Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:16 PM, Eduardo said: Can I ask this: How has each individual model performed so far with respect to the main actors onstage? How have the GFS, EURO, etc. performed with respect to the positioning and strength of each element of the setup as compared to where everything is actually situated now? Could that give us a hint as to how much weight we should give each of their depictions of the ultimate outcome? It would certainly be possible to come up with an algorithm that incorporates a weighted mean score for each of the models in question at certain points over the last 6 days but probably not very useful as a predictor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:20 PM, IsentropicLift said: The precip shield is jumping well North at 09z from it's 12z position. looking gd.might be on to my idea from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 15z SREFS are REALLY wet... Even up north, the ARW has support now from the NMB instead of a complete shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:20 PM, IsentropicLift said: The precip shield is jumping well North at 09z from it's 12z position. Is the High QPF moving north too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 H7, h5 definitely better than 12z. Maybe the NAM scores the coup of the century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Moderate snow up to the city by 06z. Light snow to Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Please let the run finish and keep the board clear until then, thanks. Otherwise posts become buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:20 PM, IsentropicLift said: The precip shield is jumping well North at 09z from it's 12z position. Leading edge perhaps a smidge further north @ 42 vs. 12z 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hr 45 is a big hit from Rockland South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:20 PM, IsentropicLift said: The precip shield is jumping well North at 09z from it's 12z position. The bowling ball itself is quite a bit north from the 12z run, so I'm guessing this will paint the QPF picture that many of us want to see and therefore make everyone even more confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam once again with a big hit here. Heavy snow into the metro hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 700mb center is tucked right into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The core of the mid-level jet is going to rip right over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Heavy snow up to SWF hr 48! Way...way North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NYC under blizzard conditions hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By 18z Saturday the nam has .75+ qpf at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everything is starting to kick east at hr 48 so I think that's about as far North as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Aargh, why can't the Euro show a move like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Confluence not as strong Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard conditions all the way back into E PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The confluence has wavered between strong, and not strong for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I was wrong, ticks even further North at hr 51. LHV getting pounded a long with pretty much everyone here. Philly might dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 how are temps profiles looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Kept waiting for it to kick east and it kept coming north. Everyone from central pa to NYC gets nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It starts to look like it wants to pull East at hr 48 but then stops. Look at these 850mb winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html need anymore proof on how strong this baby will be and the plume of high tops and gulf moisture blasting north/ne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:29 PM, IsentropicLift said: I was wrong, ticks even further North at hr 51. LHV getting pounded a long with pretty much everyone here. Philly might dry slot. Man that's way north of 12z, ripping snow all across the NYC metro and 30-40 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The nam is so far north it dry slots Phl and a good amount of jersey. Best banding in Northern nj ct and lower Hudson valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:27 PM, jm1220 said: Aargh, why can't the Euro show a move like this? The Euro had NYC Metro Blizzard conditions 1right until the end during Juno....not saying the NAM is correct, just saying the Euro is not perfect. Sorry if this is banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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