CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You think the warmup is inevitable at this point? Sorry for sounding like a weenie, it's been a rough year for the Albany area. Yes. My guess is turns milder for a time after the arctic blast. Whether it's 5-7 days or only 2-3 days is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yes. My guess is turns milder for a time after the arctic blast. Whether it's 5-7 days or only 2-3 days is questionable. Are the temps possibly over done with the fresh block of ice that will be on the ground after this weekends cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's too late for any SSW to help out this winter . Even if one happens by the time it helps the pattern you're into mid Morch fighting climo and sun angle etc. the SSW idea this winter was a fail. I thought this too UNTIL I read "The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate" by Mitchell et al., 2012 in the Journal of Climate. Opened my eyes- I strongly recommend everyone here to read through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I thought this too UNTIL I read "The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate" by Mitchell et al., 2012 in the Journal of Climate. Opened my eyes- I strongly recommend everyone here to read through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Considered a must read in every American household, I'm sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah it's true ... A few days ago I posted about the terminating cold/storm look to the teleconnectors, but things have certainly changed since then. Using that technique to generate a general landscape ... there is now a new resurgence in +PNA beyond D9 that extends to the edge of the product outlooks. Which is also interestingly in tandem with the current MJO wave prognostics ... intensifying and passing from 6 into 7 and possibly beyond. This time of year, an attenuating ENSO does tend to superimpose constructively over Phases 7 thru 2 over around the left side of the diagram. Those phases or more positively correlated with PNA; so too is the attenuated ENSO. Thus the two together supports that general theme others describe in the ensembles - well, ... since the teleconnectors are derived from the ensembles, it stands to reason. Anyway, it may be that the MJO is entering ...or about to, one of those periods of time where it's correlation on pattern forcing comes to the front burner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty nice rebuilding of the EPO/PNA ridge out in the final 2 days of the GEFS. The relaxation is pretty short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's too late for any SSW to help out this winter . Even if one happens by the time it helps the pattern you're into mid Morch fighting climo and sun angle etc. the SSW idea this winter was a fail. Shockingly ...there's some value to this statement above. The annuls have records of SSW's kicking off as late as mid Marches that propagate down and then terminate as late as mid to late April ... That definitely means something different for a Hemisphere in seasonal recovery, versus one that has no defense against cold conveyors. In fact, I know of -AO lag correlation; what is less clear is what a -AO means in late January versus mid April. There's been some fluke block episodes ...May '77 and so forth, as well as some Mays in the early 2000's. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Shockingly ...there's some value to this statement above. The annuls have records of SSW's kicking off as late as mid Marches that propagate down and then terminate as late as mid to late April ... That definitely means something different for a Hemisphere in seasonal recovery, versus one that has no defense against cold conveyors. In fact, I know of -AO lag correlation; what is less clear is what a -AO means in late January versus mid April. There's been some fluke block episodes ...May '77 and so forth, as well as some Mays in the early 2000's. interesting. Was May 2003 one of them? That was a really cold June I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The GEFS and 06z GFS look serviceable LR. What's the Euro offering? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Considered a must read in every American household, I'm sure... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Pretty nice rebuilding of the EPO/PNA ridge out in the final 2 days of the GEFS. The relaxation is pretty short. Yeah just an immediate reload. Does the lr Euro look like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 LR euro also develops it. However, it may turn milder before that. GEFS have a gradient look so hopefully we can stay on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah euro ensembles are definitely on board with the PAC reload but their D11-13 looks a bit torchier than the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Past February 10 ... patterns need to be THAT much more inclined or we start to off-set with hemispheric insolation recovery (seasonal return). eyes roll but that's the reality .. The curve changes solar sign Having said that, I'm intrigued by the intensifying, and progressive, MJO prognostic - as of last night really showing a moderate to strong wave punching headlong through Phase 6 and into 7. MJOs, in general, have a constructive interference correlation wrt to warm ENSOs .. the lingering state of the slowly decaying El Nino going on... all that is code for big ridge in western N/A possibly as near-by as 10 or 11 days from now. Operational GFS ...and in fact, a good deal of the ensemble members are squarely on board. This is also reflected in the extended PNA teleconnector outlooks at both CDC and CPC agencies. Seems a solid median confidence for NOT going too warm in anyones thinking for the 2nd half of the month; and yes, this is also a script change from my own previous thinking, when I opined an early spring. Spring is relative ... we could still bust out in mid March over a month from now and succeed at "earliness"... By the way, two periods to warch: One is about D7 or so.. . Such an anomalously cold air mass attempts to flip gradient around by retreating high... "normally"? rain. Buuut, given to that degree of depth and turn around it may over-run with snow and ice. Also, I would watch around 204-240 hours... About half the GEFs members have some sort of Miller A getting captured and flung up the coast by another diving MV trough. Not showing up too well if at all in the operatonals of any camp - no. But it seeing that many ensemble members with that idea, it could emerge here. Helluva 1 day cold snap at D6 too! wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thanks Tip. Between your last post and this one, I almost forgot that spring was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice AFD Tippy. Looking forward to the potential d10 before a mini relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice AFD Tippy. Looking forward to the potential d10 before a mini relaxation. I wouldn't do that - the implicit tone in all that was to just watch for something, only. again, ...several GFS ensemble members have a feature there running up the coast. the operational versions don't seem to carry that. in fact, i'd actually watch more closely for the D7 overrunning - which could even evolve into something more than merely that, with a open wave approaching the M/A triggering an NJ low. I'm actually surprised there isn't more discussion around that possible 'little critter'. both the ggem and Euro are keen on it. the ukment? pre-bomb appeal, we'll see. gotta love the in situ +PNA/PNAP relay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I didn't mean I'm going gun ho about it. But that I will look out for the potential even if OP runs don't show ideal solutions at the surface. So thx for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 I wouldn't do that - the implicit tone in all that was to just watch for something, only. again, ...several GFS ensemble members have a feature there running up the coast. the operational versions don't seem to carry that. in fact, i'd actually watch more closely for the D7 overrunning - which could even evolve into something more than merely that, with a open wave approaching the M/A triggering an NJ low. I'm actually surprised there isn't more discussion around that possible 'little critter'. both the ggem and Euro are keen on it. the ukment? pre-bomb appeal, we'll see. gotta love the in situ +PNA/PNAP relay Steve and I were discussing that last night. The 12z para EURO yesterday had 1-2' across eastern MA from that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Steve and I were discussing that last night. The 12z para EURO yesterday had 1-2' across eastern MA from that system. yeah, the impetus was "more discussion" i'm sure with all the snow-sniffin' glue mongrels we got sifting through shag carpeting like crack whore's coming down off a high, SOMEone has identified the threat ... j/k. yeah, i just saw the 06z GFS operational; that's a pretty classic attempt at an NJ bomb there, but just misses with - you guessed it - some minor wave space contention (unrelenting 2015-2016 mantra). Appears there are two wind maxima that interfere just enough to limit the coherency of one main player low. But anytime you have that kind of negative tilt ... that could even be thread started. I don't have a problem with wiener schnitzel threads if the canvas of teleconnectors actually support the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 yeah, the impetus was "more discussion" i'm sure with all the snow-sniffin' glue mongrels we got sifting through shag carpeting like crack whore's coming down off a high, SOMEone has identified the threat ... j/k. yeah, i just saw the 06z GFS operational; that's a pretty classic attempt at an NJ bomb there, but just misses with - you guessed it - some minor wave space contention (unrelenting 2015-2016 mantra). Appears there are two wind maxima that interfere just enough to limit the coherency of one main player low. But anytime you have that kind of negative tilt ... that could even be thread started. I don't have a problem with wiener schnitzel threads if the canvas of teleconnectors actually support the event. I know you joke.....but I really do have a problem....it interferes with my life at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I know you joke.....but I really do have a problem....it interferes with my life at times. Oh I'm with ya - ... one thing you get better at as you get older is not being AS offended by the weather god - ahhahaha. seriously though, I think with age one gets adaptability to change more. For me, the day after a blizzard ... if the sun comes out and the temp soars to eave torrent 55 F I'm immediately reminiscent of just about everything and every-whence that exists between April 15 and October 1... Contrasting, when peering into an event from the other direction, my nostalgia shifts also on an equally speedy dime and I am pulled by thoughts of blue tinted dawns with snow drifting up window sills, and the car tenting over in the driveway. it just flips around for me super fast. That's why I hate later March through April - in part... Because, by the time we get to ides of Mar, the frequency of winter events is too low to stop my ambition tsunamis for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 in fact, i'd actually watch more closely for the D7 overrunning - which could even evolve into something more than merely that, with a open wave approaching the M/A triggering an NJ low. I'm actually surprised there isn't more discussion around that possible 'little critter'. both the ggem and Euro are keen on it. the ukment? pre-bomb appeal, we'll see. wrong thread, but the ukie definitely looked about to explode last night. I'd love that look if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 wrong thread, but the ukie definitely looked about to explode last night. I'd love that look if it verified. no schister! that would spin up the internet kingdom into quite a fever pitch if that set up materialized. the 06z GFS was not really horribly different from that sort of appeal. the biggest difference was that - as usual - the ukmet is/was a goodly bit more orienting matters with its typical N-S/latitude bias to do so. ...contrasting the GFS is more stretched in the longitude/pancaked overall. who ever thunk - a compromise between those models?! zoinks. again, the GGEM and Euro were on-board with some sort of over-running late developer deal. it's all enough to keep prospects alive for early next week. hell, these things tend to be cyclic - maybe were rollin' things over every Mon. nice ...heheh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I voted for typhoon tip tonight. When a man inspires hope, He disserves my vote. doesnt matter if I have no avatar im actually glad I dont by the way Cybor bullies are the biggest ******* on the planet. hope I dont get repremanded for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I voted for typhoon tip tonight. When a man inspires hope, He disserves my vote. doesnt matter if I have no avatar im actually glad I dont by the way Cybor bullies are the biggest ******* on the planet. hope I dont get repremanded for that. big baby get an avatar.. you know I'm kidding right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How's da LR 00z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The vortex will be significantly weaker and re-position itself in a location that is much more favorable for EPO/AO blocking than we saw the first half of the winter. We may not see severe blocking, but that isn't necessary at least in the US for colder than normal weather. The tropical forcing is a factor, but there is a near equal frequency of SSW events in La Nina's and El Ninos. Actually, La Nina's are slightly favored over Nino's. I'm not crazy about the term "drive the bus" as I think there are many important factors, and it's difficult to isolate causation. Many of the Nino winters with -AO in the second half featured favorable forcing and a perturbed vortex in the stratosphere. Both contribute. If we had the vortex in the state we experienced in December, I think the AO would probably be consistently strongly positive right now. We started getting into a more favorable pattern heading past the beginning of Jan. We should again see better conditions later this month too. The problem is, the 10mb-50mb layer never really reversed or had a large impact as of now, and that's what matters. The displacement sure helps, but that was also aided by tropospheric response too. Models did a very good job showing the 10mb-50mb layer having a tough time staying perturbed and truly reversing. That's been my argument all along. The SSW that some hoped to switch the NAO negative did not happen. You simply can't expect a record cold strat to switch in a dime. Granted it did have a displacement that warmed up, but maybe if the QBO wasn't so positive, it would be easier. Edit, meant Jan first statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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