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January 17th, 2016 Wintry Event OBS


superjames1992

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Let's not make up the radar and snow bands guys. No ground truth or site obs showing snow and you can't just assume snow over rain just because temps are in the upper 30s and low 40s. Please correct me if I am wrong because I have been looking.

 

Also here is the AFD from Alabama. 

 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
904 PM CST Sat Jan 16 2016

Update...
evening update.

&&

Discussion...

Looking over the latest trends on satellite...radar and short term
guidance...precipitation chances appear to be too high. Some weak
middle level frontogentical forcing is trying to form a band of light
rain over the central part of the state back into southern
Mississippi but it is going to have a hard time overcoming the
dry air in place here. This forcing will quickly shift off to the
southeast where the best rain chances will be. Will watch the
radar trends over the next hour but aside from the band of light
rain...not expecting much across the north and expecting to lower
probability of precipitation in that area with likely probability of precipitation remaining in the southeast.
Also plan to remove the snow wording. 

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Was at 36/34 an hour ago, but sky is all clouded over now and temp rise has already begun - now at 37/35. Temps always rise when the clouds come in, I could see me getting back in the low 40s. Dewpoints are killing us as we can't wetbulb down far enough. Only way for the upstate to see any snow is if this thing really over-performs with rates and puts it down fast enough to bring down the cold - don't think that's gonna happen with this one. I think the upstate just doesn't have the cold; as usual! Have fun WNC!

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There's a reason I titled this thread "Wintry Event" rather than "Winter Storm," ha.

 

39/30, OV.  I think we'll be okay on temperatures, but the short-range modeling is not looking too hot on precip.  Looks like we could get split here.

haha gotcha, I shouldn't use such strong language like that! Storm what was I thinking???? 

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James I was thinking the same thing. Just looked over modeling and the trend isn't our friend. Be honest right now I'll be suprised if mby sees anything. 6 hours ago wouldn't have said that. Precip is gonna stay to consolidated with sfc lp. Not a window of opportunity to get the moisture in here long enough if even at all. Maybe it will look different at sunrise. Time to go chase the mid and late week threats anyway.

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Anyone know what the Euro shows for hours 18 through 24? They are missing on Wundergroup. The 27 hour map shows snow NE of the Triangle, but there could as easily be some further west before that.

 

Instead of trying to explain it, here's a small snippet of hr 18.

 

t3WzANa.png

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41/34 Cloudy with a steady N wind. The winds have been from either the NW or N since late Sat. afternoon. Radar is looking decent for whatever comes this way. At the very least I hope we can get some sleet mixed in with the rain that way I don't feel completely shut out. :lol:

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ffc&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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James I was thinking the same thing. Just looked over modeling and the trend isn't our friend. Be honest right now I'll be suprised if mby sees anything. 6 hours ago wouldn't have said that. Precip is gonna stay to consolidated with sfc lp. Not a window of opportunity to get the moisture in here long enough if even at all. Maybe it will look different at sunrise. Time to go chase the mid and late week threats anyway.

 

Looks like the 05z HRRR tries to close the gap.  Guess we'll just have to see in the morning.  It's going to be a crapshoot.

 

Anyways, 38/29, OV. EDIT: As of 1 AM.

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