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A Met Storm Threat Level Consensus Meter


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As a regular reader of this forum I've grown tired of the back and forth bickering and the infinite minutia of data spewed out by mets and amateurs. At times, it's entertaining, at others, it's annoying. :rolleyes: I've been here long enough to be able to cut through some of the nonsense and figure out what's going on. Unfortunately, it takes many pages of, "Wow" and "This model is crap." and "you're an idiot." to get there. So, here's my idea. How about a survey by mets only that is updated based on the latest runs on how confident they are about the upcoming event happening? That way, we can get an idea of the consensus without having to read the details. And then when we have time, we can wade through all the pages to see WHY their confidence is one way or the other. In order for the survey to be valid, a minimum of 5 or so mets have to participate. Don't get me wrong. Details are good. But this would give us a nice picture of what all the mets are thinking after each model run.

Low Confidence: Number of mets that think the event has a 0-33% chance of happening as recently modeled.

Medium Confidence: Number of mets that think the event has a 34-66% chance of happening as recently modeled.

High Confidence: Number of mets that think the event has a 67-100% chance of happening as recently modeled.

There can be more choices and the more mets that participate, the better the sampling and the better the data.

An example title could be, "12z Confidence Poll" and it would be locked after the 18z models start coming out. Then the next poll would be the "18z Confidence Poll". How about it huh? :)

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