TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Here is your 3pm update posted at 5:23PM from BOX: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...300 PM UPDATE...* ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT INTO MON AM COMMUTE* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN HALF OF SNELIGHT SNOW WAS WORKING ITS WAY UP COAST IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVELSHORT WAVE. MOST OF LEADING EDGE IS ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHINGGROUND ACROSS NYC METRO AREA. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE GOOD HANDLE ONTHIS AREA OF SNOW...BRINGING IT TO S COAST AROUND 5 OR 6 PM. ITSHOULD START AS LIGHT RAIN ON NANTUCKET AND PARTS OF CAPE COD DUETO MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT EVEN THERE WILL CHANGE TOSNOW EARLY TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVELS COOL.SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD INTO REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFOREMIDNIGHT...BUT STEADIER SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL MA/NE CTINTO EASTERN MA WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST FRONTOGENESIS...LOW LEVELCONVERGENCE AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH NORLUNTROUGH. WHERE EXACTLY IN THIS REGION HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP ISSTILL UNKNOWN...BUT CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES MODELS AND 12ZGFS/ECMWF/RGEM SUGGEST BANDING GETTING NEAR I-495 FOR A TIMEBEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWMODEST LIFT IN SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN E MA.AT SAME TIME WE ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS NEARBERKSHIRES DUE TO ARCTIC FRONT. THIS COULD BRING QUICK COATING TOAN INCH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.WE STILL THINK NE MA IS FAVORED FOR HIGHER TOTALS /2-4"/ BUTONSHORE FLOW COULD END UP GIVING COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND UPPERCAPE SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ONISLANDS AND OUTER CAPE BUT MILDER SURFACE TEMPS WILL PREVENT MORETHAN AN INCH OR SO.WE SHOULD NOTE SYSTEM IS OVER PERFORMING TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS MIDATLANTIC WHERE WE HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF 2" ACROSS DE/NJ. IF WE WERETO TALK ABOUT WORST CASE SCENARIO...IT WOULD BE FOR AS MUCH AS5-7" WHICH IS REFLECTED IN OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS ONWINTER WEATHER WEB PAGE.WE ARE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN MA INCLUDINGCAPE COD BUT WILL ALSO EXTEND BACK INTO CENTRAL MA...RI AND NE CTDUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO FAVORED BANDING AREAS...AND FACTTHIS WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON MON MORNING COMMUTE.KEEP IN MIND MODELS CAN STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS WITH NORLUN TROUGHSAND LOCATIONS OF QPF AXIS CAN BE OFF. IT IS USUALLY NOT UNTIL WESEE BANDS FORM ON RADAR THAT WE KNOW EXACTLY WHICH AREAS THEY WILLAFFECT. HOWEVER INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR MODERATE /2-4"/ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Non Norlun related ,excellent radar presentation headed for TAN SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Heaving coating on everything. Coming down light to moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Everything covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 IT IS USUALLY NOT UNTIL WESEE BANDS FORM ON RADAR THAT WE KNOW EXACTLY WHICH AREAS THEY WILLAFFECT. Going to be tough tonight then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BOX has upped its snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just took a walk. Nice light to occasional moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not one single flake on this side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just started in Somerville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Coming down pretty good right now. Roads getting slick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just crossed into the northern boundary of flakes on route 1 in Saugus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Radar looks pretty good. Couple of inches looks good even without Norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Radar looks pretty good. Couple of inches looks good even without Norlun Somewhere near or just NW of the canal may try for advisory without the inverted trough...but that extra boost from IVT will definitely be needed most places for advisory amounts. A lot of disagreement on short term guidance on what happens overnight...latest RPM shows the IVT snows pretty weak and transient, so not much, but RAP is hammering E MA pretty hard....HRRR is decent too, though maybe not quite as bullish as RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Light snow in Brighton, MA (at work) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Steady light snow on the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Snow growth looks really good out there. Around 1/2" or just under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Light snow started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Visibility down to 1mi at TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BOX calling for 2-3" here? Color me eeyore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 BOX calling for 2-3" here? Color me eeyoreconvergence zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 convergence zone I could see that out near Ray down to Foxboro or something. Glad you are getting some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nothing too exciting here in Brookline. Going to go out to dinner in a bit for the sake of having an excuse to walk out in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I could see that out near Ray down to Foxboro or something. Glad you are getting some and she is in GA,da dum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nothing here yet, on radar looks like snow to my west, north, east and south, I'm in a hole at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Over half inch here in Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Where's James? Bed? Nothing here yet. 26.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Steady light snow on the Tobin.no jumpers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Visibility down to 1mi at TAN What a time for BOX RAD to be down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 What a time for BOX RAD to be down yeah, unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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