February Pattern Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

must be some epic battles at that work place

Michael Ventrice‏@MJVentrice

Debatable, but I'm getting more excited about the stratosphere warming.

He's struggled at times this winter

[Ginx snewx]

The first 5 at least could be very ++   Also, we don't know if we have a relaxation in Feb. That's assuming a +PNA with very cold air. I doubt that happens for 3 weeks straight.  Even the weeklies, while looking pretty decent for snow chances..wasn't very cold. But, all we really care about, is precip anomalies really.

lets get that STJ rocking will ya. WTH

[40/70 Benchmark]

Absolutely miserable stretch.

No chance of anything for like 2 weeks.

If that event around Feb 7th isn't a KU, then I'm probably cooked relative to snowfall.

Already talks of another "break/relaxation" after that....

[Ginx snewx]

The first 5 at least could be very ++   Also, we don't know if we have a relaxation in Feb. That's assuming a +PNA with very cold air. I doubt that happens for 3 weeks straight.  Even the weeklies, while looking pretty decent for snow chances..wasn't very cold. But, all we really care about, is precip anomalies really.

oh I thought Euro Ens brought the CF through 12Z ish on the 4th

[Ginx snewx]

 

Already talks of another "break/relaxation" after that....

By who?

[ORH_wxman]

Absolutely miserable stretch.

No chance of anything for like 2 weeks.

If that event around Feb 7th isn't a KU, then I'm probably cooked relative to snowfall.

Already talks of another "break/relaxation" after that....

 

Eh...pretty much nobody saw the monster Kara ridge coming in early/mid January which changed the pattern to more favorable...not until we were inside of 2 weeks. So it's hard to take anything beyond that seriously.

[CoastalWx]

Absolutely miserable stretch.

No chance of anything for like 2 weeks.

If that event around Feb 7th isn't a KU, then I'm probably cooked relative to snowfall.

Already talks of another "break/relaxation" after that....

 

All I said was that I wouldn't assume it's 3 straight weeks of cold. It's natural to expect even a relaxation to normal at times in a 3 week span.

[Ginx snewx]

All I said was that I wouldn't assume it's 3 straight weeks of cold. It's natural to expect even a relaxation to normal at times in a 3 week span.

going to be a long thaw week around here. 18z GFS is interesting lol

[CoastalWx]

Overall it's a pretty good look with a nice ridge bubble north of AK. I don't see any issue that is glaring to me, after the early Feb warmth.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Overall it's a pretty good look with a nice ridge bubble north of AK. I don't see any issue that is glaring to me, after the early Feb warmth.

If I haven't hit 20" by VD Day, my snowfall totals are probably toast.

You can verify on a pattern all that you want, but eventually it just has to snow, and it hasn't.

 

Still time, but we must have a pretty efficient conversion rate on potential from now until spring.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If I haven't hit 20" by VD Day, my snowfall totals are probably toast.

You can verify on a pattern all that you want, but eventually it just has to snow, and it hasn't.

Still time, but we must have a pretty efficient conversion rate on potential from now until spring.

Our 3rd down conversion rate cannot mimic the pats on sunday if we want to pull off respectable snowfall totals. And after vday, the 3rd down distance gets longer.

[Damage In Tolland]

This could be the final nail in the coffin next week for some ski resorts..days of 50's and dews to the border

 

[ORH_wxman]

If I haven't hit 20" by VD Day, my snowfall totals are probably toast.

You can verify on a pattern all that you want, but eventually it just has to snow, and it hasn't.

 

Still time, but we must have a pretty efficient conversion rate on potential from now until spring.

 

 

We're likely gonna need at least a high-end MECS to get to climo for most of us in SNE (minus places like the Cape and south coast). Of course it can happen...we saw several last year after the HECS and saw that stretch in 2013 as well after going nearly snowless along the coast in Dec/Jan.

 

But the next good pattern in February is going to have top bring home the bacon to keep our chances alive going into the 2nd half of the month and March.

[ORH_wxman]

This could be the final nail in the coffin next week for some ski resorts..days of 50's and dews to the border

 

 

 

Ski resorts aren't getting days of 50s...they'll have the cutter warm sector most likely which you posted (unless it trends colder) but otherwise they'll be just above average with temps in the 30s.

[Damage In Tolland]

Ski resorts aren't getting days of 50s...they'll have the cutter warm sector most likely which you posted (unless it trends colder) but otherwise they'll be just above average with temps in the 30s.

In Ct and Mass there won't be days of at least 50ish? Look what happened today with deep snowpack to our south

[NorEastermass128]

In Ct and Mass there won't be days of at least 50ish? Look what happened today with deep snowpack to our south

So you're talking about ski resorts in CT and MA? When referring to "ski resorts" in a discussion, one's natural assumption is that you're talking about the NNE resorts, not the SNE ones.

You're the master of spin.

[Randy4Confluence]

Flooding in DC with warmth and heavy rains?

[512high]

I emailed Judah Cohen a few days ago asking his thoughts on the month of February , I asked if that month will provide a better chance of storminess (snow chances) then what we have experienced. For the record, everyone on this site has more knowledge than me, i always like to read these forums, just trying to learn a lot, I do snow removal in the winter, I'm glad most are contract this year!

Mr. Cohen response:"IF we get the polar vortex split like i am expecting, i think it will be a WILD END to winter here in the Northeast".

 

I asked if this included March? he said "Mid February to Mid March"

 

Not sure if this was the right place to post this.....Philip

 

[JC-CT]

Cohen is such a weenie. He should post here.

[Ginx snewx]

I emailed Judah Cohen a few days ago asking his thoughts on the month of February , I asked if that month will provide a better chance of storminess (snow chances) then what we have experienced. For the record, everyone on this site has more knowledge than me, i always like to read these forums, just trying to learn a lot, I do snow removal in the winter, I'm glad most are contract this year!

Mr. Cohen response:"IF we get the polar vortex split like i am expecting, i think it will be a WILD END to winter here in the Northeast".

I asked if this included March? he said "Mid February to Mid March"

Not sure if this was the right place to post this.....Philip

Philip might be just as easy to read this every Mondayhttps://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[512high]

Philip might be just as easy to read this every Mondayhttps://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Ginx, Thank you, Mr. Cohen sent me the link as well.....(you guys are pros , a lot of it over my head, had to google some wording....)

[CoastalWx]

To me, I see a Canadian warming right now. Probably would aid in helping maybe +PNA should the tropical Pacific cooperate. The EP

Flux was pointing poleward recently which is good.

[Ginx snewx]

To me, I see a Canadian warming right now. Probably would aid in helping maybe +PNA should the tropical Pacific cooperate. The EP

Flux was pointing poleward recently which is good.

Ray's Flux just pointed poleward

[ORH_wxman]

I don't totally disagree with Cohen...it could definitely be a wild ending like 1958 if we split that sucker. Still questionable if that happens, but there's at least some signs.

 

An ideal ending for us would be a +PNA-driven favorable pattern in first half of February and then go nuts with the blocking after that if we nuke the strat PV.

 

 

Of course, there are a lot of "ifs" in there. But if you are looking for that 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 shot we had been debating about reaching snowfall climo (at least for a place like ORH), then that is how to do it. I'd really like to see a solid storm in the Feb 6-10 period though to get the ball rolling.

[Isotherm]

Right now, what I see would continue to favor displacement if we do in fact force a major SSW. Though I can easily see us not having it due to the anomalous state of the vortex. The current strong wave-1 pulse this week is in response to the previous tropospheric precursor pattern, and over the next week we will again amplify wave-1 convergence at the vortex, which might be further enhanced by +MT emanating from Asia. This is why the models seem to suggest a transient re-intensification of the vortex in the Feb 1-5th period before another wave-1 hit 5-10th. This initial robust pulse should put the vortex in a much weaker state, such that any future strong pulses would more effectively achieve the desired SSW effect. I'm not confident enough to forecast a major SSW at this point, but I do think we'll continue to push the vortex / elongate it over the next couple weeks, which is certainly much preferred over the December-early January vortex state. I'm not really seeing the mechanism to induce a polar vortex split at this juncture. Would like to see more wave-2 action and build the European stratospheric high for that to occur. But regardless, looks like an interesting month coming up to me with the continued evolution of the tropospheric pattern. The key to achieving a colder than normal month in the East is the retrogression of the GOAK vortex, so that heights are permitted to rise over BC / AK. Some models are beginning to detect this. Since my winter outlook, I have always thought that February would be the only colder than normal month of the season in the Northeast, following a warm Dec and near normal January. We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We're likely gonna need at least a high-end MECS to get to climo for most of us in SNE (minus places like the Cape and south coast). Of course it can happen...we saw several last year after the HECS and saw that stretch in 2013 as well after going nearly snowless along the coast in Dec/Jan.

 

But the next good pattern in February is going to have top bring home the bacon to keep our chances alive going into the 2nd half of the month and March.

Yes, exactly.

 

Incredible that I have made it though those two threats with an aggregate 1"....the rainer and whiff.

SW queefs screwing us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Right now, what I see would continue to favor displacement if we do in fact force a major SSW. Though I can easily see us not having it due to the anomalous state of the vortex. The current strong wave-1 pulse this week is in response to the previous tropospheric precursor pattern, and over the next week we will again amplify wave-1 convergence at the vortex, which might be further enhanced by +MT emanating from Asia. This is why the models seem to suggest a transient re-intensification of the vortex in the Feb 1-5th period before another wave-1 hit 5-10th. This initial robust pulse should put the vortex in a much weaker state, such that any future strong pulses would more effectively achieve the desired SSW effect. I'm not confident enough to forecast a major SSW at this point, but I do think we'll continue to push the vortex / elongate it over the next couple weeks, which is certainly much preferred over the December-early January vortex state. I'm not really seeing the mechanism to induce a polar vortex split at this juncture. Would like to see more wave-2 action and build the European stratospheric high for that to occur. But regardless, looks like an interesting month coming up to me with the continued evolution of the tropospheric pattern. The key to achieving a colder than normal month in the East is the retrogression of the GOAK vortex, so that heights are permitted to rise over BC / AK. Some models are beginning to detect this. Since my winter outlook, I have always thought that February would be the only colder than normal month of the season in the Northeast, following a warm Dec and near normal January. We'll see.

This is what I have been banking on the most since drawing up the outlook.

The stratospheric phenomena is just so unreliable imo, that you are treading on thin ice depending on it....pun intended.

[Isotherm]

This is what I have been banking on since drawing up the outlook.

The stratospheric phenomena is just so unreliable imo, that you are treading on thin ice depending on it....pun intended.

 

 

Agree it's very difficult to forecast. +ENSO climatology / progression as well as current / forecast chi 200hpa over the next few weeks would generally be supportive of conducive NPAC vortex placement. What we also missed in the early/mid January -EPO episode was the PNA extension. The undercutting jet prevented true realization of the cold air. Some of the ensembles are now suggesting a look not too dissimilar from last year whereby we build the PNA heights poleward through Alaska. We'll have to monitor this trend going forward as that will definitely be important for cold and winter prospects.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree it's very difficult to forecast. +ENSO climatology / progression as well as current / forecast chi 200hpa over the next few weeks would generally be supportive of conducive NPAC vortex placement. What we also missed in the early/mid January -EPO episode was the PNA extension. The undercutting jet prevented true realization of the cold air. Some of the ensembles are now suggesting a look not too dissimilar from last year whereby we build the PNA heights poleward through Alaska. We'll have to monitor this trend going forward as that will definitely be important for cold and winter prospects.

Yes....the retrogression of that low and its attendant favorable NPAC is a much higher confidence forecast because it is perfectly congruent with late season el nino climo.

The EURO seasonal was all over this.

I do expect more atlantic, and especially arctic blocking, but the NPAC is the safer bet.

 

BTW, I am surprised by how confident Cohen sounds in the PV split.

[CoastalWx]

What an inferno to start Feb. Luckily looks good after 2/5.