ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wxsim (www.wxsim.com) is a point specific personal forecasting tool that uses a mix of the GFS and NAM models along with a built in advection routine starting with home weather station readings to produce a local - in my backyard forecast My Wxsim program forecast run (for NW Chester County PA) at 2pm on January 16th, 2016 - snow arriving on Friday the 22nd by 7pm with a temp of 34.6 - S+ at 10pm temp 31.1 - S+ at 7am Saturday 23rd with 6.0" of snow so far - S+ at 1pm Saturday with 12.0" of snow Storm ends by 3pm with a storm total of 13.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Wxsim (www.wxsim.com) is a point specific personal forecasting tool that uses a mix of the GFS and NAM models along with a built in advection routine starting with home weather station readings to produce a local - in my backyard forecast My Wxsim program forecast run (for NW Chester County PA) at 2pm on January 16th, 2016 - snow arriving on Friday the 22nd by 7pm with a temp of 34.6 - S+ at 10pm temp 31.1 - S+ at 7am Saturday 23rd with 6.0" of snow so far - S+ at 1pm Saturday with 12.0" of snow Storm ends by 3pm with a storm total of 13.0" I would think looking at what you posted here and those models Media Pa in Delaware County is probably3-6" or just south of 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Well.... at least it's fun to read!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 With the 18z GFS/NAM (sad this program cannot include the king of models - the EURO) so take this with the proverbial grain of salt this far out but.... Snow still arrives by 7pm on Friday the 22nd 3" of snow by midnight and then a change to IP/ZR with another 0.80" then back to snow by early AM and another 11" of snow so a combined 11" to 13" of snow to ice back to snow before ending. Over 2.10" of liquid equivalent This will clearly change significantly over the next few days but just shows the variability of the fab US models on a day to day basis - until the EURO shows something - I will never buy what the US models portray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco for today gets 0.3" of snow into Chesco regarding the Friday potential event it now has snow arriving earlier on Friday AM 10am = S+ Temp 24.4 4pm = S+ 27.0 with 10" of snow so far 8pm = Mod snow with 12" of snow Tapering off in the wee hours of Sat AM with 13" total snow accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 18z Wxsim forecast with NAM/GFS still paints about 1 foot of snow for NW Chesco - a little later start this run with moderate snow by 4pm Friday and all over by 1pm Saturday with about 12" of total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z data of course ramps this up to HECS levels here is the run down for NW Chester County PA Snow by mid afternoon on Friday 4pm = S+ temp 27.3 10pm - S+ temp 24.2 snow so far 10.5" 1am - S+ temp 24.6 snow = 16.5" 4am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 20.0" 7am - S+ temp 25.0 snow = 24.0" 11am - S temp 25.7 snow = 28.0" Light snow most of the rest of the PM ending by evening total snow accumulation 29.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Forecast Text output from Wxsim for NW Chesco with 12z data - total snow forecast is now up to 31.7" Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 24. Wind chill ranging from 10 to 23. Wind east-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming 19 mph, gusting to 30 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 3 inches. Snow accumulation 20 inches or more. Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow very likely. High 28. Wind chill around 13. Wind northeast around 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 All hail the Wxsim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Forecast Text output from Wxsim for NW Chesco with 12z data - total snow forecast is now up to 31.7" Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 24. Wind chill ranging from 10 to 23. Wind east-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming 19 mph, gusting to 30 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 3 inches. Snow accumulation 20 inches or more. Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow very likely. High 28. Wind chill around 13. Wind northeast around 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. I am just south of you below the Turnpike. Crush city my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I am just south of you below the Turnpike. Crush city my friend! Forecast Text output from Wxsim for NW Chesco with 12z data - total snow forecast is now up to 31.7" Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 34. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely. Low 24. Wind chill ranging from 10 to 23. Wind east-northeast around 13 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming 19 mph, gusting to 30 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 2 and 3 inches. Snow accumulation 20 inches or more. Saturday: Dense overcast. Snow very likely. High 28. Wind chill around 13. Wind northeast around 17 mph, gusting to 28 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Where can I find this for Allentown, PA? Thanks in advance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 With 6z runs the Wxsim has snow starting by 1pm on Friday with S+ by 4pm - temps in the mid-20's for the duration of the storm. Total snow by 8am Saturday at 20" total by the time it winds down by 8pm is 28.2" for NW Chesco (10:1 ratio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 With 6z runs the Wxsim has snow starting by 1pm on Friday with S+ by 4pm - temps in the mid-20's for the duration of the storm. Total snow by 8am Saturday at 20" total by the time it winds down by 8pm is 28.2" for NW Chesco (10:1 ratio) Is it able to see what comes from the second coastal on the 28th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Wxsim with 12z models now down to a scant 20" of snow for NW Chesco - arrival time now at 4pm Friday with it tapering off late Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z Wxsim for NW Chester County Snow arriving by 10pm Friday temp 29.8 S+ at 4am with 4" snow so far S+ 10am = 12.5 Mod snow 4pm = 21.7" 1am Mod snow = 22.8" Ending by 2am total snow 23.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ^That's pretty much ideal...add some wind...perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How much does a wxsim cost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cost wise I don't remember - but relatively not very much - once you buy it which I did about 5 years ago the developer gives you all upgrades (and there have been many for free) If interested see what they are charging....it's a very cool tool and worth it IMHO Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z data brings the snow total down to a little 16" event in NW Chesco (tongue firmly in cheek)....starts by 10pm and over by early Sunday AM....experience shows it will likely end earlier than that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z data for East Nantmeal Twp in NW Chester County Snow arriving Friday evening 9pm 7am S+ 4" so far shows some IP mixing in during the mid morning 1pm S+ 12" 5pm S+ 21" 10pm S 25" 2am ending - total accumulation 27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Chesco I am anixous to see how that pans out for this storm since all models have not waffled too much in the last 5-6 days. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hi Lady Di It will continue to waffle - I highly doubt reality will be close to that last Wxsim forecast....it's a shame it does not include the EURO input....still think we see a significant snow approaching 10" but am not buying into 20" type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 18z data for NW Chester County PA - not surprisingly has yielded the greatest snow prediction I have ever had with the program going back 7 years Here is the rundown Snow starts at 9pm 7am Saturday S+ 7.5" 1pm S+ = 17" 4pm S+ = 26" 7pm S+ - 31.4" 12mid - S+ 33.6" ending by 1am storm total 34.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chesco Snow flurries by 7pm Moderate snow by 10pm temp 28.7 S+ by 1am (2.5" so far) 7am - S+ (9.7") 1pm - S+ (17.0") 5pm S+ (21.3") 10pm S (23.1") Ending by 2am total snow 23.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 With the 12z data for NW Chesco - it now has it starting around 5pm with moderate snow by 7pm and continuing till 1am Sunday morning with 34.4" of snow with 3.16" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 With the 12z data for NW Chesco - it now has it starting around 5pm with moderate snow by 7pm and continuing till 1am Sunday morning with 34.4" of snow with 3.16" liquid So far so good, moderate snow here @ 7:04, 0.2" accum just down the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Wxsim did a good job with this one....thanks to the GFS being so steady and the NAM finding a clue with this one. Don' t think this will be our last big event this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 time to start looking at next threat, showing anything for thurs night Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nothing at all.....yet but still time to adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Wxsim with 12z data has snow arriving on Monday morning around noon lasting till about 11pm on Tuesday with about 6" of snow falling during that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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