Zelocita Weather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 My guess for the week.... Models will weaken/shift south later today into late Tomorrow/early Wed. Then come back roughly where they are now. Almost unheard of for all models to lock consistently 4-5 days out without any waiver. Just be prepared for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My guess for the week.... Models will weaken/shift south later today into late Tomorrow/early Wed. Then come back roughly where they are now. Almost unheard of for all models to lock consistently 4-5 days out without any waiver. Just be prepared for it! Hard to tell, models are waffling a lot... Navgem came west and north, really hugs the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 upton should be really cautious after last jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can anyone explain why the GFS snowfall maps have been weird and sporadic around the Long Island area. Look at eastern Long Island. An isolated circle toward the twin folks. I attached a picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 My guess for the week.... Models will weaken/shift south later today into late Tomorrow/early Wed. Then come back roughly where they are now. Almost unheard of for all models to lock consistently 4-5 days out without any waiver. Just be prepared for it! The models have locked in plenty of storms in this range. There is unusual agreement among them right now, which is a favorable sign. I think DC is a lock for at least 6". NYC and Southern NE might be too far north for the big snows with this one. Low needs to close off early, letting it ride up the coast. Hopefully, the arctic energy won't kick it OTS like it did to yesterday's storm. I don't think this will happen though. Even yesterday's storm trended stronger and further north at the last moment. Not enough, obviously, but you can't underestimate the southern stream during a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can anyone explain why the GFS snowfall maps have been weird and sporadic around the Long Island area. Look at eastern Long Island. An isolated circle toward the twin folks. I attached a picture. The far eastern end has a lot of mixing issues on the GFS and flips to plain rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The far eastern end has a lot of mixing issues on the GFS and flips to plain rain for a time. I think it's an error on model shading. Even last years 2 feet plus prediction. Showed the circle. It is like the model can't color the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 At this point a strong storm is likely but adjustments will be made. I actually think the precip amounts are being underestimated slightly for those in the jackpot zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can anyone explain why the GFS snowfall maps have been weird and sporadic around the Long Island area. Look at eastern Long Island. An isolated circle toward the twin folks. I attached a picture. Aside from mixing issues I also believe that the model doesn't handle map features at a very detailed level so it assumes the split at the twin forks is all water which is why you see the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Here is thing: they are hedging bets which is understandble BUT they are contradicting themselves as the official forcast- not discussion sys snow Likely Fri night and saturday 60% thus exactly opposite of the hesitant discussion. They have to adjust, cant have both numbers out there. Actually, I don't think this is an issue of inconsistency. I assume the discussion means they're 30% confident that we see a major snowstorm, as currently advertised by most of the global models, while the 60% number on the point-and-click is the probability of seeing some measurable snow in that time period (not the likelihood of a major snowstorm). I'm sure a NWS person or pro met could confirm if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The lower amounts on far Eastern LI also have something to do with the maturity of the system as time goes on with the stronger dynamics shifting away from the center and more towards the mature CCB feature. In other words, you start to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Aside from mixing issues I also believe that the model doesn't handle map features at a very detailed level so it assumes the split at the twin forks is all water which is why you see the gap. Correct. The maps are notoriously awful on Long Island...i wouldnt read too much into it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/video-late-week-snowstorm-dc-t Everyone should watch this explanation of this threat.. Spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone know what the para is showing?? Big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can anyone explain why the GFS snowfall maps have been weird and sporadic around the Long Island area. Look at eastern Long Island. An isolated circle toward the twin folks. I attached a picture.Resolution. The model has a very tough time resolving Long Island because of how the grid spacing is determined within the model. It treats the Island as part of the ocean. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Anyone know what the para is showing?? 6z GFS para, 983 low southwest of the Benchmark with very heavy snow north and west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is identical, nearly frame by frame so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 983 low southwest of the Benchmark with very heavy snow north and west of NYC Which parallel? GFS or Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Which parallel? GFS or Euro.gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 gfs Thanks, just took a look. Over 2" LE near MMU and right around 1.75" LE for everyone else. I've seen some mention of this but the surface winds should be strong enough to support bilizzard criteria for the NJ coast, NYC and LI. Perhaps even as far inland as Morris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Through day 4 the 12z GFS is less amplified than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 By Friday morning the differences at H5 are negligible. I see no red flags or reasons that would suggest a significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is on par with its 06 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 By Friday morning the differences at H5 are negligible. I see no red flags or reasons that would suggest a significant change.It looks like the ridge is a little bit stronger @ hr 93, but as you said, the differences are small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The Western ridging is even better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Looks to me like it's gonna come in stronger, and a bit slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hour 96 is almost exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 High pressure seems to flatten and retreat a bit better than the 06z so far, allowing this thing to ride right up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GFS is more amplified by Friday evening. This should be closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Woof, 00z Saturday it has two closed off contours at H5. Light snow on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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