CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol...getting emotional about a system during the long-predicted mild spell being rain. IF we get snow from that, it's totally gravy. That Feb 20-22 period has never looked wintry since the ensembles could see it. Yeah this week is tossed I think, hopefully in favor of the end of the month. I would consider any snow a win as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My only concern is a ridge off the East Coast. You can either go out in glory, or play with fire and get wet. Otherwise, the cold will be nearby. Question - the cpc has the MJO going into phase 7. Would this have an effect in lowering the ridge off the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah this week is tossed I think, hopefully in favor of the end of the month. I would consider any snow a win as you said.unless the follow up develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Question - the cpc has the MJO going into phase 7. Would this have an effect in lowering the ridge off the east coast? That ridge off the coast seems to be a product of the -EPO ridge. It happens, especially if the NAO is positive. So, I'm not sure if that will have an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 unless the follow up develops. Yeah. However that isn't exactly screaming high likelihood right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That ridge seems to be a product of the -EPO ridge happens, especially if the NAO is positive. So, I'm not sure if that will have an effect. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 From what we've been seeing today from mets on here..it appears SNE snow time is about done and we pass the torch to NNE. Anyone see anything different from that idea?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What?lol fishing expedition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 From what we've been seeing today from mets on here..it appears SNE snow time is about done and we pass the torch to NNE. Anyone see anything different from that idea?. Yeah, I do ... First thing, folks should be vigil to separate hyperbole from objective reasoning. We're starring down the barrel of a scenario that is about as darkly poetically f-up as imaginatively possible - its just time to have fun with it. But, in reality, the overnight teleconnectors are really hefty with a re-surging positive PNA lasting 2 weeks or more. The rise in the index begins around the 18th of the month and it appears to last into the first week of March. Myself I mentioned this days ago, and that it would herald a period of time for possible recouperation on senses of winter loss. Particularly, the MJO is strong and zipping through Phase 6, only progged to gain strength as it head-longs its way through 7. That activity correlates well to colder than normal from the NP-GL-OV-NE regions. ... which is also PNA -related. That's all code for having two teleconnectors in constructive interference, which would mean strengthening their effectiveness. It's not guarantee for any x,y,z event, but you'd be a fool to close the book on this winter given that converging signal - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol fishing expeditionShark on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What?a few others ..And you were unsure wet or white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Worth saving that GFS run for future verification of the snow maps... 3-5 feet across NNE from the 12z GFS in total. I'm thinking no but Dr. Yes is saying go. Wish I could plug some other algorithm than just straight 10:1 ratio... bet we could get it to say like 40-70" widespread if we go 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Worth saving that GFS run for future verification of the snow maps... 3-5 feet across NNE from the 12z GFS in total. I'm thinking no but Dr. Yes is saying go. Wish I could plug some other algorithm than just straight 10:1 ratio... bet we could get it to say like 40-70" widespread if we go 15:1 ratios. GFS.png Lol well that would certainly enhance the complexion of this winter. Not save it completely mind you but definitely help a bit. Of course we know that things will not work out exactly like that but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol well that would certainly enhance the complexion of this winter. Not save it completely mind you but definitely help a bit. Of course we know that things will not work out exactly like that but fun to look at. If that happened as depicted I would be able to get to 50% of annual snowfall going into March. It's amazing that we are far enough behind that 40" in 2 weeks would get us to about 50% with a month to go. I'd be at 65" or so of a 125" average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yea but at this point I wouldn't focus on ytd avg...I would relish 3ft+ and just focus on the present and not the past. Just erase Dec and Jan out of your minds, nne, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Worth saving that GFS run for future verification of the snow maps... 3-5 feet across NNE from the 12z GFS in total. I'm thinking no but Dr. Yes is saying go. Wish I could plug some other algorithm than just straight 10:1 ratio... bet we could get it to say like 40-70" widespread if we go 15:1 ratios. GFS.png I'm pretty sure I know what this map is good for....... The colors are pretty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 a few others ..And you were unsure wet or white You need to stop fishing, man. All it does is confuse the googmoogs of the world. That being said, I don't see a reason to be pessimistic. The 12z ensembles shifted the ridge axis out west just east a bit to be pretty favorable for us verbatim. Hopefully it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Worth saving that GFS run for future verification of the snow maps... 3-5 feet across NNE from the 12z GFS in total. I'm thinking no but Dr. Yes is saying go. Wish I could plug some other algorithm than just straight 10:1 ratio... bet we could get it to say like 40-70" widespread if we go 15:1 ratios. GFS.png 59" at HIE...lol yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eps looks pretty meh to me for the rest of the month today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Eps looks pretty meh to me for the rest of the month today at 12zlol wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol wut He lives in S NJ..so perhaps down there it's trickier for winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 He lives in S NJ..so perhaps down there it's trickier for winter wxLol. We have more snow then you this year down here. Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol. We have more snow then you this year down here. Lolz I have 28" How about you? Looks like your sig says 27.5 Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 He lives in S NJ..so perhaps down there it's trickier for winter wx-3/4 850 average 5 days 10-15. 5 day 500 heights are 30-40 meters BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I have 28" How about you? Looks like your sig says 27.5 Oops Compared to climo, he's likely well above you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The ensembles looked pretty active. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I have 28" How about you? Looks like your sig says 27.5 Oops 31 at New Brunswick Nj And ewr/Lga/JFK all above 30! All those urban environments so close to the water with more snow then you. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Compared to climo, he's likely well above you. I don't add up every little snow shower that rolls through....Rutgers is in New Brunswick with the weather center and they have 31 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The ensembles looked pretty active. I'd hit it.there's something up with Allsnow, His analysis is always bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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