Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Color me confused. oh, ha! okay - i thought you meant that seasonal model. come to think about it - is that even called the cdc? i think i got that wrong... I think it's the CF something - climate diagnostic center - yes, they do as good a job as any at arithmetic they're not lying, or inventing numbers. eof calculations are the same regardless of the university, provided the numbers going into the polynomial expressions are the same. having said that, yes there are differences in the agencies. the cpc, climate prognostic center for example, uses the mid level geopotential anomalies for their teleconnector derivatives. the cdc on the other hand, uses low-level wind flux anomalies. in the strict theoretical sense, it should not matter. the mid level geopotential heights cannot be disconnect from low-level wind fileds, as the modulation of the mid level is what ultimately drives the wind - duh. there may be some lag where the mid leads the low level by some ...but not that much. anyway, the CPC numbers show the same thing. dipping PNA out in time with an NAO remaining positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 oh, ha! okay - i thought you meant that seasonal model. come to think about it - is that even called the cdc? i think i got that wrong... I think it's the CF something - climate diagnostic center - yes, they do as good a job as any at arithmetic they're not lying, or inventing numbers. eof calculations are the same regardless of the university, provided the numbers going into the polynomial expressions are the same. having said that, yes there are differences in the agencies. the cpc, climate prognostic center for example, uses the mid level geopotential anomalies for their teleconnector derivatives. the cdc on the other hand, uses low-level wind flux anomalies. in the strict theoretical sense, it should not matter. the mid level geopotential heights cannot be disconnect from low-level wind fileds, as the modulation of the mid level is what ultimately drives the wind - duh. there may be some lag where the mid leads the low level by some ...but not that much. anyway, the CPC numbers show the same thing. dipping PNA out in time with an NAO remaining positive. so...they follow the GEFS, which has recently done a complete reversal in the tropics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Did the 12z ENS end winter again late in the period or keep it going like yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Color me confused.CDC=Centers for Disease Control (and Prevention) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 CDC=Centers for Disease Control (and Prevention)Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Gradient look on ensembles. Walk the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 LolZika! CPC,climate prediction center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Gradient look on ensembles. Walk the line.We talked about that being an outcome. Pretty climo for Mid February on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Gradient look on ensembles. Walk the line.Coastal, the talk on twitter this afternoon is that a strong El Niño pattern returns last week of this month and March. Do you see that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Coastal, the talk on twitter this afternoon is that a strong El Niño pattern returns last week of this month and March. Do you see that happening? I didn't really look into it. I'm on the road currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Zika! CPC,climate prediction center No, not CPC. CDC - as TIP stated, or more accurately NCDC. That's where is he getting his tele progs from. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z Ens still end winter day 11-15? Haven't seen them 00z op says it would continue well past day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 00z Ens still end winter day 11-15? Haven't seen them 00z op says it would continue well past day 10 Well yeah, the one after early next week is the big one anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ens 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Ens 11-15? Pretty large overrunning signal somewhere in the northeast in that time. Otherwise, not impressed by the look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Still having a difficult time buying into the total collapse of the Pacific pattern progged by the ECMWF ensembles for mid February. Latest bias corrected ECMWF MJO guidance continues to weaken the amplitude of the wave such that it's barely coherent propagating through octants 4-5-6. Additionally, the upper divergence signal in the central tropical Pacific will be much more significant than the IO/Indonesia convection, which leads me to believe the lower than normal heights will not shift into AK/British Columbian coast for D 10-15. Furthermore, the evolution of stratospheric heights continues to be suggestive of a tropospheric reflection of higher than normal geopotential heights across the Arctic [especially the Pacific side] southward into AK and western Canada. As the wave-1 induced displacement begins to re-orient the 10hpa vortex toward northern Europe, we see some stratospheric height rises occurring in the west based NAO region as well. This is why (IMO) you're starting to see some semblance of increased central / west based -NAO ridging in the Feb 10th-15th period. If not for the destruction of the Pacific on the ECMWF ensembles, it would be a very good pattern. Seems to be that it is overestimating the influence of the weak IO/W PAC MJO forcing. Other indicators don't necessarily concur w/ that progression. AAM tendency and GWO orbit also argues for Pacific Jet retraction, but not to the extent the LR ECMWF indicates, whereby a La Nina-like tropospheric circulation pattern develops. Stratosphere wise. Very interesting / unprecedented situation this year. Record temperatures up to 90N w/ a 70-75 K increase, record daily wave-1 amplitudes, and possibly record energy transfer / heat flux values, yet we will narrowly miss the technical 60N / 10hpa wind reversal definition necessary for a major SSW. Still, we're looking at one of the most significant zonal wind reductions in the records as far as stratospheric warming events. The unprecedented cold / strong state of the vortex this year will be able to survive against some of the strongest wave-1/displacement activity we've seen. Regardless, the sensible weather tropospheric evolution will generally be as if we did attain the major SSW displacement in my opinion (for the US). Europe will not see the benefits as they need to see the vortex driven further south to benefit from more northerly flow. Interesting month ahead I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 9m 9 minutes ago Interesting ECM EPS next week: Goes opposite of GEFS, deeper trough and much colder. Don't cancel winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Does the pattern look wet going forward too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ed Vallee says we torch after the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Ed Vallee says we torch after the 16th Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Overnight GEFS / EPS depict the changes I mentioned yesterday would begin to occur. We'll see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Not likely MJO FTL. This isn't driving the pattern at all. Looks like a very favorable pattern for the next 2 weeks or even beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Overnight GEFS / EPS depict the changes I mentioned yesterday would begin to occur. We'll see how things evolve. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gets go full fledged +PNA at the end of their runs. Euro ensembles do relax the pattern, but appear to try and retro low towards Aleutians and develop ridging out west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gets go full fledged +PNA at the end of their runs. Euro ensembles do relax the pattern, but appear to try and retro low towards Aleutians and develop ridging out west again.yes appears a warmer interlude is brief and could in fact be stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 When would it warm and torch? What time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 When would it warm and torch? What time period? Well possibly in the 11-15 day. It's not a torch verbatim. But it could be gradient like too. 6z gfs weenies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well possibly in the 11-15 day. It's not a torch verbatim. But it could be gradient like too. 6z gfs weenies out.Isotherm Tom has been the one steady captain on the boat. His skills at pattern recognition both LR and MR are top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 thoughts? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/695948374617493504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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