powderfreak Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The similarities so far to 1982-83 are pretty remarkable... this year and that year are both very Strong Ninos. Through this date they are both in the basement of almost all 60 years of data at the Mansfield Coop. But that winter, while never fully recovered, did have a snowy second half. But was also mixed with rain and melting (even at the summit) as you can see the spikes up with snowstorms and then down with rain or mild weather. Might be a prelude to the second half this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 That was a pretty cold Euro ensembles run post-day 9. PV ends up over SE Canada for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 So there is still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 All the long timers at the ski resort are convinced that the big ones are coming in like March and especially April. Our long-time Patrol Director who has watched snow on the mountain since the 1960s says these poor winters almost always go out with some ridiculous event or a series of snow events in April. That's not just anecdotal either, looking at past crap-tastic winters for Mount Mansfield, almost all of them had some big snowy periods post March 15th. Even recent winters... 2009-2010 wasn't that great, but the biggest snowfall for a lot of Vermont that winter was on April 27-28th when the mountains had 24-30" and above 700ft was 12"+. of paste. Then in 2011-2012 (another crappy winter) ended with a 30-inch event on the mountain in mid-April. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro weeklies pretty hideous for week 3/4. If we can muster something around D10 it's going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro weeklies pretty hideous for week 3/4. If we can muster something around D10 it's going to be ugly. Oh well. Maybe they turn more favorable as we move along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro weeklies pretty hideous for week 3/4. If we can muster something around D10 it's going to be ugly. They were favorable last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Euro weeklies pretty hideous for week 3/4. If we can muster something around D10 it's going to be ugly. Yep. Week 2 is our best shot at something. After that we go pretty zonal and loose the -epo and pna. Would probably be lights out for winter by then. The failed SSW has allowed the Mjo to run the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 As far as any SSW goes, it looks like the vortex tries to come back again at 10 and 50mb on the euro ensembles. Other than this massive warming for a few days...I don't see signs of prolonged SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We full on rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 As far as any SSW goes, it looks like the vortex tries to come back again at 10 and 50mb on the euro ensembles. Other than this massive warming for a few days...I don't see signs of prolonged SSW. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We full on rat Has nothing to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 I'm just at the point where I'm done....either something happens, or it doesn't. I'm ready to turn the page at this point. Take it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Exactly. Nobody has a clue. A couple good systems change everything. If they don't materialize it's no big deal. Maybe I can finish the season at 9.5 inches of snow-that would be amazing in and of itself. For those that are into the MJO, the phases for early March aren't indicative of spring weather either...that is if you believe the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When JB totally flipped the script and went full ratter yesterday..I was thinking..I bet he somehow gets to see an early release of the weeklies since Maue is part of Wxbell. And since the weeklies are all based on MJO voodoo,that's where he got that from yesterday. Because the weeklies did exactly what he was talking about yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 eps continues to look pretty bad after the 14th with zonal flow and lack of cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 JB doesn't get an early release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Gefs finally getting a clue that it isn't reversing into phase 3. Pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Gefs finally getting a clue that it isn't reversing into phase 3. Pretty bad Gefs are usually pretty bad with the MJO best to follow the eps lead. I agree that if the plots are correct stick a fork in early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 When JB totally flipped the script and went full ratter yesterday..I was thinking..I bet he somehow gets to see an early release of the weeklies since Maue is part of Wxbell. And since the weeklies are all based on MJO voodoo,that's where he got that from yesterday. Because the weeklies did exactly what he was talking about yesterday morning. When JB totally flipped the script and went full ratter yesterday..I was thinking..I bet he somehow gets to see an early release of the weeklies since Maue is part of Wxbell. And since the weeklies are all based on MJO voodoo,that's where he got that from yesterday. Because the weeklies did exactly what he was talking about yesterday morning. I just looked at his twitter feed and I didn't see anything about flipping the script. He is talking about cold it seems. Ryan M is tweeting about a "strat attack", and huge arctic outbreak. WPC maps show a hugger on Tuesday and what looks like an arctic blast coming down from Central Canada. Here is DT from last evening: "NO winter is NOT NOT over ! As I said last week in the last edition 3 WEEKENDS newsletter and over this past weekend... there is a very strong signal of arctic Blast coming AFTER FEB 15... this image is from a european Model ensemble and comes fromt the twitter feed of a leading energy Met from WSI." What are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 JB doesn't get an early release.How do you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I just looked at his twitter feed and I didn't see anything about flipping the script. He is talking about cold it seems. Ryan M is tweeting about a "strat attack", and huge arctic outbreak. WPC maps show a hugger on Tuesday and what looks like an arctic blast coming down from Central Canada. Here is DT from last evening: "NO winter is NOT NOT over ! As I said last week in the last edition 3 WEEKENDS newsletter and over this past weekend... there is a very strong signal of arctic Blast coming AFTER FEB 15... this image is from a european Model ensemble and comes fromt the twitter feed of a leading energy Met from WSI." What are you seeing? Sunscribers yesterday said he said pattern collapses to warm after the 15th and ended winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Sunscribers yesterday said he said pattern collapses to warm after the 15th and ended winter Well that is interesting because he didn't mention it. But it would make sense that he would say 2 very different things so that he could then claim victory. I think you are back to your "ending winter" rant. It fits the pattern and should result in an east coast snow storm in the next week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 How do you know? Because they take awhile to initialize and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I thought eps didn't look so bad and besides, it's keeping it at d14-15. But the mean still had higher heights sitting north of AK and enough chill here to do the deed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The one thing about the mjo plots that scooter posted for el ninos...reliability was low to extremely low for Feb and Mar in the relevant phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Mid to LR looks good to me. Active, maybe some borderline thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Because they take awhile to initialize and run. Also why would the ECMWF give just Maue and JB early releases of the weeklies? Probably would piss off the rest of their customer base. Unless, he's actually digging into the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Mid to LR looks good to me. Active, maybe some borderline thermals. I think it's a good pattern, at least for a little while. I just hope we don't flip totally mild in March but time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Also why would the ECMWF give just Maue and JB early releases of the weeklies? Probably would piss off the rest of their customer base. Unless, he's actually digging into the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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