Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Almost all models are on board for a significant winter storm to take shape Friday and Saturday. GFS, EURO verbatim is a foot plus for most of the area as the primary dies in the Tennessee valley and a slow moving coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 00z ECMWF EPS PARA looks pretty awesome as well. Mean closes off the low at 500 mb which is pretty impressive... Here's to hoping the trends from overnight continue Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks pretty ideal now, just wonder what is more likely an issue... North/west trend and mixing/rain or out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Mods can you pin this please. Let's have a fun week tracking. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Looks pretty ideal now, just wonder what is more likely an issue... North/west trend and mixing/rain or out to sea... I would rather still be holding on to a more suppressed look being 5 days out still, but that's just me. The fact the NAVGEM is so tight to the coast is odd considering it is usually the most suppressed and progressive. Might not mean a thing but certainly should be watched. That model can often yield clues to what will happen even though not always 100% synoptically accurate. Clues. My expectations are still low with this one given the marginal temps on some guidance. Wont take much to screw us or jackpot us either way. 5 days is an eternity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 This has Arctic air to work with just to its north and the dynamics would be pretty intense verbatim, so I'm not worried about mixing. It's too far for that now. I will say that I do expect some pull back from the guidance today just purely since you almost never see a solution locked In six day out. When it does happen, don't freak out and cancel everything. It's all just part of the dance that is this insane hobby. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally the most credible threat worth tracking.... Would be comical that our first "more than an inch" snowfall is a MECS, fingers crossed boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally the most credible threat worth tracking.... Would be comical that our first "more than an inch" snowfall is a MECS, fingers crossed boys Crazier is some guidance says some areas reach their seasonal snowfall avg in ONE STORM! I could live with that even if it's the only snow event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Crazier is some guidance says some areas reach their seasonal snowfall avg in ONE STORM! I could live with that even if it's the only snow event this winter. Exactly...I get the funny feeling if you don't cash in on this one, you may have missed your only real chance this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 From this point onwards it will be tough for most to keep emotions in check. Many are psyching themselves out '' Will wai ttill Tues, will wait till Wed...has a 20% of verifying''. Understandable but lets also remain scientific, the science here makes sense.A primary fades in TN valley, a slow moving coastal takes over with arctic air to the north, the specifics will change and yes it is reasonable to worry about the Pac Jet but the scenario as mapped out makes physical sense. Personally, I will sit back and enjoy every model run: half the fun of getting the Big Dog is hearing it bark ...ie. the model watching and learning from the discussions that ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 anyone else see the 00z Euro-Para? i'm hearing that it has the biggest hit of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 From this point onwards it will be tough for most to keep emotions in check. Many are psyching themselves out '' Will wai ttill Tues, will wait till Wed...has a 20% of verifying''. Understandable but lets also remain scientific, the science here makes sense.A primary fades in TN valley, a slow moving coastal takes over with arctic air to the north, the specifics will change and yes it is reasonable to worry about the Pac Jet but the scenario as mapped out makes physical sense. Personally, I will sit back and enjoy every model run: half the fun of getting the Big Dog is hearing it bark ...ie. the model watching and learning from the discussions that ensue. The one thing I have noticed regarding the Pac is the low pressure south of Alaska continues to get stronger each run which in turn is helping to pump the ridge out West. Transient or not, we need that feature to remain and not flatten out. Timing is everything as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 anyone else see the 00z Euro-Para? i'm hearing that it has the biggest hit of all.It's one of the largest hits I've seen in a long, long time. Some places get a seasons worth of snow in 24 hours. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's one of the largest hits I've seen in a long, long time. Some places get a seasons worth of snow in 24 hours. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Don't you remember the "blizzard" last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Don't you remember the "blizzard" last year?Take those numbers and spread them out. It's 30-40 in some places. Look at Ryan Maues twitter. Obviously cant post the maps. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Don't you remember the "blizzard" last year?He probably meant in aerial coverage. The last few years have featured some solid storms but the Mid Atlantic has been largely shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The storm potential has certainly piqued my interest, but I am not ready to go all in yet, probably won't be for another couple of days. But its good to have both operational and ensemble support at this stage. Its hard not to get a bit excited especially in an overall snowless winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 While I'd love a feb 83 repeat I'd gladly take a Feb 95 8-12" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 While I'd love a feb 83 repeat I'd gladly take a Feb 95 8-12" storm I'd be happy with a 1-4" front end thump at this point this winter. Anything more would just be a bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Don't you remember the "blizzard" last year? Yup, sure do That's just a great example to NOT take model output exactly verbatim. Especially this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'd be happy with a 1-4" front end thump at this point this winter. Anything more would just be a bonus!Im hoping for a half inch later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Finally the most credible threat worth tracking.... Would be comical that our first "more than an inch" snowfall is a MECS, fingers crossed boys Saw that in Feb 95, an 11 incher the only one of the season, still a major storm and as big as most storms you'll usually get around here. Don't mind one decent one had a lot of years like that too. Better than the snowless ones. But tell me, why is everyone so much more positive about this one? Seems we have had the rug pulled out from us a lot. What is different here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Saw that in Feb 95, an 11 incher the only one of the season, still a major storm and as big as most storms you'll usually get around here. Don't mind one decent one had a lot of years like that too. Better than the snowless ones. But tell me, why is everyone so much more positive about this one? Seems we have had the rug pulled out from us a lot. What is different here?I think this is the closest we've come this year. We're nearing five days out. Plus there's good model agreement, I think.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS has light to moderate snows for 24 hours, not the super amped storm it showed before but it's nice to still see the pattern slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Canadian is another monster storm (Duh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan9 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 anyone else see the 00z Euro-Para? i'm hearing that it has the biggest hit of all. yes long island euro para had like 27 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Three runs--- three step downs...... verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Most of the models move snow into the area by 12z Friday. 4-5 days away. Def the most the legit thread we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 That 12z GFS really shafts us up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Three runs three step downs...... And on the other hand, if you posted the Euro parallel, 3 runs three steps up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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