B Dawk 20 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:13 PM, IsentropicLift said: The heights are about 25-30 miles further Southeast so I would think the main precip shield shifts SE by about that amount from 06z but it's still early. You must have better eyes than me. I have a hard time seeing 25 miles on a model map On 1/21/2016 at 2:19 PM, hazwoper said: It's still showing an open h5 when GFS is not. This will still wind up much further north compared to GFS This is exactly right, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 36 it's not really south at all. A little more in front. A little less in back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 39 hours, the precip shield is not as expansive on the NW side, however the snow is making a quicker entrance than on the 6z, and the low is even slightly NW....maybe model noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 39 it's a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The heavy snow is having a lot more trouble advancing North into MD/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 PM, WintersGrasp said: At 39 hours, the precip shield is not as expansive on the NW side, however the snow is making a quicker entrance than on the 6z, and the low is even slightly NW....maybe model noise On 1/21/2016 at 2:23 PM, Morris said: At 39 it's a little south. Yea, not confusing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 42, the front is the same. Less on the NW shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z NAM at 54 vs 12z NAM at 42... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 45, moderate snow up to Lakewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Moderate snow just up to the city early morning hours on Saturday with not much North of there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mount Holly updated their map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 48 moderate snow up to Staten Island and Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 7 am saturday, cnj getting slammed, moderate snow approaching the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:25 PM, yhbrooklyn said: 00z NAM at 54 vs 12z NAM at 42... output_qWR7rB.gif Looks almost identical to me... correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 51 heavy snow in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Low further nw than 6z at 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Watch the h5 panels all day today on GFS and NAM. If the NAM starts close sooner, game over. If GFS start to close later, game on. It's just that simple in this setup. Confluence is not the main driver. A bowling ball h5 is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z 60 vs 12z 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The actual differences in terms of sensible weather are minute but when a twenty mile shift can mean the difference between 12"+ and nothing it makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sig changes at hr 45 12z from hr 57 00z with re to 500mb, may be enough for a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 54 heavy snow up to Spring Valley. More north than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There's a strong band that runs from about State College in PA to around NYC that slowly lifts Northward in time, but I highly doubt anyone that lives North of Sussex is going to see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z 66 vs 12z 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This run will probably be over a foot for the city, unfortunately not supported by the globals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 57 way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:30 PM, hazwoper said: Watch the h5 panels all day today on GFS and NAM. If the NAM starts close sooner, game over. If GFS start to close later, game on. It's just that simple in this setup. Confluence is not the main driver. A bowling ball h5 is Best post of the day thus far. Thus falls into place then u won't to concerne yourself with Qpf since it will into place. Dynamics, dynamics, dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CCB makes into the city and north before the low occludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 2:31 PM, Dhaulagiri1 said: Sig changes at hr 45 12z from hr 57 00z with re to 500mb, may be enough for a capture. Capture? The surface low is a direct spawn of the ULL. If the ULL was over the lakes and this was a seprate Southern stream shortwave then you would hope for a capture. That's not what's occurring here at at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like the edge of the moderate snows make a bit further North than I thought, to about SWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hour 60 further north on NE side. Heavier snow on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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