40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interesting relationship to the top 3. El nino. Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I report back tonight when I have my records in front of me.....I actually think Feb '69 is my # 1 still. can you see my posts, scroll up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 ORH has actually had 3 consecutive Februarys with >40" of snowfall....only time in the record that has been done. 2013: 44.4" 2014: 41.5" 2015: 53.4" Guess we're due for a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 can you see my posts, scroll up Oh, ok. I'll have a slightly diff # for last Feb, but should be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 ORH has actually had 3 consecutive Februarys with >40" of snowfall....only time in the record that has been done. 2013: 44.4" 2014: 41.5" 2015: 53.4" Guess we're due for a ratter. Nah. This is a dynasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Nah. This is a dynasty. Honestly. We have had el nino conditions 3 of the past 4 seasons, including this one...so it stands to reason we have had a Feb dynasty running. (I know '12-'13 was warm neutral) Back in '07-'08 and '08-'09 we had a bit of a la nina-December dynasty going, which actually followed through into the 12/'10 el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 El nino. Climo. Conversely, top 3 Decembers. Hmmm. 2008 31.5" 1970 31.1" 2007 24.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Conversely, top 3 Decembers. Hmmm. 2008 31.5" 1970 31.1" 2007 24.5" La nina Climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 La nina Climo. Yep. Granted I know sample size is small....but man...comes right out at ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yep. Granted I know sample size is small....but man...comes right out at ya. Aside from the warm-neutral March 2013, we are kind of due for warm ENSO March. March 2007 was ok, but not really prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Congrats Isotherm! Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 29m29 minutes ago The stratosphere to light on fire! (Not really) but HUGE displacement event likely in the medium range forecast. 7 retweets8 likes Reply Retweet 7 Like 8 More WXRISK.COM @WXRISKCOM 25m25 minutes ago @MJVentrice judah cohen for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Wish it were a split, but better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 You can get displacements more often than splitting I think. It's not too uncommon. Of course, displacements mean little unless forcing in the troposphere cooperates. Seems like a MJO event should move out of maritime continent towards dateline as we head through later Feb. A good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Judah Cohen ftw Scooter is gonna lose it lol....just rip his shirt off like the Hulk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Judah Cohen ftw Scooter is gonna lose it lol....just rip his shirt off like the Hulk Judah lives not far from Scooter. Eventually they'll meet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I might even send him a link to this forum. Maybe let him know that other professionals in the field like to rip him a new one on a daily basis here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm glad Dave can isolate this back to snowfall 4 months ago over part of Russia.This also needs to stay and not be a flash in the pan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 You can get displacements more often than splitting I think. It's not too uncommon. Of course, displacements mean little unless forcing in the troposphere cooperates. Seems like a MJO event should move out of maritime continent towards dateline as we head through later Feb. A good thing. Are phases 5 and 6 more favorable in February than in Dec-Jan? Because the 3 month composite isn't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 I'm glad Dave can isolate this back to snowfall 4 months ago over part of Russia.This also needs to stay and not be a flash in the pan. Here we go...the top few buttons have popped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Are phases 5 and 6 more favorable in February than in Dec-Jan? Because the 3 month composite isn't pretty. As we head towards the dateline, the forcing usually causes more -EPO and +PNA ridging. So as you transition east, it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 As we head towards the dateline, the forcing usually causes more -EPO and +PNA ridging. So as you transition east, it gets better.OK thanks. I saw this and was a bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Perhaps the precise causation has not been established, but to argue that there is not some sort of connection is absurd in my mind. I think that the many of the relationships in meteorology are like that in that it is difficult to prove the exact causation; however some sort of linkage can be established via correlations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interestingly, the FMA composite is much less torchy than the JFM for phases 5 and 6. It would be nice to see individual months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interestingly, the FMA composite is much less torchy than the JFM for phases 5 and 6. It would be nice to see individual months. Probably has something to do with the wave lengths starting to shorten again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 ORH has actually had 3 consecutive Februarys with >40" of snowfall....only time in the record that has been done. 2013: 44.4" 2014: 41.5" 2015: 53.4" Guess we're due for a ratter. Weenie deflated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 You can't use 3 months composites, and you have to figure in Amplitude and background state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This is better. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interestingly, the FMA composite is much less torchy than the JFM for phases 5 and 6. It would be nice to see individual months. Are you a member of AMWX forums, its an awesome place http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Perhaps the precise causation has not been established, but to argue that there is not some sort of connection is absurd in my mind. I think that the many of the relationships in meteorology are like that in that it is difficult to prove the exact causation; however some sort of linkage can be established via correlations. Never said that. I think there are a lot of relationships going on. Current -AO hangover from Big Iceland low. -AO tendency as GOAK trough retros etc. Just seems tough to isolate a warming event (not SSW) to Siberian snow in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 This is better. http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ Are you a member of AMWX forums, its an awesome place http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Thank you. Didn't even know the Amwx section existed. Phase 5 doesn't look great, phase 6 looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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