February Pattern Disco

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not buying into the "it looks nice after such and such date". People were saying that end of Dec about how mid-jan was going to turn around. It would be nice if it happens, but in this winter, I'm not falling for it.

That was a nice pattern we had in mid January through last weekend. We didn't get a lot of snow but sometimes that is the luck of the draw. I'd take my hacks with that type of pattern again any day and more often than not we'd probably come out of it with a really nice event or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Patience grasshoppers we got intercepted to start off the second half after a nice drive with a field goal. Offense is gearing up after a kick off return for a touchdown. We put up a big second half with all cylinders clicking. Carolina type.

You know my stance, but I would be lying if I didn't profess to being a bit frustrated.

 

I can easily see another 50" at my place on the year, though...maybe more for Kev because some will hug.

[Lava Rock]

That was a nice pattern we had in mid January through last weekend. We didn't get a lot of snow but sometimes that is the luck of the draw. I'd take my hacks with that type of pattern again any day and more often than not we'd probably come out of it with a really nice event or two.

I suppose, but we had little snow and what cold we had was hardly arctic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I favor interior NE the rest of the way, but that isn't to say that the coast won't get their share....esp. if the strat cooperates.

[Damage In Tolland]

You know my stance, but I would be lying if I didn't profess to being a bit frustrated.

I can easily see another 50" at my place on the year, though...maybe more for Kev because some will hug.

Hugs mean we both rain with those SST's. Do not want

[ORH_wxman]

Hugs mean we both rain with those SST's. Do not want

 

No it doesn't. It's all about the mid-levels.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No it doesn't. It's all about the mid-levels.

Beat me.

Thanks.

[Damage In Tolland]

No it doesn't. It's all about the mid-levels.

Ok.. Then what type of storm offers better chance of rain? A storm near 40/70 with cold high north or a coastal hugger ?

[ORH_wxman]

Ok.. Then what type of storm offers better chance of rain? A storm near 40/70 with cold high north or a coastal hugger ?

 

That's not what the argument was...you said a hugger means rain. I said it depends on the mid-levels. It may or may not rain on a hugger...it's all about the mid-levels...I'm not looking at SST anomalies to decide if it snows or not over the interior.

 

Obviously an arctic high with a benchmark track is snow...but that's a strawman argument...has nothing to do with whether a hugger or not has to mean rain.

[Ginx snewx]

Hugs mean we both rain with those SST's. Do not want

warmer last year same date on our coast, warmer this year Gulf stream which is good

[Ginx snewx]

up close comparison

[Typhoon Tip]

GEFs-based thermal layout in the 1, 2, 5, 10, 30, 50, 70, 100 hPa sigmas over the poles strongly suggests a SSW mere days from materializing. 

 

I have demo'ed this going all the way back to Eastern, 2004/2005, but what the heck... I have illustrated this ...   Just follow these these words while utilizing this product, 

 

 

found at this site:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

 

What the annotations are intended to convey in simple terms is that these highest elevations, given in pressure coordinates in that product (those ebing 1...2, 5 hPa) show limited to no significant anomalies at the time of most recent initialization (00z 27 JAN) in the temperature layouts.  However, as we push ahead in time, FIRST appearing at these very highest altitudes, is sudden onset of very warm node (that being 72 hours as indicated).   As we push out toward D7 ... D10, we see these highest altitudes begin to cool; but with nearly same rapidity/panache, the layers just beneath (10...30...50 hPa), are modeled to extreme with sudden onsetting warm anomalies.  That is likely because:

 

SSW's typically do materialize at the very highest altitudes of the polar domain.  They then propagate downward out in time, slightly weakening as they go; the plume eventually interacts with the tropopausal depths; at which time the ensuing correlation with -AO takes place. What we are likely seeing in the current GEFs -derived product is the emergence of an SSW that then begins its first week of the down-welling(propagating) behavior. 

 

Note: there has been recent -AO, but that can be rooted back to a huge jolt/planetary wave decay that invaded the polar domain in the middle and high latitude troposphere from over a month ago.  Quite the bell wrung, ...taking the time to completely diminish.  That should not be mistaken with SSW phenomenon as discussed presently. 

 

Propagation typically take 20 days (give or take) prior to AO response, as shown further below. Should this earliest indication verify, we'd be likely looking at a more top->down forcing event by the earliest, mid February, and probably more in earnest in the last 10 days of the month.

 

[googmoog]

GEFs-based thermal layout in the 1, 2, 5, 10, 30, 50, 70, 100 hPa sigmas over the poles strongly suggests a SSW mere days from materializing. 

 

I have demo'ed this going all the way back to Eastern, 2004/2005, but what the heck... I have illustrated this ...   Just follow these these words while utilizing this product, 

 

SSW.jpg

 

found at this site:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

 

What the annotations are intended to convey in simple terms is that these highest elevations, given in pressure coordinates in that product (those ebing 1...2, 5 hPa) show limited to no significant anomalies at the time of most recent initialization (00z 27 JAN) in the temperature layouts.  However, as we push ahead in time, FIRST appearing at these very highest altitudes, is sudden onset of very warm node (that being 72 hours as indicated).   As we push out toward D7 ... D10, we see these highest altitudes begin to cool; but with nearly same rapidity/panache, the layers just beneath (10...30...50 hPa), are modeled to extreme with sudden onsetting warm anomalies.  That is likely because:

 

SSW's typically do materialize at the very highest altitudes of the polar domain.  They then propagate downward out in time, slightly weakening as they go; the plume eventually interacts with the tropopausal depths; at which time the ensuing correlation with -AO takes place. What we are likely seeing in the current GEFs -derived product is the emergence of an SSW that then begins its first week of the down-welling(propagating) behavior. 

 

Note: there has been recent -AO, but that can be rooted back to a huge jolt/planetary wave decay that invaded the polar domain in the middle and high latitude troposphere from over a month ago.  Quite the bell wrung, ...taking the time to completely diminish.  That should not be mistaken with SSW phenomenon as discussed presently. 

 

Propagation typically take 20 days (give or take) prior to AO response, as shown further below. Should this earliest indication verify, we'd be likely looking at a more top->down forcing event by the earliest, mid February, and probably more in earnest in the last 10 days of the month.

 

SSW1.jpg

For the noobs (me), what's this translate to for practical weather? 

[googmoog]

Also I hear chatter of a brief cold blast in Feb only to be sandwiched by more warmth? Dafuq? 

[JC-CT]

Propagation typically take 20 days (give or take) prior to AO response, as shown further below. Should this earliest indication verify, we'd be likely looking at a more top->down forcing event by the earliest, mid February, and probably more in earnest in the last 10 days of the month.

 

Enjoy the cool spring

[OceanStWx]

warmer last year same date on our coast, warmer this year Gulf stream which is good

 

I explained this same thing to him a few days ago, to no avail.

 

Like Will said, if the mid levels cooperate does it really matter if the Gloucester buoy is +2C anomaly? It's not like we're talking Florida coast bath water.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Enjoy the cool spring

That is a full month before spring, which is an eternity to accumulate snow.

[JC-CT]

That is a full month before spring, which is an eternity to accumulate snow.

 

Not meteorological spring. But yeah, it can snow in March when nobody really wants it anymore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Not meteorological spring. But yeah, it can snow in March when nobody really wants it anymore.

Personal bias at play...which is fine.

 

I happen to believe that the first half of March is one of our more climo favored times for huge systems....I mean, it won't last 2 months, but most would still take.

 

In fact, that was one of my 3 favored windows.....1/1 thus far.

[JC-CT]

Personal bias at play...which is fine.

 

I happen to believe that the first half of March is one of our more climo favored times for huge systems....I mean, it won't last 2 months, but most would still take.

 

In fact, that was one of my 3 favored windows.....1/1 thus far.

 

You were off a day from your first window, but we'll give it to you.

[Ginx snewx]

Not meteorological spring. But yeah, it can snow in March when nobody really wants it anymore.

au contraire

[40/70 Benchmark]

You were off a day from your first window, but we'll give it to you.

It lingered into early Sunday AM.

[JC-CT]

It lingered into early AM Sunday.

 

Blizzard conditions did?

[40/70 Benchmark]

au contraire

I'm sure scooter would tell you, but late season events are my fav.....less CJ amd pixie dus, more synoptic dynamics and man-snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Blizzard conditions did?

The event did.

Bad mood?

[40/70 Benchmark]

March is a fun time for snow. Yeah yeah....sun angle and all that stuff....but it's a battle of seasons. 

It's a fun time.

 

Anyway, the bottom line is that many of us felt as though the pattern flip would coincide with that of last year's timetable, and NE snowfall not withstanding, that it has.

The vast majority of the blizzard was a few hours to soon, sorry JC.

Lets talk February, which like January, should start meek and turn more exciting.

[JC-CT]

It's a fun time.

 

Anyway, the bottom line is that many of us felt as though the pattern flip would coincide with that of last year's timetable, and NE snowfall not withstanding, that it has.

The majority of the storm was a few hours to soon, sorry JC.

Lets talk February, which like January, should start meek and turn more exciting.

 

Yeah, I'm probably melting proportionately to the snow in my backyard. Sorry.

 

Would have liked to see the stratosphere come around earlier this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, I'm probably melting proportionately to the snow in my backyard. Sorry.

 

Would have liked to see the stratosphere come around earlier this month.

I get it.

No apology required.

I don't take it personally and you said nothing out of line, anyway.

 

Hell, I got less snow than you did.....but everything evens out.

I have zero right to b*tch after last year, and I won't.

 

I continue to think that fun lies ahead.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Another thing....keep in mind that we should not have to wait 20 days for the downward propagation to run its course before we see snow, either. We are going to see that GOA low retrograde long before then, and should have some PNA and EPO going, prior to the arctic and Atlantic reinforcements later in the month.

[snowman21]

Yeah, I'm probably melting proportionately to the snow in my backyard. Sorry.

Would have liked to see the stratosphere come around earlier this month.

We had 16 inches on Saturday, and we're down to a few inches with grassy areas rapidly expanding, so don't feel too bad about your melting snow!