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February Pattern Disco


40/70 Benchmark

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Gefs d10:

image.jpg

Pattern collapses by d16:

image.jpg

Remember on January 1 the GFS thought the pattern would collapse in the day 13-16 range and in reality the collapse didn't happen until the 25th and it will last an entire week, the GFS has been largely anti eastern trof this winter in the long range whenever most other long range models have shown it

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6z Ensembles eased off the big SE ridge and have more of a -NAO. We'll want the -NAO if we get some sort of troughing in the SW US that raises heights out east.  I don't see the need for being snake bitten while looking ahead...at least here in New England. Nothing stands out to me as "Oh noes!" when I look ahead.  I can't determine storm tracks 8 days out, nevermind 2 weeks out.

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6z Ensembles eased off the big SE ridge and have more of a -NAO. We'll want the -NAO if we get some sort of troughing in the SW US that raises heights out east. I don't see the need for being snake bitten while looking ahead...at least here in New England. Nothing stands out to me as "Oh noes!" when I look ahead. I can't determine storm tracks 8 days out, nevermind 2 weeks out.

now that you said it PF will be in to concur lol
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wait wut pattern collapsed? My bad on the surface temp day 16 I was looking at the day 12-16

Yes... The more reliable 11--15 avg looks good. I was just commenting initially on how it seemed to collapse at the end of the run and "better hope it's wrong" which may well be the case. For even musing in that direction, people swooped in and said no.

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Yes... The more reliable 11--15 avg looks good. I was just commenting initially on how it seemed to collapse at the end of the run and "better hope it's wrong" which may well be the case. For even musing in that direction, people swooped in and said no.

hey Doc this is what I saw for surface temp departure day 16 0Zrun

Screenshot_2016-01-31-13-05-26.png

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Here we are Feb 1.. Most of us in CNE and SNE are single digits in snowfall . The cold shot end of week/weekend has turned into highs near 40. The anafront storm is gone, there's no storms in the pipeline that look promising thru day 10.Ensembles seem to favor some monster OV storm while we rain.. As much as I wanted the rat winter forecast to fail..I'll pull a quote from a good friend.. "I'd be stunned" if this winter doesn't finish full rat

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