40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Notice that the projected geopotential heights on the ECMWF ensemble mean for early February is an apparent reflection of the stratospheric state. Very strong wave-1 forcing (up to record daily high wave heights actually, around 1700 gpm at 10hpa) will be pushing the 10-70hpa vortex off the pole and toward northern Europe by the beginning of February. We have some bottom-up activity but also the true upper stratospheric perturbation via the wave-1. In response, 500mb heights quickly rise across the pole, forcing the return of the -AO. Depending upon the resolution of the stratospheric event, we may have a period in the first 7-10 days of February in which the AO is negative while contemporaneously the NAO persists in a positive state via the influence of the vortex sitting near NW Europe. As I posted last week, the anomalously strong condition of the vortex may prevent a major SSW, but I think a minor SSW will probably occur in that Jan 30-Feb 4 period. Typically a wave-1 of this extreme amplitude would have no problem inducing a major SSW, but this vortex isn't going down without a fight. Some ensemble members suggest a major SSW, but I'm doubting it right now. The ECMWF on the berlin site nearly reversed the zonal winds at 1 hpa at the beginning of February. Nonetheless, there will be more than sufficient stratospheric perturbation continuing to prevent the resumption of mean +NAM conditions in the troposphere. If we continue to shift that vortex over toward Europe, I would anticipate that modelling becomes more bullish on Greenland geopotential height rises as well. Tropospherically, Pacific +AAM, current GWO state, and location of strongest upper divergence are suggestive of the retrogression of the West Coast trough [Feb 1-2] back into the GOAK/Aleutians for February. Thus, the idea of +PNA / SE US trough is pretty high confidence for February. I think we'll attempt a neutral to potentially -EPO at times; climatologically, stronger Nino's feature their most conducive EPO pattern in February. We'll see. I'm fairly confident we're looking at a favorable PNA / EPO / AO state overall for early February. The NAO, again, may lag due to that vortex presence, but it too should eventually flip back negative. Bottom line, winter, I continue to think, just began snowfall wise in the Northeast. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Massive cutter on the ENS today. Any chance we can get that south? It went from Chi to BUF today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Massive cutter on the ENS today. Any chance we can get that south? It went from Chi to BUF today.. Been on the ENS for 3 days, we cut we bleed its all you need. LR looking better today . We saw the thaw it stuck in your craw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Been on the ENS for 3 days, we cut we bleed its all you need. LR looking better today . We saw the thaw it stuck in your craw. So was Friday's storm and that trended east, so the thinking is this will too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 In fact, Will had even mentioned the ENS had gone to a more cold overrunning look yesterday, so I was asking the mets if that idea was still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 In fact, Will had even mentioned the ENS had gone to a more cold overrunning look yesterday, so I was asking the mets if that idea was still possible Didn't really trend any better the last couple runs...there's a high up there, but if that energy is compact, the storm will cut right into it. That's just the reality with some of these overrunning type setups. There is more than enough time for it to trend colder...but of course that doesn't mean it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 In fact, Will had even mentioned the ENS had gone to a more cold overrunning look yesterday, so I was asking the mets if that idea was still possible Of course its possible day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Deep trough carved in the west. Definitely a cutter risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Weeklies a very +PNA like. Also ridging north of AK so it's a bit on the -AO side, despite +NAO. It has a lot of Atlantic ridging SE of Newfoundland, so hoping this means storm track near East Coast. Indeed week 3 is wet and week 4 near normal for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Sounds very good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 All I see from HM is favorable talk of February, after the thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 All I see from HM is favorable talk of February, after the thaw.it's on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Weeklies a very +PNA like. Also ridging north of AK so it's a bit on the -AO side, despite +NAO. It has a lot of Atlantic ridging SE of Newfoundland, so hoping this means storm track near East Coast. Indeed week 3 is wet and week 4 near normal for precip.How would temps be manifested in this scenario...BN maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Sipprell just torches us right thru day talking about possible record warmth, inside runners and rain. Have a feeling that tune may change as there's signs of those cutters sliding south of us on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Sipprell just torches us right thru day talking about possible record warmth, inside runners and rain. Have a feeling that tune may change as there's signs of those cutters sliding south of us on the ensembles Ensembles are a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ensembles are a furnace.Why are you looking at models?I'd actually take the "furnace" look during the coldest stretch of the year if it's not going to snow. It's not like we are talking 50s and 60s. Eps looked good at the end of the run, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Ensembles are a furnace.Gefs are not a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Sipprell just torches us right thru day talking about possible record warmth, inside runners and rain. Have a feeling that tune may change as there's signs of those cutters sliding south of us on the ensembles Quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Gefs are not a torch They are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 They are.Disagree. Can see how everything could be squashed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Disagree. Can see how everything could be squashed south The overall pattern is mild, even if you pull a wedgie. Enjoy the bare ground coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The overall pattern is mild, even if you pull a wedgie. Enjoy the bare ground coming. Does the warm up still look short term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Does the warm up still look short term? Looks like the pattern gets going again after the 1st week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 How about the long range? Still cold/stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 The overall pattern is mild, even if you pull a wedgie. Enjoy the bare ground coming.Im not as bullish as you are for a week of 50's.Do you think it will melt all of DC and NYC snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Looks like the pattern gets going again after the 1st week of February. Thanks. We only received 11.5 inches last storm so still hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I received 8, so I'm still hungry too lol. Hopefully we get some winter in February for all of SNE. The Mid Atlantic Snow Geese got fed very well with the Blizzard over the weekend, not so much up this way. And for the people to the Northeast of CT, it's even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 How about the long range? Still cold/stormy? Yeah after the D8-9 system, the pattern still looks quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I received 8, so I'm still hungry too lol. Hopefully we get some winter in February for all of SNE. The Mid Atlantic Snow Geese got fed very well with the Blizzard over the weekend, not so much up this way. And for the people to the Northeast of CT, it's even worse.ECT and points E and NE go theirs last winter. I'm not feeling sorry for them one bit.I'm hoping for one more big system that brings folks west of the river in ma and ct some joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah, we +PNA after day 10. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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