive compared to the Euro. I read the NWS pdf on it a couple years ago. Google it.

[Rjay]

Yeah, the AVN didn't have it until we were within 48 hours.

Edit: or was it the MRF?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf

[Superstorm93]

Parallel GFS 

 

[jan17]

GFS and Ecmwf  500 charts

 

both close off nicely.  expect north of the close to be where the snow hits

[jan17]

ecmwf 500

[wthrmn654]

6" probs

Contours are the mean

Even long island is 50% or better including Eastern areas.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Similar through 72 hrs

[Superstorm93]

18z GFS is even more amped up through 84 hours. 

 

Nice STJ connection as well. 

 

Should prove good latent heat release into the system when its near the south 

[Morris]

Wxbell lags its competitors in update speed.

[Juliancolton]

Similar through 72 hrs

 

I see hints of changes with the northern stream on this run. The first "clipper" shortwave is a little sharper, but also a little quicker to pass overhead, and the Ontario s/w is weaker. Won't speculate on implications, but worth keeping an eye on I suppose.