40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 If the second window is continuous with the first window, isn't that just one really large window? Technically, you are right.....but I wasn't even thinking of that. My logic was two separate calendar months. I liked the last week of January more as an Archamabault signal......the Feb time range was heavily nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ironically, if the mid atl scores another blizzard, then my snowfall outlook down there will bust low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Oh just looked at the whole EPS run, 4 wave patterns are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 50's Sun-Tuesday and 60ish Wed ahead of the front. Euro op didn't seem keen on the storm after the 6th post day 10 ENS still look good past the 4th for cold,, but what about storm chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 50's Sun-Tuesday and 60ish Wed ahead of the front. Euro op didn't seem keen on the storm after the 6th post day 10 ENS still look good past the 4th for cold,, but what about storm chances? What about them? Can't answer this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 What about them? Can't answer this early. Are signals there for 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Are signals there for 8th? 8-9. Could be anything from overhead to offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 What are temps looking like post-rainer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 What are temps looking like post-rainer? Well the pattern supports BN, but verbatim the 11-15 day is slight AN on the ensembles. It just depends on storm track really. IMO, a slight AN pattern might suggest more of a closer storm track vs offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Well the pattern supports BN, but verbatim the 11-15 day is slight AN on the ensembles. It just depends on storm track really. IMO, a slight AN pattern might suggest more of a closer storm track vs offshore. Okay. Heard word of arctic cold, but maybe that's just for the MW? As long as it feels like winter, I'm good. Weenie-talk here, but I am hoping to squeeze as much juice out of February as we possibly can. Snow or no snow, just serviceable cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 The end of the EC ensembles have a weak ridge into Greenland. Basically it serves to pin the vortex in Canada. It would supply colder air into the US and also, have the chance of throwing down s/w's into the CONUS. To me, that trough configuration with axis near the Great Lakes and + height anomalies SE of Newfoundland suggest a storm track closer to EC vs offshore. Of course this is based on current modeling....but that's how it looks to me. Certainly would be better for folks further west and north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Okay. Heard word of arctic cold, but maybe that's just for the MW? As long as it feels like winter, I'm good. Weenie-talk here, but I am hoping to squeeze as much juice out of February as we possibly can. Snow or no snow, just serviceable cold. Yeah I'm sure you did...lol. The GFS op has had shots of bitter cold on the op runs which could happen given the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Yeah I'm sure you did...lol. The GFS op has had shots of bitter cold on the op runs which could happen given the ridge out west. Ha. Yeah. We'll see. Thank goodness there's a light at the end of the warm-and-rainy tunnel approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Euro ensemble long wave pattern would be hard to believe for AN temps here in 11-15 unless we got a cutter to skew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Euro ensemble long wave pattern would be hard to believe for AN temps here in 11-15 unless we got a cutter to skew it. I think the track closer to the coast is doing it. I agree...I would argue BN, but just stating the output. So my gut leans BN, but the models are a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I think the track closer to the coast is doing it. I agree...I would argue BN, but just stating the output. So my gut leans BN, but the models are a bit warmer. Today was not as nice as yesterday, seems trough is overhead but its a long ways off. Teleconnections are jumping around too. looks active though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Today was not as nice as yesterday, seems trough is overhead but its a long ways off. Teleconnections are jumping around too. looks active though Honestly, who cares about cold. I would rather active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Honestly, who cares about cold. I would rather active. exactly, but it does look cold enough. interesting jet config, did Nino decouple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Having long wave trough almost overhead would be similar to last year's pattern in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Today was not as nice as yesterday, seems trough is overhead but its a long ways off. Teleconnections are jumping around too. looks active though I would not be surprised at all to see a historic February. Not in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I would not be surprised at all to see a historic February. Not in the least. From your mouth to Ma Nature's ears. We need a historic February. Let's make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 A Historice Feb would be great...certainly would not think that will happen though. When was the last time we had Historic Feb's back to back? If it's above normal snowfall wise...that's good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 I would not be surprised at all to see a historic February. Not in the least. Is that historic even taking your last February into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is that historic even taking your last February into account? His top 5 Febs from the reading coop 1969 64.2 2015 55.7 1983 37.3 1972 35.7 1962 34.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is that historic even taking your last February into account? yours BTV 2011 43.1 2008 42.3 1958 34.3 1993 33.8 2007 32.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Mine 2015 52.2 1978 36.4 2003 33.0 2013 32.0 2014 30.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Feb can be good to the coast. Hingham 2015 69.7 1969 42.7 2003 41.2 1994 34.0 2013 31.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Interesting relationship to the top 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Is that historic even taking your last February into account? I report back tonight when I have my records in front of me.....I actually think Feb '69 is my # 1 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.