OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Can't say I'm a big fan of the Atlantic ridging. Pattern looks to favor interior/northern new england to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Larry Cosgrove Super active storm track along the eastern seaboard coupled with frequent Arctic intrusions for nearly all of February and the first half of March. How has he done since November with his forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ski season help on the way ? -AO/-EPO/-WPO - so direct Arctic air with EC ridging . Not pretty for us down at 40/70 , but looks good for you guys .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Can't say I'm a big fan of the Atlantic ridging. Pattern looks to favor interior/northern new england to me. Forkyfork mentioned the same thing in the NYC forum yesterday so it obviously is of some concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Gefs d10: image.jpg Pattern collapses by d16: image.jpg Remember on January 1 the GFS thought the pattern would collapse in the day 13-16 range and in reality the collapse didn't happen until the 25th and it will last an entire week, the GFS has been largely anti eastern trof this winter in the long range whenever most other long range models have shown it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z Ensembles eased off the big SE ridge and have more of a -NAO. We'll want the -NAO if we get some sort of troughing in the SW US that raises heights out east. I don't see the need for being snake bitten while looking ahead...at least here in New England. Nothing stands out to me as "Oh noes!" when I look ahead. I can't determine storm tracks 8 days out, nevermind 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 6z Ensembles eased off the big SE ridge and have more of a -NAO. We'll want the -NAO if we get some sort of troughing in the SW US that raises heights out east. I don't see the need for being snake bitten while looking ahead...at least here in New England. Nothing stands out to me as "Oh noes!" when I look ahead. I can't determine storm tracks 8 days out, nevermind 2 weeks out.now that you said it PF will be in to concur lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Can't say I'm a big fan of the Atlantic ridging. Pattern looks to favor interior/northern new england to me.From your lips to gods ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 now that you said it PF will be in to concur lol Haha I'm just glad you are thinking of me so much these days. "I've got PF on the mind..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Haha I'm just glad you are thinking of me so much these days. "I've got PF on the mind..." You must be NB to him. Not sure how to take that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 You must be NB to him. Not sure how to take that?wait y'all better look back I post you post PF concurs with you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 also 850 to surface is BNPants on fire.Admittedly silly talking d16 but here's the surface temp anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Pants on fire. Admittedly silly talking d16 but here's the surface temp anomaly. image.jpg wait wut pattern collapsed? My bad on the surface temp day 16 I was looking at the day 12-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 wait wut pattern collapsed? My bad on the surface temp day 16 I was looking at the day 12-16 Yes... The more reliable 11--15 avg looks good. I was just commenting initially on how it seemed to collapse at the end of the run and "better hope it's wrong" which may well be the case. For even musing in that direction, people swooped in and said no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yes... The more reliable 11--15 avg looks good. I was just commenting initially on how it seemed to collapse at the end of the run and "better hope it's wrong" which may well be the case. For even musing in that direction, people swooped in and said no.hey Doc this is what I saw for surface temp departure day 16 0Zrun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 hey Doc this is what I saw for surface temp departure day 16 0Zrun Why is that difference from mine? I was using 0Z/31 gefs which at this point is outdated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Why is that difference from mine? I was using 0Z/31 gefs which at this point is outdated.lol who knows, my feeling is GEFS is playing catch up, look at 6z while 12z comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 12Z,surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Gonna take a colder month for BOS not to be warmest winter ever. Might be top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Gonna take a colder month for BOS not to be warmest winter ever. Might be top 5.Low heating costs + low HDD = $$$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 I bet February ends up aoa but not as robust departure wise vs December or January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Man, the Canadian SIPs has a mean EPO for February....we're about a degree above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 How big of a departure was Jan.? I thought it ran around normal, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 How big of a departure was Jan.? I thought it ran around normal, no? Like +2-3* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Gonna take a colder month for BOS not to be warmest winter ever. Might be top 5.Coldest winter evah followed by warmest evah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 How big of a departure was Jan.? I thought it ran around normal, no?+6.3F up here...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Here we are Feb 1.. Most of us in CNE and SNE are single digits in snowfall . The cold shot end of week/weekend has turned into highs near 40. The anafront storm is gone, there's no storms in the pipeline that look promising thru day 10.Ensembles seem to favor some monster OV storm while we rain.. As much as I wanted the rat winter forecast to fail..I'll pull a quote from a good friend.. "I'd be stunned" if this winter doesn't finish full rat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Just remember who gave you the term ratter from dead ratter....from this winter blows dead rats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2016 Share Posted February 1, 2016 Just remember who gave you the term ratter from dead ratter....from this winter blows dead rats. That would be you. we've got 29 days left lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Anafrontal was a hallucination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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