Isotherm Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 To no surprise, I encourage everyone to take a look at the difference b/t the 12z EPS geopotential height signal near Alaska in the D 11-15 range versus the 0z EPS run (around Feb 13th-15th). Significant difference. Does not drive the low heights eastward toward British Columbia as much, which consequently results in a much improved downstream signal over the East. 0Z EPS indicated warmer than normal temperatures D12-15, while the new run now has normal / slightly below and I'm confident is still correcting. All this talk of MJO ending winter in mid Feb is going to go down in proverbial flames in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 To no surprise, I encourage everyone to take a look at the difference b/t the 12z EPS geopotential height signal near Alaska in the D 11-15 range versus the 0z EPS run (around Feb 13th-15th). Significant difference. Does not drive the low heights eastward toward British Columbia as much, which consequently results in a much improved downstream signal over the East. 0Z EPS indicated warmer than normal temperatures D12-15, while the new run now has normal / slightly below and I'm confident is still correcting. All this talk of MJO ending winter in mid Feb is going to go down in proverbial flames in my opinion. If you pass the Tobin, please take Ray off the bridge, j/k Raymond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 To no surprise, I encourage everyone to take a look at the difference b/t the 12z EPS geopotential height signal near Alaska in the D 11-15 range versus the 0z EPS run (around Feb 13th-15th). Significant difference. Does not drive the low heights eastward toward British Columbia as much, which consequently results in a much improved downstream signal over the East. 0Z EPS indicated warmer than normal temperatures D12-15, while the new run now has normal / slightly below and I'm confident is still correcting. All this talk of MJO ending winter in mid Feb is going to go down in proverbial flames in my opinion. Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 43m43 minutes ago If the 12Z ECMWF EPS changes hold true, expect big changes to the ECMWF weekly forecast in the Week 2-4 space. 4 retweets4 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 43m43 minutes ago If the 12Z ECMWF EPS changes hold true, expect big changes to the ECMWF weekly forecast in the Week 2-4 space. 4 retweets4 likes Weakest part of the Euro package by far are those weeklies. Look at the changes from last week to this week, not saying they are wrong but they sure are funky. Last year they blew chunks the size of yours running down Wills car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 If you pass the Tobin, please take Ray off the bridge, j/k RaymondI def. melted, but never cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Weakest part of the Euro package by far are those weeklies. Look at the changes from last week to this week, not saying they are wrong but they sure are funky. Last year they blew chunks the size of yours running down Wills car. Well done on the graphic analogy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro ensembles are a good example of the struggle the models are probably having with the stratosphere in the N PAC vs the MJO. At any rate today's run would imply winter for the foreseeable future once we get past this next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The problem with the MJO, is not the logic behind it...it's the graphics people are using. The phase plots on NCEP are misleading. While we have forcing in the IO, a new area will form near the dateline. This will help continue ridging somewhere out west and/or into AK. Per Mike Vs plots, seems to me CCKW driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 You can see in the latitude 5S-5N band, the forcing is in two areas. Notice the area near and east of dateline forming on the GFS. The Euro, (can't post it here) forms an area right at the dateline. I think because of the two areas of forcing right now, those diagrams on NCEP go into the circle of death because of the net effect of cancelling out. In reality, they likely won't and can lead to false interpretation of what is really going on. http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The problem with the MJO, is not the logic behind it...it's the graphics people are using. The phase plots on NCEP are misleading. While we have forcing in the IO, a new area will form near the dateline. This will help continue ridging somewhere out west and/or into AK. Per Mike Vs plots, seems to me CCKW driven. You can see in the latitude 5S-5N band, the forcing is in two areas. Notice the area near and east of dateline forming on the GFS. The Euro, (can't post it here) forms an area right at the dateline. I think because of the two areas of forcing right now, those diagrams on NCEP go into the circle of death because of the net effect of cancelling out. In reality, they likely won't and can lead to false interpretation of what is really going on. http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html Strongly agree. There is MJO induced divergence signal being detected over the IO and near Indonesia over the next 7-10 days, but we also have forcing developing near the dateline contemporaneously. Notice on the CFS V2 plots the tendency for this MJO forcing to consolidate closer to the dateline as we approach mid February and beyond. The IO wave weakens as the new signal near the dateline becomes more dominant, in conjunction with the background low frequency / interseasonal ENSO induced convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The models really have no idea on how to handle the pattern. Now the 00z ensemble almost cancels winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The models really have no idea on how to handle the pattern. Now the 00z ensemble almost cancels winter again. MJO signal static vs the N PAC warm bubble has been the theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 MJO signal static vs the N PAC warm bubble has been the theme. GGEM Ens and the GEFS are polar opposites, EPS still keeps us in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GGEM Ens and the GEFS are polar opposites, EPS still keeps us in winter Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Scooyer said ENS end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 They started lowering heights out west and raising them in the east. Extrapolating wasn't a good look. However, I wouldn't lean any way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 They started lowering heights out west and raising them in the east. Extrapolating wasn't a good look. However, I wouldn't lean any way right now. Days 14-16 of the ENS have wobbled each run but keep being the last 2 days, big battles going on, also globally looks like ridging into AK wants to come back after an interlude. What could end up is there is a NE pocket of lower heights too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 MJO signal static vs the N PAC warm bubble has been the theme. I just have a general question about the LR, couldnt winter come back in March if the new ensembles are right and weeks 3 and 4 are bad? Or do the ensembles show March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I just have a general question about the LR, couldnt winter come back in March if the new ensembles are right and weeks 3 and 4 are bad? Or do the ensembles show March as well. They don't show March. Maybe the first few days on the weeklies. So yes, March could be a big snow month even if February craps out after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 They don't show March. Maybe the first few days on the weeklies. So yes, March could be a big snow month even if February craps out after mid month. Many thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 So...February is going to fizz out after a week of cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 The models really have no idea on how to handle the pattern. Now the 00z ensemble almost cancels winter again. So...February is going to fizz out after a week of cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The models really have no idea on how to handle the pattern. Now the 00z ensemble almost cancels winter again. Or ... the models have an idea on how to handle the pattern, and they're trying to tell us that winter is over soon There's been an emerging warm signal in the CDC numbers for several nights, much to many's chagrins no doubt. The PNA still climbs but has now become more of a 10 day long "spike" as opposed to statically remaining elevated when this new resurged PNA was first sniffed out... Currently the curve rises then falls all the way to neutral/negative by the end of week two, while the NAO stays statically positive. There is a weak -EPO in there but it is so collocated in time with the PNA it's far more likely that the PNA spike is flopping over into the EPO domain space a little and doesn't really reflect that character of that particular teleconnector. What that all means in practical terms is that we get what we get over the next 10 days to two weeks, and hope ...heh heh, but after that? Unless that signal changes, we probably lift heights in the east and open the door to early season continental chinook patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The take away is that we have very little idea how the pattern is going to evolve after day 10, correct ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The takeaway seems to be that it could go either way, with latest signs favoring warm LR. Hope that's close to accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The takeaway is that Tip dryhumps the CDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The takeaway is that Tip dryhumps the CDC. Zika virus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The takeaway is that Tip dryhumps the CDC. never once used it - it doesn't take into account polarward indexes ...i got no use for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 never once used it - it doesn't take into account polarward indexes ...i got no use for it. There's been an emerging warm signal in the CDC numbers for several nights Color me confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The takeaway seems to be that it could go either way, with latest signs favoring warm LR. Hope that's close to accurate. just speaking in terms of the GEFs... each model has its own teleconnector derivatives, so it's just one model type. the euro's ensemble derivative - for example - may or may not see the falling the PNA and the positive NAO persisting. my deal is that without a polarward field index, and one that correlates well with out weather type, signaling cold, in this day and age it gets hard ...real fast, imagining a base-line state that is not above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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