Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wednesday night if all holds serve. Even that could be a bit soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Even that could be a bit soonNo, watches typically go up 48hrs before onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Lol KMA Try not to break your neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WPC A PERSISTENT POSITIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSONBAY AND A NEGATIVE 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY NEAR 45N 145W THROUGHTHE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD SUPPORT EACH OTHER, AS WELL AS THEOCCASIONAL SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OFNORTH AMERICA AND THE PROGRESSION OF A CLOSED 500 HPA LOW NEAR 37NACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONTINENT, WHICH LEADS TO ATENDENCY FOR A MULTI-DAY MEAN TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THESE IDEAS AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,EVEN WITH MANY DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. FROM THURSDAY INTOSATURDAY, USED A FAIRLY EVEN COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00ZUKMET/06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF, WHICH DEALT WITH PROBLEMATIC ASPECTS WITHTHE FORECAST NEAR THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST. INPARTICULAR, THIS EFFECTIVELY DEALS WITH KNOWN ECMWF BIASES (SLOW)IN THE 72-132 HOUR FORECAST TIME FRAME OUT EAST (WHICH THIS TIMEWERE SUPPORTED BY ITS OWN 00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND MEAN). AS ANALTERNATIVE, THE 06Z GFS/NORTHWARD ADJUSTED 12Z UKMET OR ANY OFTHE AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEANS (06Z GEFS, 00Z NAEFS, 00Z ECMWF)WOULD ALSO BE REASONABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A storm like models have locked onto would likely support blizzard conditions areawide. The GFS had 30 knot or higher winds well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A storm like models have locked onto would likely support blizzard conditions areawide. The GFS had 30 knot or higher winds well inland. JM 12 + plus hours of 30+ knot sustained with 50 knot gusts with about 2 inches of liquid . Looks like a 24 hour event in total . Long event at your old stomping grounds . You flying back if this holds through Wed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I wouldnt be shocked if they issue blizzard watches for the area. Not this early brother Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Wednesday night if all holds serve. Even that could be a bit soon No, watches typically go up 48hrs before onset. If the storm continues to evolve as is currently depicted by the models then watches would most likely be issued either with the Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning forecast package. Warnings would most likely be issued either Thursday afternoon or Friday morning. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s794c.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably the greatest superkara block assist of all time if these day 5 progs verify close to what is being shown. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Which is why the upper air pattern would support this storm. The AO is still negative and with it rising over the next several days it helps with the robust storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Probably the greatest superkara block assist of all time if these day 5 progs verify close to what is being shown. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Can you tell me what a superkara block is please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 JM 12 + plus hours of 30+ knot sustained with 50 knot gusts with about 2 inches of liquid . Looks like a 24 hour event in total . Long event at your old stomping grounds . You flying back if this holds through Wed ? I'd like to. Whether I can or not is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'd like to. Whether I can or not is another story.I'll send a chopper for you bud. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 JMA is easily 1-2' for the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Excellent signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anything on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z EPS is just insane. The individuals are going to be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z EPS is just insane. The individuals are going to be nuts That's a thing of beauty. Looks very close to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 SV runs an extremely low res EPS. The WB maps have near a foot on the mean for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 SV runs an extremely low res EPS. The WB maps have near a foot on the mean for the city. Wow what are they showing for dc thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Trying my hardest NOT to weenie here, but I've never seen this much agreement, this far out... Ops, ensembles etc...it's quit insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The indies at 96 hours have the 500mb low even more amped and dug in than the OP Some are just absolutely obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow what are they showing for dc thanks! Mean is around 16-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS shows exa SV runs an extremely low res EPS. The WB maps have near a foot on the mean for the city. My untrained eye sees more like 16-18 in the city on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Trying my hardest NOT to weenie here, but I've never seen this much agreement, this far out... Ops, ensembles etc...it's quit insane Exactly what I was thinking, remarkable considering the lack of consistency over past few years. Non Miller B's seem to be picked up earlier and with somewhat higher agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The indies at 96 hours have the 500mb low even more amped and dug in than the OP Some are just absolutely obscene. do they have lots of mixing for LI or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Trying my hardest NOT to weenie here, but I've never seen this much agreement, this far out... Ops, ensembles etc...it's quit insaneIf it still looks like this at 0z it's time for everyone to bite. I'll admit right now, I think my view of this possibly being suppressed is probably wrong, the EPS was pretty incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If it still looks like this at 0z it's time for everyone to bite. I'll admit right now, I think my view of this possibly being suppressed is probably wrong, the EPS was pretty incredible Voila! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If it still looks like this at 0z it's time for everyone to bite. I'll admit right now, I think my view of this possibly being suppressed is probably wrong, the EPS was pretty incredible The high flattens and retreats.. No Way this is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 EPS shows exa My untrained eye sees more like 16-18 in the city on the mean. Snow totals are arbitrary at this point. The mean increased from 8" to 12" this run, so we should just run with that. And even LI sees above 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The mean snowfall on the eps for NYC is a foot yes a foot of snow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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