CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Anafrontal was a hallucination. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Why are people surprised? As As much as we wanted to believe Ray's forecast, it had ratter written all over from the start with all of those ++ temp Anamoly maps showing in the NE. Anything over 30" for the year is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Pretty much. As soon as soon as I started hearing "anafront",, and "wave along the front", I checked out on that. I think it was like Thursday... Anyway, I do not like the fact that guidance seems to have shaken hands on the fact that the AK lobe will now be non existent, and that the long ranger deal will be an inside runner....yea, yea....10 days out, but the synoptic layout would need to do a 180* on that. That would take us to 2/11, and at that point, my attention would shifting south to Fort Myers, and it would have nothing to do with tracking GOM moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Why are people surprised? As As much as we wanted to believe Ray's forecast, it had ratter written all over from the start with all of those ++ temp Anamoly maps showing in the NE. Anything over 30" for the year is a bonus. Well, it doesn't look good, but only a moron would pass judgment at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Well, it doesn't look good, but only a moron would pass judgment at this point.You can't go two minutes without insulting someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Still got some time, but long range guidance went south last couple runs . It's slipping away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm not down on the pattern. It still looks very nice. Doesn't guarantee anything though. The one thing though that shows up from time to time on the solutions is how much we could use a -NAO to give us margin for error. Even the cutter this week would look quite nice synoptically for us if we had a -NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 You can't go two minutes without insulting someone I didn't insult anyone. He implied that it was probably going to rat, which at this point is true.....I merely replied that whoever thinks two weeks out of a two month period is sufficient to render a final verdict is a moron. In much the same manner that anyone who feels as though this has been a great winter is a moron. You have some preconceived notions of me, and in your haste to validate those, you often skim through the content/context of my posts. The issue is partly yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 I'm not down on the pattern. It still looks very nice. Doesn't guarantee anything though. The one thing though that shows up from time to time on the solutions is how much we could use a -NAO to give us margin for error. Even the cutter this week would look quite nice synoptically for us if we had a -NAO block. Yep. Just frustrating to see nothing modeled on the vast majority of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The modeling is bi-polar for gods sake. The very next run it will show what we want. 6z GFS is a weenie run. 12z will be as boring as can be. It changes every run...period. 24 hours ago the Euro showed us a monster. Today the 6z GFS redeveloped every shortwave and pounds the area with snow. There is no continuity at all. One run theres a storm, the next no storm. Again, we have tons of SW's, it would be amazing if all of them failed, but it could very well happen. Also, I think if one does pop, it will be short notice. Pattern still looks ripe...no guarantees, but ripe nonetheless like Will just said. However for most all of us, it's found every way not to snow, so we will see if that trend keeps up for the second half of this winter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Noyes Feb forecast. Disclaimer*** don't view if you like cold and snow http://www.necn.com/weather/video/NECN_020116_weather_6am_NECN-367186551.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 For anyone writing off winter if the next 15 days fail to produce and hoping for a quick jump to spring, I would mention that the Euro would have the MJO just entering into phase 8 at the end of February/beginning of March. That, coupled with the delayed effects of any stratospheric goings-on, could end up flushing hopes of an early spring down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 For anyone writing off winter if the next 15 days fail to produce and hoping for a quick jump to spring, I would mention that the Euro would have the MJO just entering into phase 8 at the end of February/beginning of March. That, coupled with the delayed effects of any stratospheric goings-on, could end up flushing hopes of an early spring down the toilet. An SSW could make March a pretty good month for winter wx....we've had some big El Nino Marches in the past. They can be boom or bust, but blocking setting up would certainly favor the former....it could cause February to end strongly as well...that's getting far out there, but still something to think about. I don't think the month with be a "cold" month here...mostly because we start off these first few days in the furnace, but I don't really see a torchy pattern after that (any cutters not withstanding)...we'll have an arctic shot or two with the EPO block the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 An SSW could make March a pretty good month for winter wx....we've had some big El Nino Marches in the past. They can be boom or bust, but blocking setting up would certainly favor the former....it could cause February to end strongly as well...that's getting far out there, but still something to think about. I don't think the month with be a "cold" month here...mostly because we start off these first few days in the furnace, but I don't really see a torchy pattern after that (any cutters not withstanding)...we'll have an arctic shot or two with the EPO block the way it is. The pattern is what it is. It offers the opportunity, but it doesn't mean we have to cash in at all. The emotional posts in here are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 The pattern is what it is. It offers the opportunity, but it doesn't mean we have to cash in at all. The emotional posts in here are interesting. Agreed. I think the JB report swayed a lot of people to a general negative view. I just hope not a repeat of 94/95. I did think the 6z GFS held promise with the long range clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Noyes outlook was pretty vague imo. the fact that we have seen models show a monster miller A one day B another and zero another for the same time period is hilarious. all the attention these anafrontal phantoms get is even more hilarious... my definition of a ratter is 50 percent or less or normal snowfall, I am not convinced of that yet and the odds of us not getting a few storms of decent magnitude is low. I think the 6z gfs has the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Good points Codfishsnowman. I like JB, but he's been optomistic all winter, and not much has come of it either. Now today he's negative, well I'll take my chances with this upcoming pattern and he can be negative all he wants, cuz maybe that will mean the opposite lol. Personally, nobody really seems to have a handle on what's coming next. His counterpart Joe DeLeo just said its going to get stormy and cold for the east after the first few days of February, and this was said just yesterday. So it just goes to show us, it's pretty much a crap-shoot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't understand what happened? Why is everyone so down? I thought the GEFS yesterday looked great right around the 10th or so. What changed so drastically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Good points Codfishsnowman. I like JB, but he's been optomistic all winter, and not much has come of it either. Now today he's negative, well I'll take my chances with this upcoming pattern and he can be negative all he wants, cuz maybe that will mean the opposite lol. Personally, nobody really seems to have a handle on what's coming next. His counterpart Joe DeLeo just said its going to get stormy and cold for the east after the first few days of February, and this was said just yesterday. So it just goes to show us, it's pretty much a crap-shoot at this point. When you have no NAO blocking, the storm track for us becomes like a firehose not being anchored down...the tracks can spray all over the place. The one good thing is that the -EPO/+PNA should provide fairly consistent cold air sources and keep the pattern favorable for storms in the general region...but no guarantees that we avoid cutters or tainted events. We can do very well in these patterns too...we had similar setups in late Jan/early Feb 2003, 2nd half of Feb 2008, Feb 1975, and Feb 1952...conversely we had late Feb 1980, Feb 1970, and Feb 2004 which didn't really produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Anafrontal was a hallucination. I was looking past that all along, It never pans out up here and not even worth a glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 When you have no NAO blocking, the storm track for us becomes like a firehose not being anchored down...the tracks can spray all over the place. The one good thing is that the -EPO/+PNA should provide fairly consistent cold air sources and keep the pattern favorable for storms in the general region...but no guarantees that we avoid cutters or tainted events. We can do very well in these patterns too...we had similar setups in late Jan/early Feb 2003, 2nd half of Feb 2008, Feb 1975, and Feb 1952...conversely we had late Feb 1980, Feb 1970, and Feb 2004 which didn't really produce. Completely agree Will. Great points, and it's how I feel as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Noyes outlook was pretty vague imo. the fact that we have seen models show a monster miller A one day B another and zero another for the same time period is hilarious. all the attention these anafrontal phantoms get is even more hilarious... my definition of a ratter is 50 percent or less or normal snowfall, I am not convinced of that yet and the odds of us not getting a few storms of decent magnitude is low. I think the 6z gfs has the right idea I was looking past that all along, It never pans out up here and not even worth a glance Anafrontals are a joke....cousin of inverted troughs from the fraud family. Some tried to spin it into something else, but the mud has now washed the lipstick right off of that pig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Anafrontals are a joke....cousin of inverted troughs from the fraud family. Some tried to spin it into something else, but the mud has now washed the lipstick right off of that pig. Hey, that's all PWM has for snow this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Hey, that's all PWM has for snow this season! Me, too...pretty much lol But I would not want to depend upon them anywhere outside of ME lol More often than not, it is just the model figuring out that that formerly modeled, phased blizzard is not happen. The waves aren't going to hook up, and thus there will be no full fledged met porn, but you'll still get to view a reach around as a small consolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Me, too...pretty much lol But I would not want to depend upon them anywhere outside of ME lol More often than not, it is just the model figuring out that that formerly modeled, phased blizzard is not happen. The waves aren't going to hook up, and thus there will be no full fledged met porn, but you'll still get to view a reach around as a small consolation. The atmospheric dry HJ? When you're going well, like last year, it's a nice bonus, but when things are bad it's more like wasted potential. We'll take our chances as they come. Chances are we don't get shut out, and normal snowfall from this point forward would safely put BOS outside of the top 20-25 worst seasons ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Look at the summer....gorgeous sunny days with no heat or humidity. End of August comes and it goes nuts with humidity and big time heat in SNE-right through September. Who knows, maybe the witner will go the same route(ramp up towards the end)?? It wouldn't surprise me if it did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 The atmospheric dry HJ? When you're going well, like last year, it's a nice bonus, but when things are bad it's more like wasted potential. We'll take our chances as they come. Chances are we don't get shut out, and normal snowfall from this point forward would safely put BOS outside of the top 20-25 worst seasons ever. I don't care how bad the pattern is....late season bowling balls can and do come out of nowhere with little notice. Funny things go down when wave lengths shorten and the sun injects energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I don't care how bad the pattern is....late season bowling balls can and do come out of nowhere with little notice. Funny things go down when wave lengths shorten and the sun injects energy. All the long timers at the ski resort are convinced that the big ones are coming in like March and especially April. Our long-time Patrol Director who has watched snow on the mountain since the 1960s says these poor winters almost always go out with some ridiculous event or a series of snow events in April. That's not just anecdotal either, looking at past crap-tastic winters for Mount Mansfield, almost all of them had some big snowy periods post March 15th. Even recent winters... 2009-2010 wasn't that great, but the biggest snowfall for a lot of Vermont that winter was on April 27-28th when the mountains had 24-30" and above 700ft was 12"+. of paste. Then in 2011-2012 (another crappy winter) ended with a 30-inch event on the mountain in mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 All the long timers at the ski resort are convinced that the big ones are coming in like March and especially April. Our long-time Patrol Director who has watched snow on the mountain since the 1960s says these poor winters almost always go out with some ridiculous event or a series of snow events in April. That's not just anecdotal either, looking at past crap-tastic winters for Mount Mansfield, almost all of them had some big snowy periods post March 15th. Even recent winters... 2009-2010 wasn't that great, but the biggest snowfall for a lot of Vermont that winter was on April 27-28th when the mountains had 24-30" and above 700ft was 12"+. of paste. Then in 2011-2012 (another crappy winter) ended with a 30-inch event on the mountain in mid-April. Seems like you explained pretty well why they are having recency bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Seems like you explained pretty well why they are having recency bias. Nah, you can see it in the snow depth graphs from similar winters. The poor start winters historically come in pretty good late in the season (some would call it too late). There's definitely something there...not saying it has to happen this season, but similar winters to this have had at least some fun periods late in the winter. 1982-83 is probably the best analog right now and was also a strong Nino. That had a big April, and even a solid May event as you can see by the last spike up. 2006-2007 has been tossed around a lot, too. That was just a big Feb-Apr in general, but April was a huge month that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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