powderfreak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Secondly, I asked the other day if the Model thread should not be re-pinned, - but , heh, I didn't get a response either. So I started discussing models and patterns conjointly here. Yeah definitely needs to be pinned, otherwise you get today with model discussion here and the Model mezzo thread down below the Debra thread halfway down the page. It's easier for those of us that do themajority of posting from mobile devices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 29m 29 minutes ago Don't write off the 24th on account of the ECMWF op! Strong signal in EPS for east coast monster, supports GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I feel partly responsible for the last several pages of this Pattern discussion thread going into model specifics. First of all, there is a HUGE difference between discussing model outputs, trends and differences between cycles and versus one another, to that of using broader canvased teleconnector reasoning to create an opinion about a month's pattern. Those two are getting confused in a smoldering hostility by nascent posters. Secondly, I asked the other day if the Model thread should not be re-pinned, - but , heh, I didn't get a response either. So I started discussing models and patterns conjointly here. nascent this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Box seems to like Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 C'mon guys...what is with the ridiculous semantical arguments? We've been doing pattern threads for like 3 winters now...it's not that hard. Discuss the general signals in here and teleconnections and ensemble type guidance....if you want to discuss where the 850 0C line is and the QPF amounts on a 174 hour prog, then go to the model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol and what determines what the pattern will be for the remaining 14 days of Feb, the farmers almanac or models? Dumb We should start a thread to discuss the Farmers Almanac threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We should start a thread to discuss the Farmers Almanac threats.concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am now realizing again to only seriously look at the Euro going forward. The rest are JVs, the upgrade has been even better. Save a horse. Be wary of that next winter, in La Niñas the GFS generally tends to perform better on significant winter systems because they are usually northern stream dominated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Be wary of that next winter, in La Niñas the GFS generally tends to perform better on significant winter systems because they are usually northern stream dominated This is true ... but is there an expected La Nina ... ? I was thinking La Nada my self... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Be wary of that next winter, in La Niñas the GFS generally tends to perform better on significant winter systems because they are usually northern stream dominated The GFS has been pretty bad in Ninas. The euro did a lot better in 2008,2009, and 2011 IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The GFS has been pretty bad in Ninas. The euro did a lot better in 2008,2009, and 2011 IMO. Really? well, I tell you what - I agreed with him (her) but ... put it this way: the GFS does better in Ninas than otherwise Of course, all that is subject to retest because NCEP has just upgraded the hardware such that it is 3 X more powerful in computing capacity. That's in part why the output from the GFS is coming up with obscene granularity at D9s ... Not sure if that's more accurate per se - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well we shall see this year, if...we do have Nina. A lot of guidance points to at least weak. However, the GFS has been terrible in previous Ninas. Way too far SE. The euro really solidified Dr No in the '07-'08 winter when it crushed the hopes of weenies from NYC-DCA. I'm not sure the old nrn stream idea works. Modeling has changed a lot. It's also why we probably can't apply any model bias during previous ENSO events. I'm just commenting on past performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Be wary of that next winter, in La Niñas the GFS generally tends to perform better on significant winter systems because they are usually northern stream dominatedbeen watching models since NGM ETA days the GFS isn't very good in winter no matter the background state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well we shall see this year, if...we do have Nina. A lot of guidance points to at least weak. However, the GFS has been terrible in previous Ninas. Way too far SE. The euro really solidified Dr No in the '07-'08 winter when it crushed the hopes of weenies from NYC-DCA. I'm not sure the old nrn stream idea works. Modeling has changed a lot. It's also why we probably can't apply any model bias during previous ENSO events. I'm just commenting on past performance.I have no idea where they came up with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 This is true ... but is there an expected La Nina ... ? I was thinking La Nada my self... I don't think its going to be as strong as some of the climate models show. I think maybe 83-84, certainly unlikely based on evidence right now that it will go 98-99 or 10-11. There will probably end up being a better STJ next winter than there was this year. I know we had a La Nina in recent years that had an active STJ and surprised everyone. Well we shall see this year, if...we do have Nina. A lot of guidance points to at least weak. However, the GFS has been terrible in previous Ninas. Way too far SE. The euro really solidified Dr No in the '07-'08 winter when it crushed the hopes of weenies from NYC-DCA. I'm not sure the old nrn stream idea works. Modeling has changed a lot. It's also why we probably can't apply any model bias during previous ENSO events. I'm just commenting on past performance. It definitely seems the Euro is not as good as it used to be for some reason. I assume its because the UKMET/GFS/CMC have probably closed the gap somewhat. Also the fact everyone now looks at models regularly out to day 5-8 more so than was the case 10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro ensembles look good right through the end of the run....there's a huge EPO ridge that tries to build all the way into the central arctic. May have to get a March pattern thread fired up soon. I'll bet the month starts off with storm threats and generally below average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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