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February Pattern Disco


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Scott, always asking you the same questions....from what you see, Southern NH get involved, or is this coastal area etc...ty philip

 

For Friday? Right now nobody gets involved really. I certainly have no idea who is "targeted" beyond day 10 as that is out of the skill for any human or model.

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Scott, always asking you the same questions....from what you see, Southern NH get involved, or is this coastal area etc...ty philip

 

 

I'm not Scott...but he'll say the same thing...way too early to know who would get hit in any potential systems that far out. The longwave pattern though should support storm chances for our region in general, so anywhere from NNE to SNE would be in the game.

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I'm not Scott...but he'll say the same thing...way too early to know who would get hit in any potential systems that far out. The longwave pattern though should support storm chances for our region in general, so anywhere from NNE to SNE would be in the game.

ORH/CoastalWX....My mistake!(sorry) I do commerical snow plowing/removal..im just running out of things for my two guys in the shop to do(lol) i wansnt asking for a promise etc, its good to know i think you said day 9 things may get intresting....philip

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All one can say is there will be better potential after Day 8-9, Detailed storm tracks cannot be determined. I know it's tough when you're businesses depends on it. Hopefully we turn the tide across the deeper interior areas, probability would seem to argue against escaping another favorable long wave pattern like we just had with only a few inches of snow.

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combined with this precip anamoly map, its a sweet look.

 

Well a decent chunk of that is from the cutter deal around the 3rd, but there does look to be a signal a few days after that and another around the 10th which would have a better chance of frozen.

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Well a decent chunk of that is from the cutter deal around the 3rd, but there does look to be a signal a few days after that and another around the 10th which would have a better chance of frozen.

Right, forgot about the cutter factoring into the precip blob.

Gotta hope second week of Feb can produce something then cuz after vday, time is ticking.

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Plenty of time after Valentines day still in SNE...at least a month realistically. But I get ya. The clocks been ticking for a while now.

There is time after vday yea. March can be fun with blue bombs...but vday is my melting cutoff. If I'm still at 9" by then and following 10-15 days look bleek, the cubes in my freezer start melting.

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I know there are a couple of WSI folks on here but surprised to see they are going with "widespread above normal" in the east for Feb and March.

 

http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-forecasts-a-return-to-a-warmer-pattern-in-eastern-us-by-early-february

What a torch. Gonna be some big time busts if Scooter and Co are right

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What a torch. Gonna be some big time busts if Scooter and Co are right

now that is a hedge if I ever saw one, +1 to 3  in Feb is a torch , guess he missed todays EPS

 

 As a result, we expect a return to a much milder weather pattern in the Eastern part of the US by early February. While there are colder risks later in February, driven by the continuing evolution of the sub-seasonal tropical forcing and potentially from the stratosphere, we feel that the aggregate pattern for February will favor widespread above-normal temperatures in the East, although certainly not to the degree that we saw in December.”

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isn't it only 4 days in "Early Feb" that are AN though? 

 

The first 5 at least could be very ++   Also, we don't know if we have a relaxation in Feb. That's assuming a +PNA with very cold air. I doubt that happens for 3 weeks straight.  Even the weeklies, while looking pretty decent for snow chances..wasn't very cold. But, all we really care about, is precip anomalies really.

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