MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 13m13 minutes ago One of the most impressive Rossby wave train forecasts I've ever seen out of the ECMWF Weeklies. AMP the pattern up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Weeklies continue the -EPO with ridging off the east coast. Similar to ensembles. So, tough to say it will be cold, but cold lurks. Week 4 looks a bit wetter than normal too. The long range always looks great until it jumps into bed with the medium range cosmic dildo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 13m13 minutes ago One of the most impressive Rossby wave train forecasts I've ever seen out of the ECMWF Weeklies. AMP the pattern up. Amp it up...is this a good thing? This Tuesday storm is amped...which doesn't look good for most at this stage. So what does he exactly mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 13m13 minutes ago One of the most impressive Rossby wave train forecasts I've ever seen out of the ECMWF Weeklies. AMP the pattern up. You are like look a google database with arms. Want some good news? Type in snow on Anthony's forehead and he'll flush out something from the bowels of twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You are like look a google database with arms. Want some good news? Type in snow on Anthony's forehead and he'll flush out something from the bowels of twitter. What? HM is also on the same boat. Mjo looks good moving forward. Spring will be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I see plenty of reason to be optimistic late month into early March....if you are expecting February 2015, then you probably need a new hobby or to relearn climo....but that's a decent look....the EPO certainly goes negative and there's signs the AO goes strongly negative too. Hey, we got two decent events out of this last pattern...no KU (yes, they do not grow on trees despite what recent years might have tricked you into believing), but two moderate (to heavy in spots) snow events in SNE and some near-record bitter cold is a solid showing. I'd prefer a -NAO to show up...but we'll have to play without it...maybe try the Feb/early Mar 1993 approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 MJO moving into good phases with cooperating AO. I don't think pessimism is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 MJO moving into good phases with cooperating AO. I don't think pessimism is warranted. I told you, I like March....especially early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the goal should be a couple of nice 10" deals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I told you, I like March....especially early. I think Will said it yesterday, but I wouldn't sleep on a sneaky overrunning deal near 2/20 too. I admit it's low confidence, but some signs it may be there. Next week blows, but they happen in every winter. Except in 2015 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think Will said it yesterday, but I wouldn't sleep on a sneaky overrunning deal near 2/20 too. I admit it's low confidence, but some signs it may be there. Next week blows, but they happen in every winter. Except in 2015 LOL. 2015 had 3 unimaginably epic weeks, the rest blew. They do happen every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 MJO moving into good phases with cooperating AO. I don't think pessimism is warranted. Yeah...there will definitely be some whining though during the relaxation before...even if it's muted compared to what was shown several day ago....but coming off a HV runner, a couple 44-52 days will send some over the edge if there isn't a KU modeled by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I can see "clusters" or groups of similar EC ensemble members....and they look pretty nice after next week. The general tracks seem like overrunning or systems coming out of the south. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 it has been a dogs age literally since there was a heavy snyoptic cold march snowstorm region wide across all of sne..i mean no mixing and no measuring on top of cars or your back deck etc... march 09 was close but amounts were only a half foot or so around here and less to the nw...but march 09 style just 8 plus region wide 07 mixed too much firehose 13 ng here all others were mixers or too light or not regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah...there will definitely be some whining though during the relaxation before...even if it's muted compared to what was shown several day ago....but coming off a HV runner, a couple 44-52 days will send some over the edge if there isn't a KU modeled by then. I know I won't whine...I've accepted it and am looking beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 BOX is talking about a big artic shot after the storm . Like right back into the freezer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I've been following this upcoming period for a few weeks and have thought that the GEFS had the superior look (compared to the EPS) given the consistency w/ Pacific forcing. Over the past several days, what we've seen has been a gradual shift of the EPS toward the GEFS idea of a very transient, weak warm-up. Have to give credit to the GEFS for maintaining this idea over the past 10 days, while the EPS concurrently, was essentially cancelling winter. This will be a brief warm-up, and particularly for New England. As soon as heights attempt to rise in the East, the poleward PNA is already building, which promotes more FROPAS into the Northeast, keeping the airmasses seasonable. I think the next 7-8 days could offer some opportunities for New England, particularly interior, as the baroclinic zone shifts around nearby. Thereafter, my opinion remains the same that we're looking at a fairly classic conducive forcing / PV displacement type geopotential height pattern with the -EPO / +PNA and -AO. Unfortunately, I don't believe the NAO will be of much help over the next couple weeks, but I think there's a chance we achieve NAO help in March. The PV will be taking another significant hit at the end of February, and this may weaken it enough to finally allow for Greenland height rise. But that is a low confidence speculation. Right now, I'd feel confident w/ a -EPO/+PNA/-AO pattern in the means for Feb 20 --> given current indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 If the cutter trends into something a little more palatable then the long-range will suddenly take on a much rosier gleam in many a weenie's eye. Cutters cause panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 it has been a dogs age literally since there was a heavy snyoptic cold march snowstorm region wide across all of sne..i mean no mixing and no measuring on top of cars or your back deck etc... march 09 was close but amounts were only a half foot or so around here and less to the nw...but march 09 style just 8 plus region wide 07 mixed too much firehose 13 ng here all others were mixers or too light or not regionwide A heavy synoptic cold March snowstorm (8"+) that covers almost all of SNE with zero mixing is really rare actually. You probably will find maybe 2 per decade on average....you just end up disqualifying so many storms that were cold but mixed (like '07), were paste jobs or screwed somewhere like the valley (like Mar 2013) or didn't give enough snow to qualify (like March 2009). I mean, even in the 1990s, the glory years of many March snow events...how many qualify? Maybe March 7-8, 1996...Mar 3, 1994? Though that latter one had mixing issues near the coast, so we disqualify. Mar 1993 is disqualified because sleet mixed in many spots. Mar 4-5, 1993 is disqualified because it wasn't cold. Mar 1999 disqualified because not everywhere got enough snow. Etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the next 7-8 days could offer some opportunities for New England, particularly interior, as the baroclinic zone shifts around nearby. I agree with your sentiment on this, I believe there is plenty of opportunity for something to pop up in the mid-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 After the Canal cutter Tuesday I think a follow up wave similar to last Friday is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A heavy synoptic cold March snowstorm (8"+) that covers almost all of SNE with zero mixing is really rare actually. You probably will find maybe 2 per decade on average....you just end up disqualifying so many storms that were cold but mixed (like '07), were paste jobs or screwed somewhere like the valley (like Mar 2013) or didn't give enough snow to qualify (like March 2009). I mean, even in the 1990s, the glory years of many March snow events...how many qualify? Maybe March 7-8, 1996...Mar 3, 1994? Though that latter one had mixing issues near the coast, so we disqualify. Mar 1993 is disqualified because sleet mixed in many spots. Mar 4-5, 1993 is disqualified because it wasn't cold. Mar 1999 disqualified because not everywhere got enough snow. Etc, etc. Do you remember the inv trough in Mar '94? I had a nice disco with my friend Dan about that. Really nailed nrn ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 A heavy synoptic cold March snowstorm (8"+) that covers almost all of SNE with zero mixing is really rare actually. You probably will find maybe 2 per decade on average....you just end up disqualifying so many storms that were cold but mixed (like '07), were paste jobs or screwed somewhere like the valley (like Mar 2013) or didn't give enough snow to qualify (like March 2009). I mean, even in the 1990s, the glory years of many March snow events...how many qualify? Maybe March 7-8, 1996...Mar 3, 1994? Though that latter one had mixing issues near the coast, so we disqualify. Mar 1993 is disqualified because sleet mixed in many spots. Mar 4-5, 1993 is disqualified because it wasn't cold. Mar 1999 disqualified because not everywhere got enough snow. Etc, etc. I seem to remember many a March snowstorm in the 90s. Cannot remember the exact year before 1993, but i distinctly remember a weekend in March where SNE and NYC had a 7 incher and 3 inch clipper on a Friday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Do you remember the inv trough in Mar '94? I had a nice disco with my friend Dan about that. Really nailed nrn ORH county. Yes, Mar 16-17, 1994...we got about 5-6" in ORH but not too far away had close to 12". Big positive bust...I think like 1-2" was the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I seem to remember many a March snowstorm in the 90s. Cannot remember the exact year before 1993, but i distinctly remember a weekend in March where SNE and NYC had a 7 incher and 3 inch clipper on a Friday and Sunday. 1992, the first system on Thursday was supposed to change to rain in NYC and never did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes, Mar 16-17, 1994...we got about 5-6" in ORH but not too far away had close to 12". Big positive bust...I think like 1-2" was the forecast. Yeah Hubbardston did real well. Classic look on the PSU NARR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 1992, the first system on Thursday was supposed to change to rain in NYC and never did Thanks. Great memory. I remember the frigid air for the clipper too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gefs look pretty toasty 18-20th after that looks like pac air is flooding canada. very diff then the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gefs look pretty toasty 18-20th after that looks like pac air is flooding canada. very diff then the eps GFS/GEFS always do that. EPS has led the way this year....Plan on a reload post 2/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS/GEFS always do that. EPS has led the way this year....Plan on a reload post 2/24 GEFS still have a strongly -EPO in the LR anyway...that's not PAC air flooding into Canada post 2/23-2/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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