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January 17-18th Cape Scrape and Inverted Trough


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Those old T levels represent about T1=BL and T5=H8. We use TTs a lot now for instability wrt these WINDEX type events...usually >40. Of course very little of the TT layer falls within T1-T5 seeing that it's H85-H5, but TTs represent the mid-level instability better.

check out the convergence fields, thats a sweet look Scott to you
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Radar looks pretty impressive. Was this modeled to dump moderate snow as far north as its showing?

my wife is driving to Georgia to rescue some pups scheduled for death to bring up to.people who are adopting them, she ran into non accumulating snow.outside DC. Lol I told her last night she would, she said nothing was on the radio saying that but she knows who to trust.
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my wife is driving to Georgia to rescue some pups scheduled for death to bring up to.people who are adopting them, she ran into non accumulating snow.outside DC. Lol I told her last night she would, she said nothing was on the radio saying that but she knows who to trust.

I'll give a +1 for the rescue mission. Good stuff, and I'm not even a dog lover ☺☺

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Looks like NWS is considering an advisory for later today.

 

STILL WORKING ON DETAILS FOR TONIGHT/MON. EARLY THINKING IS WE

WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS STRONGER LIFT WITH
NORLUN TROUGH THAN 12Z NAM...AND HAS SUPPORT FROM CONSENSUS OF
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING WHAT WE CAN SEE SO FAR FROM HIGH-RES
/WHICH IS JUST GETTING INTO WINDOW OF THIS EVENT/. THAT WOULD GIVE
MORE OF AREA AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS WORCESTER HILLS WHERE THERE IS
DECENT UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE. CONSIDERING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR AT LEAST COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT WILL MAKE FINAL CALL BY 4 PM.
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Euro looked real good for you...gets 0.3-0.4" into BOS area.  I've got all of Cape Cod over half inch QPF.

 

Yeah we'll see. It wasn't totally inv trough like either which makes it more widespread. I think even ORH county and into CT may get a good 1-2 perhaps if the RAP is right.

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