IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That is my main concern as well.If the STJ becomes stronger in the future runs, then those concerns will be replaced with worries of coastal mixing. Basically the GGEM shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z GGEM is faster and tucked in compared to the GFS. Both are solid hits for all but obviously the GGEM would pose a concern for mixing issues near the coastdoesnt the GGEM run warm??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ukie tucks right in on the delmarva if I'm looking correctly. It tis small on me phone, ha. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Yeh / should occlude then head E . The real JP is just off to our SW . Someone could get some dry air wrapped in for a while as the CCB bombs away . But it in the end it will not matter as the system crawls ENE it will come east and snow itself out . I don`t remember the last time I saw a 700 mb field modeled like that . That 500 mb evolution will go in Kocins next book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I thought your worry was suppression/ots? Smart people don't stick to a forecast when there's new evidence to support a different view. His occlusion too early concern is legit (as was his suppression view at the time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Dryslotting is a high class problem - its the reason you only get a foot, rather than the forecast 18". I'll take that any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That is my main concern as well. Even if it does when the surface heads E you re fire . The JP will be off to the SW . In the end , you are not going to care . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Even if it does when the surface heads E you re fire . The JP will be off to the SW . In the end , you are not going to care . Oh I completely agree. I'd be fine with a major snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS are more conservative at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Though, they still look darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS are more conservative at this range. The majority look to be clustered north and west of mean. Just a few skewing it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Yeh / should occlude then head E . The real JP is just off to our SW . Someone could get some dry air wrapped in for a while as the CCB bombs away . But it in the end it will not matter as the system crawls ENE it will come east and snow itself out . I don`t remember the last time I saw a 700 mb field modeled like that . That 500 mb evolution will go in Kocins next book I haven't seen anything quite like this at the upper levels in the time I've been following weather. It's just.. Well... *edited due to graphic language *Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Southern Rockland, westchester, Manhattan, western LI, NE jersey get pounded per the GGEM.... 20+ everyone else a measly old 14-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va specialThe expiramental para is. Euro, 12z, won't be out for another hour roughly. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va special Euro isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va special 0z para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va special Thats the 00z Parallel 12z OP isn't out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 How bout the euro? Someone in ma forum said its ots with a scraper NC an va specialThat was the Euro Parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That was the Euro Parallel. Thats the 00z Parallel 12z OP isn't out. 0z para Euro isn't out yet. The expiramental para is. Euro, 12z, won't be out for another hour roughly. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 my worry is that this occludes too fast and we get a dryslot Even in this case, we likely receive 6"-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Smart people don't stick to a forecast when there's new evidence to support a different view. His occlusion too early concern is legit (as was his suppression view at the time).I agree with this. Original question posed was intended as more tongue-in-cheek than anything. And yes, we lost the ots signal rather quickly....I expect more changes as storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Instability in the lower levels is insane... T-snow for TEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Instability in the lower levels is insane... T-snow for TEB The structure of the Omega Snow Growth is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro out to 63 More amped, closed off over KS, and better heights out ahead Looks awesome already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WPC seems to favor an inland track right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 More energy at the base, healthier trough, and continues to close off over the SC plains. 72 looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WPC seems to favor an inland track right now: Looks like OTS is no longer an expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Continues to be closed off at hr 81 this is going to be a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ridge out west looks amazing and it closed off much earlier this run so I think we'll see a more NW track this run. Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow. Trough orientation is 10x better than the 00z by 96 hours. Nuetral and should go negative near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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